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The penultimate round of the National Rugby Championship is upon us, and by my count, three of the four games can have some degree of bearing on the top four and the potential playoff combatants.
We already know Brisbane City and the Uni of Canberra Vikings are safe; both remain unbeaten after six games, both have five bonus points, and their overall records are so similar it’s not funny. Brisbane regained top spot last weekend, managing to bridge a 56-point gap between them and the Vikings.
And so it’s with a special kind of anticipation that these two teams are meeting this weekend. If the draw wasn’t locked in at the start of the season, there is no doubt in my mind that Fox Sports would want to show this game.
Many see this game as a full dress rehearsal to the final on the last weekend of October, and on current evidence it’s hard to argue that point. But we also had similar thoughts of Melbourne Rising last year, didn’t we…
It really does shape as a brilliant Round 8 of the NRC, and here’s a quick summary of each team’s finals scenario for the remaining two weeks of the competition:
1. Brisbane (29 points)
If they beat Canberra then they will probably finish first and claim hosting rights. They play eighth-placed Greater Sydney in Round 9.
2. Canberra (29)
Beat Brisbane and they probably finish first and claim hosting rights. Play seventh-placed Queensland Country next week.
3. Sydney (19)
Have the bye this week, and simply must beat Melbourne next week to retain their current top-four spot. Could actually finish as low as sixth or seventh.
4. NSW Country (13)
Beat both Melbourne this week and North Harbour next week and they’ll qualify, and could finish as high as third. Lose one of the two, and they’re doing the maths and sweating on other games.
5. Melbourne (12)
Must win both games against NSW Country and Sydney. They can’t bridge the gap to the Stars with only one win.
6. Perth (11)
Having the bye next week means they’re done for in 2015. Can only reach 16 points, and that won’t be enough.
7. Queensland Country (9)
Can get to 19 points with two bonus-point wins, but will require results going their way and possibly a miracle; they play Canberra in the final round.
8. Greater Sydney (7)
Thanks for playing Rams, here’s your 2015 certificate.
9. North Harbour (6)
Just line up behind the Rams, thanks Rays…
The weekly reminder: To watch the three games over the weekend, you’ll need full access to the Fox Sports website, or to the Fox Sport NOW app on Apple TV. NRC Live streams can be accessed by Fox Sports Digital subscribers and News Plus subscribers, or they can be viewed a day after the game at www.BuildcorpNRC.com.au.
Most Foxtel subscribers qualify for free Fox Sports Digital access but need to generate a new username and password by clicking here.
You cannot access the streams with just your Foxtel TV login details.
To the preview…
Tonight: Melbourne Rising vs NSW Country Eagles, at Simonds Stadium in Geelong; 7:35pm AEDT
Darren Coleman has embarked on a mini-tour late in the season, getting his team over to Perth ahead of time, and then staying on a few more days after the game before heading to Geelong through Melbourne yesterday.
He’s sticking with the same XV that started in the west, and has made only one change to the bench, with Cameroonian prop Dashville Kuate onto the bench for Andrew Collins. I’m hearing wacky whispers about a couple of young Eagles being held back by the Waratahs, too, and being put through pre-season programs, rather than playing in the NRC. Crazy, if true.
Zane Hilton was happy with the way his young side pushed Canberra for 60 minutes last week, but he’ll be very happy to have Pat Leafa, Colby Fainga’a, and Lopeti Timani back in his pack this week. Keep an eye on young inside centre Sione Tuipulotu, who was amazing last week in a beaten side; I think he made the gain line every time he carried.
The Rising’s well travelled training ground goalposts only just resettled back in Melbourne after their trip to Morwell, and now they’ve been trucked south-west and put in place on the home turf of the Geelong Cats. Should be interesting on a number of fronts.
Melbourne: (1-15) Cruze Ah-Nau, Pat Leafa, Duncan Chubb, Sam Jeffries, Lopeti Timani, Luke Jones, Jordy Reid, Colby Fainga’a, Ben Meehan, Jack Debreczeni (C), Stacey Ili, Sione Tuipulotu, Dom Shipperley, Justin Marsters, Jonah Placid.
Replacements: Mitch Andrews, Mike Tyler, Tom Moloney, Steve Cummins, Pom Simona, Maradona Farao, Lloyd Johansson, Filipe Vilitati.
NSW Country: (15-1) Dane Maraki, Tom Sexton, David Feao, Tom Staniforth, Nick Palmer, Beau Robinson, Mark Baldwin, Sam Figg, Mitch Short, Jono Lance (C), Charlie Clifton, David Horwitz, Ed Stubbs, Jarome Mackenzie, Andrew Kellaway.
Replacements: Peter Nau, Jerome Vaai, Dashville Kuate, Jock Armstrong, BJ Edwards, Angus Pulver, Tom Merritt, Jack Pennington.
Referee: Matt O’Brien
Tickets: Tickets at the gate, or via www.melbournerising.com.au. Adults $15, kids under 12 free.
Saturday: University of Canberra Vikings vs Brisbane, at Viking Park in Canberra; 2:00pm AEDT
I had a coffee with Vikings coach Brad Harris yesterday, and he told me that only training track mishaps would force changes to what has been a settled side for several weeks now. Harris said the Vikings have been working hard this week on their accuracy in the opposition half, which will be especially important against a City side that transition faster from turnover to counter attack than any other team in the competition.
Back on top of the table after their NRC record 58-0 thumping of the Sydney Stars – no team had ever been held scoreless before – my northern spies tell me City look set to go with the same side, too, but with the welcome addition of Liam Gill. This will mean one of their really impressive young flankers, Luke Beauchamp or Waita Setu, will drop back to the bench, but still, what a problem to have.
As per the guidelines, the Horan-Little Shield will again be on the line in this match, after City successfully defended it at home in Rounds 4 and 5, and again in Sydney last week.
Teams to be announced today. Referee is Andrew Lees, and the commentary will be exceptional.
Tickets: Tickets at the gate, or via this link. Adults from just $10, kids $5.
Saturday: North Harbour Rays vs Queensland Country, at Pittwater Rugby Park in Sydney; 3:00pm AEDT
North Harbour have used so many players this season that they don’t really have any players left to make further changes to the side that narrowly lost to Greater Sydney last Thursday night. Fullback Hamish Angus went off last week with a back complaint, but is said to have overcome it reasonably well and should be right for this match.
Queensland Country are coming off the bye last week and look all set to welcome flyhalf Sam Green back into their side, after he missed the Round 6 win over NSW Country in waterlogged Newcastle. But curiously, my spies tell me he may not line up at No.10, which suggests that young Dion Taumata will hold his spot. This is a massive game for Country, who simply must win both remaining games to be a remote chance of sneaking fourth spot, as mentioned above.
Teams to be announced today. The referee is Ed Martin.
Tickets: Available at the gate, adults $20, concession and students $15, and kids under 17 free. For lovers of big blokes in space, Manly will also take on Warringah in a sevens curtain-raiser with a twist: players must meet a pre-game weigh-in, with a 100 kilogram minimum required to take part! And hang around afterwards, too, for a live band and gourmet barbeque.
Saturday: Greater Sydney Rams vs Perth Spirit, at Concord Oval in Sydney; 3:00pm AEDT
The Rams were rapt to break the duck last week against the Rays, and have this week taken a lighter approach after a pretty physical game. They took four days off, and only had their first session on Tuesday night (at another new training ground), hoping that it might help several guys overcome some general soreness.
Lock Marcus Carbone is the only player in any doubt, he’s nursing sore ribs after a friendly fire clash with teammate Hugh Roach. Should be a largely unchanged side, save for perhaps some prop rotation. Opposition goal-kickers beware of the Horned Army’s “Lolly Legs” chant from the sideline.
After mounting a decent comeback against NSW Country last weekend at home, the Spirit just couldn’t quite finish the job, which means with the bye next week they now cannot make the finals. Centre Junior Rasolea was whacked with a three-week suspension after a very ordinary-looking tip tackle, too. But Kyle Godwin will be a decent replacement, coming back into the side at 12.
Flanker Pierre Roberts impressed enough off the bench to earn a start, forcing Kane Koteka to openside. Koteka just yesterday re-signed with the Western Force for another year, out of interest. With flyhalf Luke Burton suffering a broken hand, and Ian Prior doing a bang-up job last week, Prior will this week wear No.10, with Ryan Louwrens again starting at scrumhalf. Hooker Heath Tessmann will sit out this last game.
Teams to be announced today. Referee is Rohan Hoffmann.
Tickets: Tickets available here and at the gate. Adults from $15 and kids under 15 free.
Sydney Stars have the bye
Table at the start of Round 8
Brisbane City 29
Uni of Canberra 29
Sydney 19
NSW Country 13
Melbourne 12
Perth 11
Queensland Country 9
Greater Sydney 7
North Harbour 6
Leading try-scorers
10 – Junior Laloifi (BRIS)
7 – Harry Jones (SYD)
6 – Samu Kerevi (BRIS), Nigel Ah Wong (UCV), Jarrad Butler (UCV)
5 – Ita Vaea (UCV), Francis Fainifo (UCV)
4 – Josh Holmes (NHR), Jake Gordon (SYD), Sam Greene (QLDC), Ben Meehan (MEL), Tom Robertson (SYD), Cohan Masson (GSR), Richard Hardwick (PER)
(267 tries from 133 different players to date.)
Leading goal-kickers (min 10 attempts)
90% – 18/20: Ian Prior (PER)
85% – 17/20: Jono Lance (NSWC)
83% – 20/24: Hamish Angus (NHR)
78% – 28/36: Jake McIntyre (BRIS)
76% – 16/21: Sam Greene (QLDC)
A 72% conversion rate overall – 197 from 275 across the competition from 25 different players.
Still just two penalty goals kicked from three attempts in 28 games.