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The 2015 season threw up more than its fair of controversy, tragedy and triumph. There was the booing of Adam Goodes, the murder of Phil Walsh, the death of Cooper Ratten, and Hawthorn’s magnificent effort to complete a grand final hat trick.
None of these – except perhaps for the Hawks’ grand final triumph – could have been foreseen prior to the start of the season.
In between and around these events were some outcomes throughout the year which also would have seemed improbable before the season began.
Who could have predicted the dramatic rise of West Coast and the Bulldogs? Particularly so after the Eagles lost both Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown to injury for the year and the upheavals at the Whitten Oval at the end of the 2014 season.
Melbourne fans finally got to see the much hyped Jesse Hogan make it onto the field, and although many may have given him a chance to win the NAB Rising Star Award, not even the most optimistic Demon supporter would have thought he could finish third in contested marks in the competition.
Going back a few years very few people would have believed that any player, let alone two, would crack the 400 game-mark as both Dustin Fletcher and Brent Harvey did this season.
The same could be said of Mick Malthouse, or any coach for that matter, breaking Jock McHale’s coaching record.
2016 promises to throw up more improbable outcomes. While many will be completely unexpected, some at least which historically seemed of little possibility in the past, can now be seen as legitimate chances of occurring.
Below are five things that could possibly happen in 2016, that either seemed improbable in the past, or unlikely in the present.
Bomber Harvey breaks Michael Tuck’s record
Of the five this is the one most likely to come to fruition. Although back in 1991 when Michael Tuck played the last of his 426 games, most thought no-one would again pass the 400 game mark – let alone break his record.
As mentioned, above both Brent Harvey and Dustin Fletcher played their 400th games in 2015, and while Fletcher limped to his, Harvey powered onwards, getting better as the season progressed.
On this year’s form which earned him a fourth placing in North Melbourne’s best and fairest, ‘Boomer’ could play on for another two seasons – if not more.
Harvey finished the season on 409 games, so notwithstanding injury or suspension he will equal Michael Tuck’s record in Round 17, and break it the following week.
Just as was thought back in 1991 when Tuck finally retired, most believe no player will ever reach the 400 game mark again, or come close to the record – be it Harvey’s if he makes it, or Tuck’s.
Hawthorn win four flags in a row
When Hawthorn defeated West Coast in the 2015 decider they became only the fifth team to win three premierships in succession. Carlton achieved the feat in 1906-1908, Melbourne in 1939-1941 and 1955-1957, and Brisbane in 2001-2003.
Of those four teams, only the Melbourne side of 1939-41 did not make the grand final in the year following their respective hat tricks, yet each failed to win an elusive fourth premiership in a row.
The only team to do so is the Collingwood side of the mid to late 1920s coached by the legendary Jock McHale, who appeared in six grand finals between 1925 and 1930 including victories in the last four.
If Hawthorn were to win another grand final in 2016, they will become only the second team in 119 seasons of VFL/AFL football to win four consecutive premierships. That makes the feat from a historical perspective almost impossible.
However there is little doubt the Hawks will be in contention again next year, and although only a few years ago a team winning four in a row seemed unlikely, the chance of it occurring in 2016 now appears much more than just a remote possibility.
Brownlow Medalist receives more than 40 votes
Besides 1976 and 1977 when both field umpires’ votes were included, no Brownlow Medal winner has topped 40 votes.
In the 92-year history of the Brownlow only eight times has the 30-vote barrier been broken, with the highest tally to date 34 coming from 2011 winner Dane Swan.
However six of those eight times have occurred in the last 11 years. Prior to Robert Harvey polling 32 in 1998, the only other year it was achieved in the 20th century was in 1940, when both Des Fothergill and Herbie Matthews also polled 32 votes.
While 20, or even 10 years ago the thought of a Brownlow Medallist topping 40 votes was farfetched, the rise in the amount of 30-plus winners – as well as the first half of the last two seasons from Gary Ablett and Nat Fyfe respectively -show it can be done.
In 2014 Ablett had polled 22 votes from 13 games before injury put a premature halt to his season in Round 15 against Collingwood. This season’s eventual winner Nat Fyfe had amassed an amazing 29 votes in his first 12 games, before a cork followed by a groin strain restricted the second half of his season, leading to only another two votes after Round 13.
Had Fyfe kept his average of 2.41 votes per game during the first 12 rounds over the final 10 games of the season he would have polled a staggering 53 votes. That would mean him not only reaching, but shattering the 40-vote barrier.
All AFL coaches keep their jobs
In only three of the past 15 years has an AFL senior coach not been sacked at some time during the season. Over the past five years, 12 coaches have been told by their respective clubs their services were no longer required.
Next year may turn out to be only the fourth season since 2000, and the first since 2005, that all 18 AFL clubs hold onto their coaches for the entire season.
Hawthorn’s four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson is about as safe as any coach in history, and Adam Simpson is in no danger of losing his job after taking West Coast to a grand final despite losing his two key defenders early in the year.
Fremantle’s Ross Lyon and Sydney’s John Longmire led their sides to top-four finishes again and are no chance of losing their jobs in the near future.
Luke Beveridge was just named Coach of the Year after taking the Bulldogs to an unlikely finals berth, while Richmond’s Damien Hardwick and North Melbourne coach Brad Scott look safe – at least for the moment despite perhaps not being as secure in their positions as the other five.
Chris Scott missed finals for only the first time since taking over at Geelong in 2011, and will see them through their ‘mini-rebuild’, while the Giants have improved steadily each season since Leon Cameron has been in charge.
Ken Hinkley will be given every chance to repeat his 2014 efforts with Port Adelaide, and Nathan Buckley will more than likely sign an extension with Collingwood over the off season to cut off the already growing speculation.
Allan Richardson has so far exceeded expectations with a young St Kilda outfit that looks well set for the future, and Paul Roos will fulfil his current contract before handing over the reins at Melbourne to Simon Goodwin.
Brendon Bolton, John Worsfold and Don Pyke will be in their first seasons at the helm of their respective clubs in Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide, so will be given at least a season or two to find their feet.
Rodney Eade could also be put in the same category as the three first-year coaches, given the horrific injury toll he had to cope with in his first year at the Suns.
Perhaps the coach under the most pressure to keep his job in 2016 is Brisbane’s Justin Leppitsch. After securing a number of talented players during the 2014 trade period the Lions only won four games for the season, missing out on collecting the wooden spoon due to percentage only.
To make matters worse for Leppitsch, the player exodus that has dogged the club over recent years looks set to continue in 2015, with Jack Redden, Matthew Leuenberger and James Aish all wanting to be traded.
A poor start to 2016 will no doubt have the media, and more than likely, a fair number of Brisbane supporters calling for Leppitsch to be replaced.
Fremantle and Ross Lyon win their first premiership
Prior to Ross Lyon taking over as senior coach at the end of the 2011 season, Fremantle had played in the finals on only three occasions since joining the AFL in 1995. Their best finish to a season was in 2006, when they finished third and made a preliminary final.
Under Lyon, the Dockers have taken part in the finals every year, finishing seventh in his first season, runners up in 2013, fourth in 2014 and this season – for the first time in the club’s history – minor premiers and a third preliminary final.
Had Fremantle made the most of their opportunities in 2013 they would have their first flag, but it wasn’t to be and they are still searching.
It was a similar theme at Lyon’s former club St Kilda. After joining the Saints for the 2007 season he took the club to ninth in his first year, fourth and a preliminary final in 2008, followed by two grand final losses and a draw in 2009 and 2010.
Ross Lyon-coached teams have played in four grand finals, winning none, drawing one and losing another two by a total of 27 points. The only blowout being against Collingwood in the 2010 replay which the Magpies won comfortably by 56 points.
The Dockers were in contention again this year, but a suspect forward line and injuries to key players at the wrong time saw them fall short. However with the hopeful addition of Harley Bennell and Cam McCarthy in the trade period, and a fit Nat Fyfe they are a chance of going a step further.
Unfortunately for Fremantle and Ross Lyon they need to go forward two steps, not just the one, and up until now both club and coach have failed to take that last step. Could 2016 be the year they do?
It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
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