Caulfield Guineas day is upon us, the first of the five consecutive Saturdays of the biggest racing Melbourne, and Australia, has to offer.
The Caulfield Guineas for the boys, and Thousand Guineas for the girls, are only two of the four Group 1s on the day, and we’ll look at them tomorrow.
The other two are the Caulfield Stakes for the middle distance weight-for-age gallopers, and the Toorak Handicap for the milers.
The Caulfield Stakes has attracted the definition of a small but select field. Eight horses engaged, with seven of them rated between 112-116.
Entirely Platinum is the only horse falling below that rating spread, at a lowly 107, and even he has three Group 1 WFA placings to his credit. He’ll be the leader in this race, backing up from the Epsom, and it isn’t beyond his capability to steal the race as the despised outsider if he gets to run as he likes up front.
Kermadec is the Cox Plate favourite, and also has that honour in the Caulfield Stakes. He’s now a dual Group 1 winner, backing up his Doncaster win in the autumn with his first WFA victory in the George Main last start. He had been knocking on the door, and was always going to be the horse to beat in that race, but now has to bring his class to Caulfield for the first time.
Kermadec beat Royal Descent into second in the George Main, and we saw her measure right up down south in the Turnbull last Sunday. The Sydney form looks to hold the aces over the Vics at this stage, and he’s rightfully the one to beat.
Pornichet only just fell short of denying Kermadec in the George Main, and will appreciate the step up to 2000 metres, a distance range he’s unbeaten at in Australia, from three starts (including the 2150m Toowoomba Cup).
Our man Brisburgh Phil keeps telling me how much further he’ll improve on a good track, and he’ll certainly see that on Saturday. He’s primed and ready to make his mark, but I just wonder if the Mackinnon might be more his race, just that half a grade below the absolute best.
Fawkner is the horse the Sydneysiders will have the toughest time holding out. He’s finished in the quinella at his last six Group 1s when racing between the distances of 1600 to 2400 metres, winning three of them.
He’s a tough, consistent, classy animal, who always puts himself in the right spot. He’s generally a more devastating horse when off a freshen, rather than running every two weeks, and his Underwood Stakes second was fractionally disappointing, but he really started savaging the line once he overcame a fairly lengthy flat spot.
Mongolian Khan has been beaten less than two lengths in his two runs so far this campaign, in the Makybe Diva and Underwood. The Caulfield Cup is his grand final, and this should have him cherry ripe for it, where he’ll be a legitimate winning chance. He might just lack the tactical speed and sprint to win this though.
Contributer has been a disappointment down in Melbourne so far, after blazing a trail through the Sydney WFA races in the autumn. We keep hearing that he’ll take improvement, but he needs to find a few lengths off his Underwood run, and then some.
The globe-trotting Criterion is the interesting runner, first-up from a seven-week let-up after a plain England campaign.
His three Group 1 victories have all been on genuine rain affected ground, and his good track wins were all as a two-year-old. He is probably the WFA horse in the country on the wet, but just one of several very good ones we have on the dry.
Happy Trails is backing up from the Turnbull Stakes after never really seeing daylight in the straight there. He has a habit of finding trouble in his races, but then coming out the next start and surprising at longer odds.
He’s going as well as he ever has, and is yet another legitimate chance, in a race full of them.
Entirely Platinum should lead them up, from Pornichet, with Fawkner also sitting handy, probably being tracked by Kermadec. It’s going to be a great race.
Selections
1. Kermadec
2. Fawkner
3. Pornichet
4. Happy Trails
The Toorak looks to be a race of few chances, with the key players coming almost exclusively from the Rupert Clarke, which is traditional pathway.
Stratum Star won that race in gutsy fashion after a lovely ride from a wide barrier by Craig Williams. He’s the perfect blend of class, honesty and stoutness for handicap racing as a four-year-old, and it won’t surprise to see him mature into a genuine WFA horse eventually.
He can certainly do the Rupert Clarke and Toorak double, last achieved by his stablemate Trust In A Gust last year. He’ll sit a cosy fifth or sixth from Barrier 2, and won’t spend a penny with the extra weight he now has to carry.
Disposition will be the hardest horse to beat, meeting Stratum Star 1.5 kilograms better for the narrow defeat last start. He’s a good horse, and will also get a nice run in transit sitting midfield from gate seven.
Lucky Hussler, the toppie, is still looking for a way out in the Rupert Clarke, and went to the line basically untested, but only finishing a length and a half from the above quinella. He meets them both better at the weights for it, and is a major player also drawn to get a beautiful run.
Strawberry Boy is something of a distance specialist in weaker races than this, albeit often carrying weight in doing so. He’ll keep the rest honest, but might just find a few too good for him again, especially as he’s likely to have some company up front.
Hi World wasn’t quite up to WFA racing, and is coming in off a Memsie, Makybe Diva, Underwood formline, where he was beaten in all three races by a combined six-and-a-half lengths. That reads very, very well for a horse dropping back to 54.5 kilograms in a handicap, especially one paying around the $15 mark.
He’s the one to beat of the on-pace brigade, and his chances may be tempo related.
Noble Protector was flying against the mares in the autumn, but was as plain as could be first up in the Let’s Elope. She’s had a month between since that run, with a trial in between, and could be a chance if she recaptures the form from last campaign, but I’d need to see it before backing her at single-figures odds against the boys in this class.
A horse like Jacquinot Bay is probably the best genuine bolter in the race. Akavoroun and Abidewithme also have some claims at healthy, double-figure odds.
The tempo should be strong, with a few genuine speed horses engaged, and those racing just off it will get first crack, but the backmarkers will likely have the last look at them, and it will be just whether they have the class to get there to beat them all.
Selections
1. Disposition
2. Stratum Star
3. Lucky Hussler
4. Hi World (the one to beat if the race is run at a moderate tempo)
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