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Welcome punters, to a fantastic Derby day card, dripping with quality and complexity.
Almost all of these races are time-honoured, with a solid weight of history behind them, so we’ll run through my thoughts on each race, plus give a historical tip as well, based on results over the last 10 years.
Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes – Group 3, 1600m, three years old, set weights with penalties
Bassett looks the one to beat, the only horse in the field to come through the Caulfield Guineas, where he ran well competing against the best of his age group. He was only second up into that, so can hardly be accused of being over-the-top after a long campaign.
The Gothic Stakes is always a key lead-up to this. Mahuta led all the way to win it, and Flemington can play leaderish on Derby day. Flying Light ran well in the same race. Gredington comes from a mighty run in the Stutt Stakes and is a genuine threat, while Patch Adams and He’s Our Rokkii must be respected through the same formline. Marky Mark provides the x-factor, over from New Zealand for the first time.
Selections
1. Bassett
2. Mahuta
3. Gredington
4. Flying Light
History says: Single figure odds, 56 kilograms or less, lead-up run in the Gothic Stakes: No.4 – Mahuta
Race 2 – Wakeful Stakes – Group 2, 2000m, three years old, fillies, set weights with penalties
The Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield a fortnight ago is the key lead-up race here, providing almost half the field, including six of the first seven across the line that day.
Dawnie Perfect won that race, simply too good and strong for them at 2000 metres, sweeping around the outside after settling worse than midfield. Ambience was solid in behind her, maybe a fraction weak at the trip late, but gets a two-kilogram weight swing for the 1.8 length defeat. Bannatyne was brave up front and will make it tough for them to get past her again.
My Popette was a dominant leader at the Valley last week, albeit assisted by the rails bias. Still, she’s a smart filly, and can win. We must be wary of Adelaide visitors over Cup week, and Beluga Blue is a value player here. Muzyka hit her straps in maiden class up in Sydney, which is a similar lead up that last year’s winner had.
Selections
1. Dawnie Perfect
2. Beluga Blue
3. My Poppette
4. Muzyka
History says: Minimum weight, top three last start, racing over 2000 metres for the first time: No.6 – Bengal Cat
Race 3 – Guvera Stakes – Group 3, 1400m, open handicap
There’s some value to be had in this event, with three Group 1 credentialed runners at double-figure odds. Four horses have run well at Group 1 level this campaign, and you could do worse than box all four up in a trifecta.
Disposition is the obvious favourite after two great seconds in the Rupert Clarke Stakes and Toorak Handicap. He’s found a very winnable race here. Charmed Harmony was a close-up fifth in the Rupert Clarke and meets Disposition better at the weights.
Ninth Legion has run well at his last two, including fourth in the Toorak, even though he doesn’t see out a mile. The 1400 metres is much more his trip, he’s enormous value. Messene was one of the runs of the race behind Winx in the Epsom, and we saw what she did to a Cox Plate field last week.
I can’t see anything outside of these four winning, but I’ve been wrong before.
Selections
1. Disposition
2. Ninth Legion
3. Charmed Harmony
4. Messene
History says: Carry 53-56 kilograms, double-figure odds, top-four finish last start: No.15 – San Diego
Race 4 – Coolmore Stud Stakes – Group 1, 1200m, three years old, set weights
The first Group 1 of the day and we get to lay eyes on a serious talent, Exosphere, looking to add his name to the glittering honour role of the Coolmore Stud Stakes.
Exosphere has beaten the likes of Counterattack, Japonisme and Sebring Sun up in Sydney already this campaign, but they’ll all run well. Ready for Victory and Dal Ceilo drop back from the Caulfield Guineas.
Keen Array and Mogador come from the Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield and are both talented horses in form. Super One from Singapore is a trifecta hope if he brings his best.
But what we really want out of this race is for Exosphere to win in a manner that entices connections to take on Chautauqua next week in the Darley Classic.
Selections
1. Exosphere
2. Ready For Victory
3. Counterattack
4. Sebring Sun
History says: Short single-figure odds, top two last start, multiple wins this campaign: No.1 – Exosphere
Race 5 – Lexus Stakes – Group 3, 2500m, open quality
This is always a tough and open affair, as befitting the last chance saloon for those chasing a Melbourne Cup berth. It takes a good horse to win it too – they usually run very, very well if they back up in the Cup.
Making things trickier this time around is that the 13 runners are coming through 10 different lead-ups, with no more than two from any one race.
Group 1 form is always hard to ignore, so Havana Cooler and Chance to Dance from the Metrop up in Sydney have obvious claims. Excess Knowledge has been trying hard and might get his chance to win. Stablemate Bohemian Lily is so honest and in great form, she’s well over the odds.
Elhaame was brought out here to win the Melbourne Cup, so must be respected as a contender. Ruling Dynasty and High Midnight represent the Cummings stable, and would be fairytale results.
Selections
1. Elhaam
2. Excess Knowledge
3. Bohemian Lily
4. Havana Cooler
History says: Four- or five-year-old, top three last start, paying under $11: No.7 – Ruling Dynasty
Race 6 – Mackinnon Stakes – Group 1, 2000m, standard weight-for-age
The toughest Mackinnon Stakes in recent memory.
Fawkner, Happy Trails, Pornichet and Gailo Chop come from the Cox Plate, always a strong form reference, and each one has claims. Happy Trails is probably the pick of these, you can ignore his finishing position and margin in the Cox, he was never given a chance.
Stratum Star is the rising star among the group, but has a tricky barrier to contend with. Magic Hurricane has come a long way in a short time, but his last two runs have him as a legitimate contender. Magic Artist provides the x-factor from Germany.
The two alliteration mares back from the Caulfield Cup, Set Square and Rising Romance, are also capable of surprising at odds. Plenty will make a case for Contributer and Flamingo Star, but not me. They’re under the odds at the very least.
Selections
1. Happy Trails
2. Stratum Star
3. Magic Hurricane
4. Pornichet
History says: Cox Plate lead-up run, $6-$12, six-year-old or older: No.1 – Fawkner and No.2 – Happy Trails
Race 7 – Victoria Derby – Group 1, 2500m, three years old, set weights
Tarzino is the dominant favourite after his outstanding run against the bias at Moonee Valley last week. His was one of the best two runs of the day outside of Winx winning the Cox Plate. He gives every impression that he’ll eat up 2500 metres, and he should get his chance to prove himself the strongest stayer.
Lizard Island was excellent in both the Caulfield Guineas (beating Tarzino home) and Caulfield Classic, he’s got the class to figure, if not the stamina. Get the Picture was the notable run behind him last time out, and should get a lovely trail from a good gate with Oliver in the saddle.
Pay Up Bro caught many eyes behind Extra Choice in the Geelong Classic, but the winner was better for mine. Colonel Custer is from the same race and might be the best bolter. Kia Ora Koutou is a Perth visitor that’s hard to line-up, but is unbeaten, and obviously talented.
Selections
1. Tarzino
2. Lizard Island
3. Kia Ora Koutou
4. Extra Choice
History says: Top two in a Group race last start, no worse than fifth the start before: No.1 – Lizard Island
Race 8 – Myer Classic – Group 1, 1600m, standard weight-for-age, fillies and mares only
Similar to the Mackinnon, this could be the most open Myer Classic in memory, if the obvious doesn’t come to the fore.
The obvious in this case is the two favourites, battle-hardened mare Royal Descent and the three-year-old filly Stay With Me.
Royal Descent hasn’t raced against her own sex for a year and a half, and has taken on the best males in the land with a record of 16 starts for a win and 10 placings in that time. The mile is her best distance – despite not winning over it! – and if she hasn’t suffered unduly from her Caulfield Cup gut-buster, the only one that can stop her is the filly.
The three-year-old fillies look top notch this season, and Stay With Me beat them in the Thousand Guineas last start, and beat them well. Watch for her turn of foot with the light weight. Azkadellia is next best after a huge run last week, which had next-time winner written all over it, although finds herself in a tough race here.
Fourteen of the fifteen runners have legitimate claims, and it may all come down to the right run at the right time. Any of them can win if things go their way.
Selections
1. Royal Descent
2. Stay With Me
3. Azkadellia
4. May’s Dream
History says: four- or five-year-old, either less than $4 or more than $16, no wins last two: No.11 – Amicus
Race 9 – Tab.com.au Stakes – Group 2, 1200m, open handicap
A typically tough sprint race down the straight to finish the day, and there are few you could confidently put a line through.
Under The Louvre has been itching to win all campaign, but has been unable to get the job done. He gets another chance here, but isn’t suited by an inside barrier. Delectation isn’t the most reliable horse, but it’s hard to run much better behind Chautauqua than he did last time out up the straight in the Gilgai.
Knoydart was good there too, and while he hasn’t won in a while, this is his chance. Churchill Dancer is out of the same race, and it does look the right form.
Fontelina has won this race twice at double-figure odds, and might just be cherry ripe to do it again. Kaepernick is a bright talent, but this might just be beyond him. Eclair Choice and Bring Me The Made are also chances.
Selections
1. Churchill Dancer
2. Fontelina
3. Delectation
4. Knoydart
History says: Four- or five-year-old, top four last start, carrying 54.5 kilograms or less: No. 12 – Bring Me The Maid