For the last seven Rugby World Cups there has been a rule of thumb that no team that loses a pool game goes on to win the Cup. I call this the ‘gold-plated rule’, because it’s not necessarily a solid golden rule (like gravity for example), but has held true so far.
Now that the pool play is finished and the opponents for the quarter-finals have been finalised, I’d like to address a few questions.
Firstly, will the gold-plated rule still hold true for this World Cup or will the gold plating start to tarnish?
Secondly, how might the rest of the World Cup pan out from here?
And thirdly, why has the gold-plated rule held firm so far?
If we look at the quarter-finals, we have: South Africa versus Wales, New Zealand versus France, Ireland versus Argentina, and Australia versus Scotland.
Looking at the first quarter-final, both these teams have suffered pool losses and so according to the gold-plated rule, neither of them are a chance to take out the World Cup.
In the case of Wales, I give them next to no chance of winning the tournament and expect them to put out a valiant fight before going down to South Africa in this match.
Despite beating England, I don’t think the Welsh were actually the better team and benefited greatly from an English brain explosion that they cannot expect again.
In the case of South Africa, I would never be so brave as to fully write them off but would say that they just haven’t looked the business all year.
Despite their resurgence since the loss to the Blossoms and the loss of their captain, I suspect too many of the structural problems with their game have been papered over rather than fixed.
Looking at the second quarter-final, France suffered a loss to Ireland and so the gold-plated rule precludes them from winning the Cup.
In the case of France, though, it is always a brave All Blacks fan that will predict anything to do with them.
They are unpredictable and enigmatic. They seem to be immune to dents in confidence that other teams suffer after a loss, as illustrated by their massive resurgence in 2011 despite losing two pool games.
However, pulling on my big boy pants I have to say that on current form they don’t seem to be up to the task, and I believe the gold-plated rule is not at risk from them.
In the case of the All Blacks, they should get past France on the weekend despite the fact that their form has looked pretty poor so far. However, unless they take a big step up they will not go all the way.
Looking at the third quarter-final, Argentina suffered a pool loss to the All Blacks and as such are ruled out by the gold-plated rule, whereas the Irish are still a chance.
I suspect that this will be the most hotly contested quarter-final, with the Irish having to bring all they have to the table to win (narrowly) over the Argentinians.
The reality is that the Pumas just aren’t the same team they were three or four years ago, with the Rugby Championship giving them the regular tough contests they need to up their game. If the Irish put a foot wrong, they could find themselves on the next bus home.
Regardless of who wins this quarter-final, I don’t think either of them are a genuine chance at the World Cup.
Looking at fourth quarter-final, Scotland have suffered a pool loss and realistically aren’t a chance to advance any further let alone take out the Webb Ellis trophy – so the gold-plated rule will hold in this case.
The Australians are (sadly from an All Blacks supporter’s point of view) looking the business and should be considered favourites based on current form.
Winning one game against England could be considered luck, a second against Wales cannot be.
That said, despite the Aussies looking clinical and polished, enthusiasm does need to be tempered with the reality that both England and Wales are fairly ordinary and going into the quarters, the Scots are even more so.
So now I will do my best impression of Nostradamus and make my predictions for the rest of the cup.
Semi-final: New Zealand versus South Africa
New Zealand will account for France and South Africa will account for Wales to meet in the first semi-final.
Neither of these teams are looking particularly flash right now. However, the difference I believe is that the problems with South Africa’s game are more deep-seated and structural and cannot be quickly or easily remedied, whereas the problems with New Zealand’s game are more to do with simple execution.
For this reason, I will cross all my fingers and toes and predict a win for New Zealand.
Semi-final: Australia versus Ireland
Australia will account for Scotland and Ireland will most likely squeak past Argentina to meet in the second semi-final.
At this point, most All Blacks fans (myself included) will be hoping for a win for Ireland simply because the All Blacks should have much fewer problems dispensing with the Irish than the Australians.
With a 66 per cent win record against Ireland, the Wallabies would normally go into the match favourites. However, I believe they will have to be hot favourites now simply because they seem to have found their mojo.
Final: New Zealand versus Australia
Ironically, after the Pool of Death, the Australians will get an easier ride to the finals than the All Blacks (assuming my predictions hold out).
At this point, I could make extrapolations on how both teams will perform in a head-to-head match-up, but the reality is that I just don’t think it is possible.
Each team has two knock-out matches between now and the finals, assuming they get there. In those two games, either team could gain or lose their mojo and could likewise lose key players to injury or the judiciary.
So right now, I will take off my big boy pants and wait until the semis are over before making a prediction for the final.
This leaves the last question, why has the gold-plated rule held so far? There are a couple of theories I can think of that explain this.
Firstly, the psychological damage that a team suffers from a pool loss is difficult if not impossible to recover from. Secondly, if a team loses a pool match, it indicates that they are simply not playing at a level that a genuine World Cup contender should be.
However, if we want to find possible chinks in these theories, we only need to look at our good friends the French.
In the last World Cup, they lost two pool games and were derided across the rugby world for their poor performances and yet came roaring back to take the All Blacks to the line in the final.
Do we take this anomaly as being the gold-plated rule still works (after all, the French did lose in the end), or do we add an exception to the gold-plated rule that says that it applies provided the French don’t turn up to the World Cup in one of their enigmatic moods?
It’s always fun gazing wistfully at your navel to make predictions on events that you have no real right to be making predictions about.
Even more fun is having others pick apart your reasoning or offer counter views.
So what do you think, Roarers? Am I right? Wrong? Or somewhere in between?
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