With just two matches left in each pool, all to be played over the next three days, we’re drawing closer and closer to the 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.
Some nations are still crossing their fingers and hoping they’ll make it through. Others have their spot solidified. This cheat sheet looks at every nation still in the running for the quarter-finals, and what they’re hoping for in the remaining matches of the pools stage.
Australia
There’s no need to be concerned for the Wallabies who with three wins from three matches so far cannot possibly fall short of the quarter-finals.
However, their upcoming match with Wales will determine which side finishes on top of Pool A, which will affect who they play come the quarter-finals.
The Wallabies are the favourites to win, and if they do they will find themselves facing either Scotland or Japan.
On the other hand, if they fall short against Wales, they are certain to be playing South Africa in the quarter-finals.
Wales
It’s a simple case of affairs for Wales who are in the same situation as the Wallabies. They’ve got a quarter-final berth sewn up, but their last match will determine who they play.
In the event of a draw Wales will likely come off the lesser – they’ve got a +58 points scored advantage in this tournament, well behind Australia, who are +97. A draw where only Wales scores four tries would see them edge out Australia with a bonus point.
Defeat the Wallabies and it’s Scotland or Japan. Lose to the Wallabies, and it’s South Africa.
South Africa
Despite their shock loss to Japan earlier in the tournament, South Africa finished with three wins from their remaining matches and have locked in top spot in Pool B.
That means they only have to sit back and watch as the other teams decide their quarter-final opponent for them – it’ll be either Australia or Wales, depending on the outcome of their match.
They’ll be the most well-rested of the finalists, the only team in contention to have already played all four of their matches.
Scotland
Scotland currently have an advantage of two match points over Japan in Pool B, and if the pools stage were to end here and now, it would be them making it through to the quarter-finals.
It’s a simple equation for them in their remaining match against Samoa – win and they are through to the quarter-final no questions asked, where they will face the winner of Australia and Wales.
Lose, and they will have to hope that Japan lose to USA. A bonus-point draw would also see Japan overtake a defeated Scotland, assuming Scotland didn’t record a bonus point of their own in their loss.
Japan
Japan stated a goal of making the quarter-finals before the tournament, and so far, they have done themselves proud with a ground-breaking win over South Africa, and another victory over Samoa.
However, they are still relying on other results to go their way to achieve their goal – they need Scotland to lose to or draw with Samoa to give them a chance.
If Scotland lose then a likely win over the USA will see Japan make the quarter-finals, where they would play the winner of Australia and Wales.
If Scotland draw – without scoring a bonus point in the process – then Japan will need to win and claim a bonus point.
If Scotland win, then regardless of a victory over USA – which would be their third of the tournament – Japan cannot make the quarter-finals.
New Zealand
Three comfortable wins has seen New Zealand guarantee themselves a spot in the quarter-finals, though they still need to defeat Tonga today to guarantee top spot in Pool C.
The All Blacks have four match points advantage over the next best in Pool C, Argentina, but if they were to lose without qualifying for a bonus point, then Argentina could theoretically overtake them with a bonus-point win over Namibia.
Tonga are out to $61 to defeat the All Blacks this morning so let’s just say that scenario is unlikely.
A virtual certainty to finish as the winners of Pool C, the All Blacks will most likely face the losers of the upcoming match between France and Ireland.
Argentina
Argentina are all but locked in to the quarter-finals but could theoretically miss if a truly bizarre scenario was to occur.
It would require Tonga to defeat New Zealand this morning and earn a bonus point in doing so, then require Argentina to drop their match to winless Namibia without earning a bonus point of their own.
Of course, if the Tonga upset was to occur then Argentina would also have the chance to go to the head of Pool C if they defeated Namibia and earned a bonus point.
All these possibilities are wildly unlikely. It’s a near certainty that Argentina will finish second in Pool C and play the winners of France and Ireland in the quarter-finals.
Tonga
As shown above, Tonga are still a mathematical chance of making the quarter-finals, but it would require them to record a massive upset this morning when they play the All Blacks.
They would need to record at least four tries in the match to earn a bonus point, and even then they would still need Argentina to lose to Namibia by more than seven points in order to leapfrog them into the quarter finals.
It would go down in the record books as probably the most unlikely pair of results in history. They’re at $501 with betting agencies for it to happen.
If it somehow did, they’d play the winners of France and Ireland in the quarter-finals.
Ireland
With three wins from three matches, Ireland are locked into the quarter-finals and currently find themselves on top of Pool D.
However they have a match to come against the also undefeated France that will essentially determine which side finishes on top of the pool.
Assuming Pool C concludes as expected, Ireland will play Argentina in the quarter-finals if they win, and New Zealand if they lose.
France
France find themselves in the same position as their coming opponents Ireland – undefeated so far, but only one side can remain as such and finish on top of Pool D.
In the event of a draw, it’s likely to be France who miss out on winning Pool D. Ireland currently have a +84 advantage in points scored, while France are on +72. Of course, if they were to have a draw and be the only team scoring four tries, France would leapfrog Ireland with a bonus point.
Defeat Ireland and France will almost certainly play Argentina in the quarter-finals. Lose and they will likely face New Zealand.
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