Internationally trained horses have now won three of the past seven Caulfield Cups, and the falling standard of our local stayers isn’t cause for extreme optimism right now or in the future.
As is the case with the Melbourne Cup, it is difficult for punters to line up the form of the overseas horses for this race.
So here is a closer look at those in contention for the big Caulfield race this week, starting at the top of the weights.
Snow Sky is a high-class stayer in the astute hands of Sir Michael Stoute, who had also trained Fiorente before being transferred to Gai Waterhouse for the 2012 Melbourne Cup.
He is the youngest of the overseas raiders this year at only four years of age, and he is a stallion which has augured so well for the Melbourne Cup in recent times. He is yet to win over 3000 metres or more, so my thoughts are that he might be better suited to winning over 2400 metres here, than at the two miles of the Melbourne Cup (no overseas horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup winning over less than 3000 metres).
Snow Sky surprised his trainer recently when showing a turn of foot to win the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot over 2400 metres, which was the first time he had led in a race. That day he had the likes of the top-class Eagle Top and Postponed behind him, and the latter two horses went on to beat him in the King George V Stakes, before venturing to France and winning the Group 2 Prix Foy.
Snow Sky failed in the King George, but he didn’t find the lead that day and the defeat can be excused because he apparently didn’t enjoy the “tacky” conditions underfoot.
Last December this horse travelled to Hong Kong but ran ordinarily in the Hong Kong Vase to be beaten by 4.5 lengths. In the scheme of things that was far from a disgraceful effort, and he is a more mature horse now, has had the benefit of travel, and should be suited by Australian track conditions.
Snow Sky beat Hartnell by two lengths last year in a Derby trial which gives us a form line to work with. He looks a very good chance in the race this year, and the bonus is he has won fresh, and is 2-2/5 on left-handed tracks.
Fame Game is a Japanese five-year-old stallion who carries less weight (57 kilograms) than his counterpart Admire Rakti, who comfortably won this race last year with 58 kilograms. A glance at his form over there suggests he comes to this race as a superior horse with better form.
Fame Game is also sired by Heart’s Cry which was also the case with Admire Rakti. He only just failed to win a Group 1 race over 3200 metres last start and probably should have, but for being strung up between horses on the turn. It was won by the very popular six-time Group 1 winning grey champion Gold Ship. That form is good enough to win a Caulfield and Melbourne Cup here, of that there can be no doubt.
Fame Game has won five of sixteen starts in Japan, and notably has only won once from a barrier wider than 10. To say he has had little luck with barrier draws over there then would be an understatement. He has won three of his five starts on left-handed tracks (2-2/11 right-handed), but a negative for him could be the five-month break between runs. He hasn’t won first-up but did run that excellent second last start over two miles off a 10-week break.
The question is can Fame Game be competitive here at 2400 metres, even though he is a dual 3400-metre winner, and does his trainer want to risk a penalty for the Melbourne Cup? His last start second can be watched here.
Hokko Brave is trained at the same location as Fame Game. (The Miho training centre in Eastern Japan. He’s also here to tackle the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup. He is an older stallion at seven and has met Fame Game five times and been defeated on four of those occasions at level weights. This time he carries 55.5 kilograms, which makes him 1.5 kilograms better off at the weights, which should even things up a little bit more between the two.
Hokko Brave hasn’t won a race since October 2013 and finished two lengths or so astern of Admire Rakti when both were unplaced in the Japan Cup of that year. On the positive side he has won more races up to 2400 metres than his stablemate, and connections might be keener to win this race with him given his age of seven, and a lesser weight.
If he did win this race he would be penalised in the Melbourne Cup, but would still probably carry a winnable weight (57 kilograms). Craig Williams rides and he has quite a lot of experience aboard Japanese horses having ridden quite extensively in that country. In some betting markets Hokko Brave is nearly twice the price of Fame Game and that seems very unbalanced given the weight differential.
Trip to Paris is an English four-year-old gelding who has to be respected if only because he is trained by Ed Dunlop, who has had such success travelling his horses overseas, most notably Red Cadeaux, Snow Fairy, Ouija Board and Joshua Tree.
Trip to Paris won the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4023 metres in June but a stable representative has been keen to suggest that he isn’t a slow stayer, having won over 1400 metres as a two-year-old, and 2400 metres on two occasions. None of those races were run in a time that would win a decent race at the same distance here and he has never won with more than 37 days between runs. It will be 55 days since his last start when he contests the Caulfield Cup.
Trip to Paris isn’t a big horse which might be a plus around a tight Caulfield circuit, but a possible negative given a big field, and a lack of galloping room. Maybe a wide barrier would have suited but he didn’t get one. An Australian jockey was sought by the stable and they got one in Tommy Berry. The horse has some hope of winning but maybe the Melbourne Cup is a more realistic goal? His Ascot Gold Cup win was be viewed here.
Quest for More is first emergency for the race and like his English counterpart Trip To Paris also boasts six wins from 18 starts, but he has three more placings to his credit. He has won or placed at 12 of his past 13 starts.
The two horses met in the Goodwood Cup in late July this year over 3200 metres and this horse finished second, only just ahead of Trip To Paris at level weights. This time he meets him 1.5 kilograms better at the weights. Interestingly this horse has a far superior record on right-handed tracks (4-2/6), than he does on left-handed ones (2-2/12).
Blinkers are to applied for this race and that says the stable is quite serious about winning. The very generous $67 odds about this horse might be worth a thought if he can gain a start, albeit a little unlikely.
I’m not entirely convinced any of these horses are going to win the race, but perhaps the barrier draw has advantaged the likes of Fame Game and Snow Sky to some degree. There doesn’t seem to be a great deal of pace in the race so my thinking is that Snow Sky could lead, or at least be very prominent from his good draw.
Snow Sky should also appreciate the dry track and the services of Damien Oliver won’t hurt. I would have chosen Hokko Brave as top selection because he is the most likely to have been set specifically for the race, but given his barrier draw of 20, I would assess them as shown below.
Realistically there may not be a lot between them.
Selections
1. Snow Sky
2. Fame Game (probably the best horse and hardest to beat in the Melbourne Cup)
3. Hokko Brave
4. Trip To Paris (massive respect for his trainer)
5. Quest For More
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
