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SPIRO: Can the All Blacks win the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan?

1st November, 2015
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As always the All Blacks are likely to be the team to beat in 2019. (Photo: AFP)
Expert
1st November, 2015
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Aussie ‘Bill’, the William Webb Ellis trophy, has now become Kiwi ‘Bull’.

By winning their third Rugby World Cup, with back-to-back wins and their first overseas Bull, the 2011-2015 New Zealand All Blacks have elevated themselves to the pantheon of the greatest rugby team that has ever played the game.

Forget the 1924 All Blacks. Ignore the 1951 Springboks. Overlook the 1999 Wallabies. Dismiss the 2003 England side. The 2011-2015 All Blacks are the greatest team to have played rugby.

This team may well be, with only three losses in four years and no year with more than one Test loss, the greatest sports team in history. And now they have triumphed in Rugby World Cup final that resulted in five tries being scored and the highest total of points scored, a 34-17 result.

I call this tendency and intention to win every game the Weight of Wins theory. The more you win, the more likely you are to win. You are more likely to win because you know how to win. Thus, the mantra ‘winning is a habit’.

The Wallabies went into this final having won only one of their past eleven Tests against the All Blacks. This is like tossing with a weighted coin for heads and the All Blacks are allowed to call heads: the Weight of Winning.

With so many players still likely to be available in four years time, the All Blacks could maintain their current dominance in Rugby World Cup tournaments and in Test rugby for another four years, at least.

Add to the current All Blacks the dozens of fine players, all excellently coached, bursting through the provincial and youth age grades in New Zealand and the notion of a long-lasting dynasty stretching into some black (for opponents) future becomes a distinct probability, rather than a possibility.

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The All Blacks have often been called the Brazil of world rugby, a reference to the exciting way they play and their tendency to dominate their opponents. The big difference up to Rugby World Cup 2011 was the All Blacks mediocre (for them) record in Rugby World Cup tournaments.

But with the Rugby World Cup triumphs in 2011 and 2015, the All Blacks are beginning to put together a line of victories that have a Brazil-like magical sequence to them.

The first Football World Cup was played in Uruguay in 1930. Brazil won its first title in 1958. Then Brazil won four of the next five tournaments. The only tournament that was not won in this sequence was played in England in 1966.

The All Blacks progress has been somewhat similar, although on a much less successful (up to now) scale. They won the first Rugby World Cup tournament in New Zealand in 1987. There was a 24-year hiatus before the All Blacks won back-to-back tournaments in 2011 and now 2015.

It needs to be remembered that New Zealand rugby, rather like Australian cricket used to be in its glory days, is always willing to take a punt on pushing forward young talent. If you are good enough, you are always old enough.

New Zealand is a rugby stadium of more than four million people where everyone, male and female, young and old, has an understanding of the zen of rugby.

Richie McCaw was spotted as a round-faced primary schoolboy rugby prodigy in the small Canterbury back-country village of Kurow because “he was going where the ball was going to be, instead of where it was.” Both the schoolboy and the spotter had to have an intuitive and deep understanding of the rugby game to understand the importance of this specific talent.

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McCaw was thrown into the All Blacks as a 20-year-old, before he played a Super Rugby match. He displaced Josh Kronfeld, regarded at the time as one of the finest number 7s New Zealand rugby has produced. Kronfeld was discombulated by his dismissal and has bagged McCaw as a player ever since. But this has been a lone voice in the wilderness.

McCaw dropped his first ball in the All Blacks jersey. He went on to win the man of the match award in a win against Ireland, after the All Blacks were 20 points down at one stage in the Test. Now he has played 148 Tests for 131 wins, the Bradman of rugby players.

He is the first player to captain a side to win back-to-back Webb Ellis trophies.

So it is no surprise that even with a team full of old champions, the All Blacks fielded a player, Nehe Milner-Skudder, who made his first Test start this season. The Wallabies had no first-year Test players on the field at Twickenham. The Wallabies, too, were a slightly older team than the All Blacks.

Milner-Skudder played confidently and accurately in the intensity of the Rugby World Cup final. During the tournament, he scored six tries. He is certain to be named World Rugby’s new player of the year on Monday night.

Before the final, the All Blacks back three were ranked second (Ben Smith 453m), third (Nehe Milner-Skudder 437m) and fifth (Julian Savea 395m) in metres gained by all the players in the tournament.

By way of comparison and an insight possibly into which team (the All Blacks clearly) has the most attacking growth to build on, the Wallabies list of metres gained was headed by 13th (Drew Mitchell 283m), 17th (Adam Ashley-Cooper 261m), and 19th (Israel Folau 259m).

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When you look at the All Blacks squad of 23 that played so splendidly in the final against a brave but out-classed Wallabies side, the presumption is easily made that their talented back three (Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder) can go through to Japan 2019 – unless some new prodigy emerges to oust one of them.

The All Blacks front five has another four years ahead of them. While McCaw can never be replaced, there is cohort of loose forwards in the All Blacks squad and coming through the ranks (Sam Cane and Ardie Savea, for instance) who have possibilities of their own special greatness within them.

Dan Carter, 99 wins from 112 Tests, and 19 points from goals (with only one miss) to clinch the first Rugby World Cup final he has played out of four, can never be replaced. He is the greatest number 10 I have seen. As a kid I saw Jackie Kyle, the Irish genius, and aside from Cliff Morgan, I reckon I have seen all the great five-eighths, including Barry John, Mark Ella and Stephen Larkham.

Carter has the best qualities of all these talented players in his game. I am reminded of his galaxy of talents of JFK telling a distinguished group of Nobel Prize Winners at the White House that they were the greatest collection of talent ever gathered in the building since the time when President Thomas Jefferson dined alone there.

Carter has been the Jefferson of five-eighths.

There was a sense, to me at least, of the passing of the torch of the play-maker at the end of the final from the incomparable Carter to the brilliant Beauden Barrett.

The Wallabies were down 27-17 with minutes still to play. They were still bravely trying to win the final. But a promising, potentially try-scoring movement broke down inside the All Blacks 22 when Drew Mitchell dropped an inside-ball from Kurtley Beale.

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Instinctively, the All Blacks ran the ball back. The ball was finally booted on. Barrett, Carter’s successor, chased through and past a lumbering, exhausted David Pocock using his extraordinary pace to gather the ball in and score near the posts.

I will digress here to make this point as an explanation or indeed a proof of the greatness of this All Blacks side. Every other team in the world, in similar circumstances, and this includes the Wallabies, would have been happy to sit on their 10 point and boot the ball into touch.

The All Blacks attacked. They looked to put on more points with a try. Why? Because the DNA of this side involves thinking about scoring points by running in tries, no matter what the situation is. They also have a love and passion for what is sometimes called by New Zealand rugby players, “expressing” themselves by running the ball.

I made the point in an earlier analysis of the All Blacks that they Dare To Win. And as the SAS motto declares: Who Dares Wins.

The Springboks coach (but for how long?) Heyneke Meyer has made a prediction that his squad next year and going into the Rugby World Cup 2019 in Japan will be ‘unbeatable’. He needs to take note of the rugby truth the All Blacks are establishing: great teams Dare To Win.

They do not, as Meyer’s Springboks did when kicking for goal against the Pumas in the Bronze Medal game, although they were well in front and time was running out, Dare Not To Lose.

If the Springboks and South African rugby at the Super Rugby level do not change the entire mental set of their thinking and embrace the 15-man game, then the Springboks will move inexorably down the list of top tier rugby nations.

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The Pumas, with their intention to play the 15-man game while rightly retaining their traditional physicality, are likely to go pass the Springboks in the next four years unless South African rugby goes back to the 15-man game that was played up to the 1980s.

One of the unintended consequences of rugby becoming a professional game has been the rise in importance of coaches. Instead of having players two nights in the week and on game day, provincial and national coaches now have their players 24/7.

The players are now fitter and, if the coaches are smart, they have skills that even the best players in past eras could not hope to achieve. These skills are physical and increasingly mental.

One of the most important members of the All Blacks coaching staff is Gilbert Enoka, a professional psychologist. Enoka has taught the players how to cope with the pressure of being All Blacks and being expected to win every Test.

This expectation can be very exhausting and daunting. I remember back in the 1990s, after the Wallabies had won their first Rugby World Cup tournament, a discussion at a rugby lunch between the great David Campese and the champion goal-kicker and tactician Grant Fox, now an All Blacks selector, on this issue.

Campese complained about the way the Australian rugby public turned on the Wallabies if they lost. He argued that this sort of pressure was a killer for team morale.

Fox, on the other hand, said that the All Blacks were a side that was expected by their supporters and the players to win every Test. They knew there would be intense criticism when they lost. Fox argued that this was good for the team and the players. It concentrated their minds. It stopped them from making any excuses about losing.

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And it identified the good players who did not respond to pressure (and should be dropped) from the great players who did.

Enoka has developed techniques for the All Blacks to cope with the pressures that come from being expected to win and being accused (stupidly) of being chokers when they lost. Players go into a blue cap thinking zone when the pressure is on. They actively try to get out a red-head mode, that is caused by stress or frustration.

They also work out that they can relieve pressure on the field by stamping their feet (McCaw) or having a bucket of water thrown over them (Brad Thorn). Kieran Read stares at the farthest part of the stadium.

According to Enoka, “the brain is made up of three parts: instinct, emotion and thinking … What happens under pressure is that thinking shuts down so you are relying on emotion and instinct. That in turn means you can no longer pick up the cues and information to make good decisions.”

The language the players use is also far more positive than what they used in the past. The players say and mean (presumably) that they enjoy the fact that they are facing the pressure of a final. The attitude is rather like that of someone who dislikes having a birthday but understanding that the alternative is even less desirable.

It was noticeable, for instance, how intense, focused, aggressive and effective the All Blacks were at the beginning of the final. They put a stranglehold on the match in terms of possession and territory and attacks on the Wallabies try line that was never really gave away.

Even when the Wallabies came back in the second half with Ben Smith off the field with a yellow card and the scoreline tightened up to 24-17, the All Blacks remained composed. They swarmed back into the Wallabies half. They were efficient with their lineout and clear-out.

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Dan Carter knocked over a drop goal only five minutes later, even though there was still 20 minutes to play. Carter worked on the (correct) theory that taking a shot while the Wallabies were not expecting him to so gave him the best chance of success. Brilliant thinking.

And great coaching. It needs to be remembered that the All Blacks did the same thing to the Wallabies in the 2011 Rugby World Cup semi-final when Aaron Cruden kicked an early second half drop goal, easily taken, to extend a good lead into a more comfortable lead.

Successful coaching is all about shrewd selecting, in my opinion. And, in this sense, the All Blacks won the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament back in 2013 when the veterans of the Rugby World Cup 2011 campaign sat down in a hotel room with coach Steve Hansen to plot out how they were going to win at Twickenham two years later.

Among the All Blacks at the meeting were Conrad Smith (30), Richie McCaw (32), Dan Carter (31), Keven Mealamu (34), Ali Williams (32), Tony Woodcock (32), Cory Jane (30), Andrew Hore (34) and Piri Weepu (29).

Hansen made a decision to keep Smith, McCaw, Carter, Mealamu and Woodcock for Rugby World Cup 2015, even if on the way they were injured. But the other four were targeted as expendable. As soon as adequate replacements emerged, they were gone.

There was no sentimentality in this. It was, literally, a survival of the fittest decision. Hansen also worked to the equation that the players he wanted for Rugby World Cup 2015 were, again literally, among the greatest All Blacks ever to don the black jersey.

But then he did something that marks him out as a great coach. Instead of slowing down the pace the All Blacks would play at to accommodate the old giants, he introduced a game plan to ramp up the speed of the All Blacks game to a level no team in the history of rugby has ever played at.

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All the new All Blacks were picked then for their ability or presumed ability to play effective, mistake-free rugby at great speed, of foot and thought, and great intelligence.

The key to all this was the new halfback, Aaron Smith. Wiry, fast around the field and the possessor of a bullet pass delivered with great accuracy and length, Smith set the tempo for the new All Blacks speed game.

Smith was also coached to do box kicks of a height and length that made them contestable. This often meant that the All Blacks were contesting kicks landing in their own half. But contestability was the crucial element.

When it came to the final selection of the 2015 Rugby World Cup squad, Israel Dagg and Cory Jane, players who had misbehaved before the quarter-final in Rugby World Cup 2011 and had lost form because of injuries in 2015, were dropped. Charles Puitau, who has left New Zealand to play in Ireland, was also dropped.

The key in these decisions, aside from form, was respect for the jersey.

The speedster Waiseke Naholo was selected, even though he couldn’t play the first two matches. And so was Milner-Skudder.

Carter went through the tortures of the damned with injuries in the two years before Rugby World Cup 2015. But Hansen’s support never wavered. He reckoned that form is transient, class is permanent. Carter rewarded his coach with a superb final. He missed one touch from a penalty and one kick at goal. He kicked 19 points. The value of this lies in the fact that if the All Blacks get 20 points in a Test, they will invariably win it.

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Carter was superb, too, in general play. He tackled like a loose forward, an attribute of his game that is often over-looked. Because he plays in the line on defence, he is invariably in place to make the best use of turnovers.

By contrast, Bernard Foley plays out of the line, often at fullback on defence. When David Pocock and Scott Fardy got their turnovers early in the final, the Wallabies lacked the organisation to make much of them.

McCaw, too, was superb in the final. The final was billed (and I admit to doing this, as well) as the battle of the fetchers. Whoever controlled the ruck, it was argued, would win the final. The common assumption was, especially from Australian commentators, that Pocock would overwhelm the ageing McCaw and, thereby, create the circumstances for an historic Wallabies victory.

We now come to try and understand the real genius of McCaw’s play, and the coaching genius of Hansen.

The great strength of McCaw’s game has not been his strength over the ball. He has this, of course. He won as many turnovers as Pocock, by my count, in the final. But unlike Pocock, this was not what he mainly did. McCaw touched the ball many more times than Pocock, aside from the rolling mauls. And he made tackles all over the field. Why?

Because of his uncanny ability, his genius as a rugby player, spotted when was a schoolboy, of being able to read the play, somewhat like a Tarot card master.

Holding all the reins but driving the All Blacks forward is their coach Steve Hansen. There are two things that need to be known about Hansen. First, he believes that a fast, high-quality style of playing rugby is the most effective way of winning games.

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He developed this with Wales in their Rugby World Cup campaign in 2003. The Welsh players never quite bought into this rugby-chess approach. The All Blacks did.

Hansen insists that the coach’s job is to make the complex simple: “The simpler you can make it for somebody, the easier it is to do.” Simple does not mean dumb, however. Taking complex answers and reducing them to a workable clarity is what Hansen means by simple.

The All Blacks make it look easy, as when they scored two of their tries just before half-time and just after half-time. But in reality both tries involved complicated skills in running angles, making off-loads and passing with the correct weighting on the ball.

Second: “Win your set pieces, get good quality ball and hopefully score points.”

Notice that Hansen does not suggest that the All Blacks dominate the set pieces. If this happens, well and good. In fact, the All Blacks scrum did manage to come out sort of all square in the scrums against the Wallabies. But they did dominate the Wallabies lineout. This was useful because the Wallabies, like the Springboks, use the rolling maul (or try to use it) as a major way of scoring points.

In fact, one of the Wallabies’ tries did come from the rolling maul. But they were beaten soundly in the lineouts which meant a lot of defending when they should have been attacking.

We get to the part of the final that probably was as important as any other aspect in deciding its outcome: how the All Blacks coped with the Pocock menace.

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The answer was brilliant and simple. They moved play away from Pocock. When play was near him they tried to make Pocock the tackler. The champion fetcher had a couple of turnovers and made one great broken field tackle on Savea. But the enduring image of him in the final was lumbering forlornly like a tank with hardly any petrol in it after the Rolls Royce speedster Barrett before he planted the ball down for a try.

The hard truth about Pocock’s play compared with McCaw’s is that it is one dimensional, or perhaps as the tail-gunner of the rolling maul, two dimensional.

McCaw’s play is multi-dimensional. He is strong in lineouts. He tackles ferociously. He runs aggressively. He passes adroitly. He can kick well with his left-foot. And he reads the play better than just about anyone in the history of the game. Every time there was a Wallabies unexpected break-out, there was McCaw setting up the All Blacks first line of staunch defence.

There is one other aspect to Hansen’s coaching that deserves to be noted. He is calm, even at the most taxing times for his team. He admits he is not as bland as he seems to be: “There’s is a lot of tension going on inside … If you’ve got to make any decisions, like substitutes, you’ve got to be clear, so you’re trying to stay calm.”

For the record, Hansen used his reserve bench with typical effectiveness bringing on Sonny Bill Williams, for instance, at the start of the second half. Two quick off-loads by SBW opened up a broken field situation for Ma’a Nonu to burst through and score one of the great individual tries in a Rugby World Cup final.

I always think that when a coach keeps his emotions under control, the players will do the same. Think Wayne Bennett. Think Steve Hansen. I have never believed that it is good for a team, especially in high pressure matches, for the coach to show excesses of emotion. This is the stuff of losers. Think Heyneke Meyer. Think Sir Clive Woodward (with the 2005 British and Irish Lions).

For this reason, I am equivocal about Michael Cheika’s emoting so strongly during the final. He showed clearly from time to time how he disagreed with the rulings of the referee Nigel Owens, who had, in fact, a splendid match. This dissent tends to infiltrate the psyche of the players.

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We go back to Dan Carter for a last view of a great player and his great team. It is one of the sadnesses of sport and life, for that matter, that every career ends no matter how glorious it has been.

While the All Blacks supporters belted out Queen’s We Are The Champions, Carter was talking to reporters about his (sweet/sad?) thoughts at the ending of his Test career on such a triumphant note: “I’ve been fighting those thoughts all week – these thoughts about the outcome whether we were going to win or whether we were going to lose … It’s such a special night, to be part of a special group and achieve something that no one else has done … It’s a dream come true.”

Carter revealed that even in the fury of the battle, there is the element of the daring kid still in his play. With time up and victory, he converted Barrett’s try with his right boot, not his usual left boot. Just for the fun of it, he told reporters.

The All Black winners are grinners now for the next four years, and beyond … I would suggest that even this far out from Rugby World Cup 2019 in Japan that the All Blacks are already favourites to make it three Webb Ellis trophies in a row.

On Tuesday: What does the future hold for Michael Cheika’s Wallabies?

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