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There are as many as four positions up for grabs in the Australian Test side for the first Test against New Zealand in four weeks’ time, yet the Test squad seems certain to be announced before there is a single Sheffield Shield game played.
This means this month’s star-packed one-day competition will have a significant influence on selections.
There is only one round of the Sheffield Shield before the Gabba Test on November 5, and the Test squad surely will have been picked prior to that.
Fitness permitting, the players guaranteed of being in the starting Test XI at Brisbane are skipper Steve Smith, opener David Warner, wicketkeeper Peter Nevill and the bowling attack of Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon.
In the wake of the retirements of Michael Clarke, Chris Rogers and Shane Watson, four positions in Australia’s Test top six are yet to be set in concrete.
While the likes of Adam Voges and Mitchell Marsh have strong chances of retaining their Test spots, their struggles with the bat in the Ashes mean they must perform for their states this month or risk being leapfrogged.
The selectors have short attention spans, and a flurry of commanding efforts in the One Day Cup from a batsman or all-rounder may seduce them to overlook Voges or Marsh.
Smith has suggested he may slide back down the order from first drop to number four. That would leave Australia needing to bring two players into their top three.
Shaun Marsh seems a strong candidate to fill one of these spots, and has received a robust endorsement from Clarke. Certainly, Australia’s top seven is in need of experience, having just lost so many veterans, and at 32 years old Marsh could provide that.
He has, however, looked vulnerable against quality pace bowling during his 15-Test career, which has been marked by an extraordinary ratio of single-digit scores – no less than 11 among his 26 completed innings.
In his one Test during the recent Ashes, he twice was out cheaply, edging behind after pushing with hard hands at deliveries which should have been left alone. This has been a major weakness throughout his international career.
New Zealand’s quality new-ball pair of Trent Boult and Tim Southee probe away on or just outside off stump looking for just these sorts of dismissals.
It would make more sense to offer an opportunity to a player many years younger than Marsh with greater upside, such as his 22-year-old Warriors teammate Cameron Bancroft, or 26-year-old Queenslander Joe Burns.
Burns looked a certainty to be in the starting XI for the first Test in Bangladesh before the tour was cancelled due to security concerns. He now looks vulnerable, however, after wasting the wonderful opportunity he was afforded to open in all five ODIs in England recently.
After starting that series solidly with a fluent 44 in the opening match, he made just 33 runs from his next four innings, throwing his wicket away several times.
Already, Marsh and Bancroft have stolen a march on Burns in the domestic one-dayers.
That pair crafted a 216-run opening stand against South Australia on Monday, with Marsh making 109 and Bancroft belying his cautious first-class batting to crack 176 from just 155 balls.
It is innings like that, and South Australian 21-year-old Travis Head’s phenomenal double ton in reply, which could sway the selectors.
As a result, the stakes in this one-day competition are higher than they have been for many years. The Test selectors are watching, and every player knows it.