The 2015 Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance won the race off a slow pace in a huge surprise that few will remember for winning money on, and many will remember for the story of jockey Michelle Payne, the first female to win the race.
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Pace of the race a huge factor
2015’s Official Time of 3 minutes 23.15 seconds (last 600m – 33.97 seconds) was close to six seconds behind the 2014 time.
2014’s Official Time of 3 minutes 17.71 seconds (last 600m – 35.08 seconds) was the second fastest Melbourne Cup since 1990, off a hot tempo.
The pace and tempo of the 2015 Melbourne Cup was slow, and initially, super slow. Big Orange lead, but at a jog and no pressure was put on mid-race.
That was very clearly seen when the field bunched up hugely around the turn, and horses were strung wide.
The slow pace meant it was more of a sit and sprint and less of a true staying test, which failed to suit many runners.
The track bias meant some couldn’t win
Ultimately, Prince of Penzance benefitted massively from a track bias, where horses closer to the inside were on firmer ground, and horses on the outside were on slow, soft ground, referred to as quicksand by jockeys.
The favourite Fame Game had his chance but was stuck out wide in the bog and had no hope of tackling the winning group on the inside of the track.
Think of trying to run through mud while your rivals run on an Olympic sprinting track. Fame Game finished 13th.
Shocking interference
At about the 300m mark, Frankie Dettori on Max Dynamites shifts out, pushing out Gust of Wind behind it which shifts and takes out a number of chances, almost skittling Hokko Brave, Grand Marshal, and Preferment, which in turns inconveniences a number of chances out wider including Kingfisher.
All of those horses had at least some chance – Preferment was flying from the back – but that ended their runs, and it’s probably a miracle no one was hurt.
Frankie Dettori plead guilty to the charges laid on him by stewards, was fined $20,000 and has been suspended globally for a month. A huge ban, and appropriate. Dettori noted his impeccable record and that he couldn’t see Gust of Wind behind him, but it was a major issue in the race. Would Gust of Wind run a place? Would Hokko Brave, Preferment, Kingfisher and the rest finished closer?
Injuries
Both Snow Sky and Red Cadeaux were pulled up out of the race. Red Cadeaux was clearly injured and we are all thinking of him as he undergoes surgery. Snow Sky was a real chance, in the right leading bunch and right part of the track, but was pulled up. Jockeys know when something has gone wrong on their horses and Snow Sky must’ve had something go wrong.
We’ll find out more.
Did the best horse win?
In a word, no.
Does it matter? Well, no. Handicap races are meant to equalise a field and Prince of Penzance carried a light 53kg to victory. Criterion, the third placed horse, lugged 57.5kg and should those weights have been reversed, we would very likely have seen a different result.
And that’s what makes the Melbourne Cup unusual, and special. Most top horse races are weight-for-age, where runners are given set weights based on their age and sex. Older, stronger horses carry more. Younger horses, and mares and fillies, carry less. That’s designed to give each horse weight based on age, rather than on ability.
Snow Sky was one of the classiest horses in the race, and with 58kgs on its back, ended up second last.
So the best horse didn’t win, but it was the best run of the race and made the most of all the conditions to win.
Many strong form analysts said this was one of the hardest Melbourne Cups to pick ever. We don’t know a single form expert or tipster who picked Prince of Penzance, which doesn’t imply they don’t know what they’re doing, but that the race was an unusual one.
But it’s a great story for local trainer Darren Weir and the first female jockey, Michelle Payne, to win. Lots of punters who did their money said they didn’t care and may have even wiped a tear from the eye!
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