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The first four weeks of A-League football is enough to convince me there is an extremely high degree of probability the champion team will again be one of last season’s top two – Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC.
It is too early to say no other team can win, but of the other eight I would say the door is slightly ajar for Brisbane Roar and that while it isn’t shut on Melbourne City there is only peeking space available for them at this stage. =
I don’t see any other team as a genuine championship contender.
Newcastle Jets have made a bright start to the season under a confident new coach in Scott Miller and could easily go on to make the finals – after all, six of the 10 teams do – but there isn’t enough substance there for them to win it all.
Wellington Phoenix have some appeal under coach Ernie Merrick, but last season they fell at the final few hurdles even with Nathan Burns in the side. The overwhelming likelihood is that they won’t be able to match the likes of teams like Victory and Sydney at the death.
The current doubt over Wellington’s future as an A-League club beyond this season is an issue they could obviously do without as well.
Perth Glory have had a big turnover of players since the club was caught cheating the salary cap last season and this season’s version is not nearly as good. Glory play a reactive style of football as well that won’t be good enough when it comes to the crunch.
Western Sydney Wanderers have shown some encouraging signs early on, but their squad isn’t as good as the ones with which they started the club’s first seasons and finished beaten grand finalists each time. There aren’t any Shinji Onos or Aaron Mooys there.
Fair to say, Mooy wasn’t the same player at Wanderers as he is now at City, but he wasn’t used the same way. Mooy was predominantly a holding midfielder at Wanderers and is the midfield playmaker at City. Wanderers could do with him in that latter role now.
Central Coast Mariners simply aren’t good enough and are more concerned with going down all guns blazing, if that is the way it is going to be, by employing an all-out attacking style they hope will at least attract the fans.
Adelaide United are the major disappointments of the season so far. There doesn’t appear to be the same drive, the same enthusiasm under Guillermo Amor as coach that there was under Josep Gombau. Plus, they continue to lack a dominant front-man who regularly scores goals.
United have started shipping way too many goals early on. They are in trouble.
So back to the four chances, by my reckoning at least, and it is timely to talk about Victory because against Phoenix on Monday night they finally started to put it all together and really look like defending champions.
Victory were off the boil a bit during the first three rounds. Nothing too dramatic, but it wasn’t quite as intense and precise from them as we came to expect last season. It was much better, though, in their 3-0 win over Wellington.
Besart Berisha had missed a lot of chances through the first three rounds, scoring one goal during that time, but he was at his desperate and dynamic best to get a double against Phoenix.
Victory have far too good a roster to not be in the finish of this competition, as long as they want to be. Monday night said they want it.
Sydney FC coach Graham Arnold has concentrated on building a defence that is consistently difficult to break down. Last season, his team had the most clean sheets, with nine, but there were too many other games in which they conceded three or more goals.
One of those was the grand final, which Victory won 3-0.
Arnold coached a Mariners team that was defiant in defence when it won the 2012-13 season championship. It is his trademark to instil that quality in a side.
Sydney are conceding at half-a-goal per game early on. That is a very good sign.
Finally, to the two sides that could potentially interrupt a Victory-Sydney domination.
Brisbane have some issues in defence that they need to eliminate, but they have two excellent young forwards in Jamie Maclaren and Brandon Borrello who are clearly playing with the belief that they are going to score every time they get out there.
Combined with Corona and Thomas Broich in the creative department, Roar are the bowling-ball team of the competition. They can overcome a big mistake by nailing a few quick strikes.
Brisbane will have their downs, but appear likely to have many more ups. They are the type of team that will make the opposition uneasy because of their ability to hurt you not only with the run of play, but against it.
City need to learn hard and fast from their 3-2 loss at home to Newcastle on Friday, after being 2-0 up. That was extremely disappointing and too big a reminder of their frustratingly inconsistent ways of last season. If they do learn, they will push hard for a top-four spot.
But the history of the A-League under the current finals format says you must finish the regular season in the top two to go on and win the championship and that is where Victory and Sydney have the advantage, with strong playing rosters, big-game know-how and consistency under pressure.
The rest face the difficult challenge of trying to break that hold.
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