Saturday at 5.40pm (AEDT) see the running of the 2015 Caulfield Guineas a Group 1 set weights race for three year olds. First run in 1881 it has an amazing honour roll of winners.
The race includes the likes of Surround, Luskin Star, Manikato, Red Anchor, Mahogany, Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro and Weekend Hussler.
In this preview I am primarily looking at the last fourteen winners (since 2001) in the quest to help us find the winner of this years edition.
Below are the those winners with their barrier draw, lead up run, jockey and starting price:
2014 SHOOTING TO WIN (8) First Stan Fox Stakes Rosehill 1500m J.McDonald $7.50
2013 LONG JOHN (1) Third (0.9L)Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $3.75
2012 ALL TOO HARD (3) Fourth 3L George Main Stakes Randwick 1600m D.Dunne $12
2011 HELMET (5) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m K.McEvoy $2.10
2010 ANACHEEVA (1) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6
2009 STARSPANGLEDBANNER Fourth (0.6L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m D.Nikolic $13
2008 WHOBEGOTYOU (11) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m M.Rodd $3
2007 WEEKEND HUSSLER (4) First Sandown 3yo Open 1400m B.Rawiller $1.90
2006 WONDERFUL WORLD (8) First Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m L.Nolen $6.50
2005 GOD’S OWN (12) Second (0.1L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m G.Boss $7.50
2004 ECONSUL (4) Sixth (3L) Stan Fox StakesWarwick Farm 1400m C.Munce $41
2003 IN TOP SWING (4) Second (2L) Guineas Prelude Caulfield 1400m N.Callow $21
2002 HELENUS (7) First Bill Stutt Stakes M/Valley 1600m S.King $4.25
2001 LONHRO (10) First Stan Fox Stakes Randwick 1400m D.Gauci $7
Pertinent statistics:
A) 11/14 drew barriers 1-8 (78%). Looking back to 1995 those same barriers have provided 22 of the last 30 winners (73%) so it is advantageous to draw favourable in this race. 8 of the last 13 winners have drawn barriers 1-4 which is better than a 50% winning ratio.
B) 7/14 ran in Guineas Prelude prior and one other (Helenus) ran a close third in the Guineas Prelude before winning the Stutt Stakes prior to this race.
C) 13 of 14 winners had their last start within sixteen days of their prior start.
D) 8 of 14 won their last start and a further 5 finished in the first 4 placings last start. 14/14 finished within three lengths of the winner.
E) 6 of 14 (42.85%) won their last start by more than 2 lengths
F) 9 of 14 (64%) were in the first four horses turning for home. Those that have come from well back in the field have generally had a class edge (Whobegotyou, Helenus) or produced a freakish effort to win (Lonhro, God’s Own).
G) 8 of 14 started their Caulfield Guineas preparation in Sydney
H) 13 of 14 had at least 4 runs leading up to winning this race
I) Average starting price $9.75 is more than you should expect from a set weights race. But it tells you something about the unpredictability of three year old races at this time of the year, where all are open to huge improvement, and many trainers are yet to find out what is the best distance for their horse.
Analysis:
Press Statement is a hot favourite to win the race, and he looks a good fit historically coming off a resounding three length win last start in the Stan Fox Stakes two weeks ago.
That is exactly the same circumstance as Shooting To Win who triumphed last year, and it’s a bit difficult to see anything behind him in that race turn the tables in this. Barrier 14 looks a major hindrance though, given that only 1 horse has drawn worse than that to win in the past thirty years, and it was a horse called Drawn, way back in 1985.
Only three have won the race drawn worse than barrier 12 in that thirty year period. He clearly looks the horse to beat coming off seemingly stronger form up in Sydney, where the three year olds have been running outstanding times compared to the older gallopers. I’m not keen to be taking less than $3 about him though, let alone $2.25 because of that barrier statistic.
The predicament for punters is that once you start looking for something to beat him it becomes somewhat of a minefield. The most prolific historical lead in is definitely the Guineas Prelude.
On face value that race looks suspect because only two lengths separated the first nine horses, but on the plus side there was 2.5 lengths to the horse in tenth, and perhaps the genuine pace in that race was largely responsible for the evenness of the finish.
Ready For Victory has the class going on his fourth placed finish behind Vancouver in the Golden Slipper during the Autumn. He hasn’t done a great deal so far this Spring but the blinkers go on here and the Zabeel breeding on the Dam’s side might be a good indicator that he will respond well to them (Zabeel offspring most often do).
Reports from the track indicate they have sparked him up, and he has drawn an barrier that can win him this race. If he can find three lengths with them on, he could be the one.
The Kiwi horse Dal Cielo was very good in that prelude because he set a suicidally fast pace and was only run down late. That was his first run in Blinkers, and only his second start from a spell.
On breeding the 1600m shouldn’t be a problem and he was already in my Blackbook for the time he ran when winning the 1200m Diamond Stakes a Group one in New Zealand at his last run before a spell. He had absolutely no luck when caught 3 wide the whole race in the Karaka Million before that, and probably would have gone close with a softer run. The plan will be to take a sit behind the speed this time, and he has drawn well enough to make his own luck. Trainer Murray Baker is extremely good at setting his horses to peak at the right time, and although this is only the third run in for this horse (not great historically), he looks a genuine improver with the ability to win this race.
Bon Aurum won the Prelude and is a bit hard to knock for this race. He has been the surprise packet this Spring, and if he’d drawn a touch kinder, you would just about have to put him on top. Barrier 10 is a tiny bit awkward, but he is a winner, and his odds are too generous. Whether he has already peaked is the question, but trainer Ciaron Maher is the best young trainer in Australia at the moment. He could get it right again here.
Tulsa was in just about everybody’s blackbook for his flashing light run at Flemington behind Bon Aurum, and he followed that up with a similar effort in the Prelude from a similar hopeless position early from a wide draw. It’s just a pity that he has drawn so poorly again, and he looks the quintessential Caulfield Guineas third or fourth placegetter to me, storming home down the outside a little too late. In a way I hope I’m wrong because I’m a big fan, but his get back pattern has me looking elsewhere.
Tarzino could be the real surprise packet. The consensus seems to be he is the second stringer from the Mick Price stable, behind Ready For Victory, but I’m not convinced of that. Two starts now with blinkers applied for two wins, and the last of those was a super effort. Rarely do you see a horse win from that far back at Caulfield where he had to go back from a wide barrier, and the moderate first 1000m there of 1.02.01 made his task almost insurmountable.
The race was over at the 200m mark though and this big strong staying type of colt made his opposition look second rate – albeit perhaps they were.
It’s a slightly obsure race to provide a Caulfield Guineas winner, but he could be the real deal, and interestingly he is a three quarter brother to the unbeaten boom NZ galloper Hasselhoof.
Whether he quite has the acceleration to cope with this opposition is questionable, but he has drawn perfectly, and will definitely test the stamina of a few yet to go to this distance. He is only one of three horses in this race to have won at the mile so his $13+ odds look tantalising.
Conclusion and Caulfield Guineas bet suggestion:
The aforementioned would be my top six fancies for this race which are largely based on historical factors. I’m not one to be put off by wide barriers and that is the only historical factor that makes me doubt the winning credentials of Press Statement.
He has to be top pick, but I’d caution against taking current odds of less than $2.50. The real value might lie with the improving DAL CIELO amd TARZINO and they are the ones I will be backing at double figure quotes.
1. Press Statement
2. Tarzino
3. Dal Cielo
4. Ready For Victory
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