We’re halfway through Cup week, and if you’re like me and have had a bet in all 19 races so far (don’t judge me), then you’re doing well to be in front.
Still, there’s plenty of time to get back in the black if you’re behind, and plenty of racing to surge further in front if you’re ahead.
Today is Oaks Day, unarguably the weakest of the Cup week cards, but there’s still good racing to be had.
The Crown Oaks is the feature, as the fillies get to chance their hand (or hooves as the case may be) over the 2500-metre staying test. We saw the hot favourite, Tarzino, take out the Derby on Saturday, but there are three horses fighting for favouritism in this event.
Sacred Eye is the current market-elect, with form that is first class in her four-start career. The only horses to beat her home as she’s stepped up in distance and grade have been Don’t Doubt Mamma, impressive Listed winner on Cup Day, and Badawiya, Thousand Guineas place-getter.
Last start, Sacred Eye had the right run, but beat the boys easily in the Caulfield Classic, including Caulfield Guineas place-getter Lizard Island, and Derby place-getter Etymology. Her form couldn’t be any stronger, and she looks like the trip will be no issue.
Jameka is also at the top of the betting, coming off a Thousand Guineas second and winning the Vase, defeating Tarzino in the process. Admittedly, she had a dream rails run at Moonee Valley when it was the place to be, but she was still dogged at the finish.
This is a very good filly that has yet to run a bad race, and is likely to have a big presence in Australian racing over the next year and a half.
Pasadena Girl has met Jameka four times this campaign, and finished behind her in the last three of them. She gets a tongue tie on here, and could be a case of being trained to the minute for her ultimate goal, but she’s been a fraction plain this prep since her eye-catching first-up run.
Hugh Bowman would still be reeling after having Preferment smashed out of the Melbourne Cup, and might feel this week owes him a Group 1 on her.
Ambience is the third of the favoured runners, coming off a dominant Wakeful Stakes performance, where she accounted for six of her Oaks rivals, the closest of which was four lengths away.
Ambience was underwhelming in the Ethereal Stakes the start before, but John O’Shea was confident that wasn’t the real her, and his convictions were proven emphatically correct. The Wakeful Stakes has provided four of the last six Oaks winners, three of which did the double. She’s right in the race.
Looking at the rest of the Wakeful field, Dawnie Perfect was very good in inferior ground to run fourth, she had more to give than she was allowed. She easily rounded up and went past Ambience in the Ethereal, and must have claims.
Muzyka tracked Ambiance all the way up the straight in the better going, but was simply no match for her. Zarabeel ran well, already looking for further while steadily making ground in the straight, and her last 50 metres was the best part of her race. She’ll get the trip no problem, and is the best bolter in the race.
Ritzy made her Wakeful run with Zarabeel, and was good, but didn’t exactly savage the line. The Grey Flash will get the Oaks trip, but just a lot slower than others. She’ll get 5000 metres if you give her the chance, plodding away, and really needs to be renamed. Princess Aria won’t be winning.
Honesta comes straight from the Ethereal, where she finished second, splitting Dawnie Perfect and Ambiance. The start before, she was an inch short of nailing Speak Fondly in the Flight Stakes. That ties her into the Golden Rose form up in Sydney, and she’s out of a VRC Derby winner so the 2500 metres should suit.
As honest as they come, she’s sure to be somewhere around the mark, and at the very least she’ll make them beat her.
The remaining runner is Dulverton, coming from the Geelong Classic, where she ran very well with a few little things against. She was competitive with the B-grade boys, but some of her Oaks rivals have been beating the A-graders.
Having two three-year-old fillies, Jameka and Sacred Eye, having already beaten the best boys in their age group, speaks to the quality of this Oaks. Ambience beat the boys up in Sydney too, in the Dulcify, and Honesta’s form ties her in ahead of most of them too.
There’s no obvious speed in the race, and we might see Jameka take them along unless something wants to change things up and lead. If something does, we could see a result out of the box. The other variable is of course, the weather, with thunderstorms predicted.
Selections
1. Ambience
2. Jameka
3. Sacred Eye
4. Zarabeel
With eight other races on the card, there are more opportunities to play than just the Oaks. Seven of the 10 Cup Day winners were paying double figures. Actually, make that six, with one paying triple figures! We can expect more of the same today with massive fields and a host of chances.
Here are some horses that might be able to run a race at value prices:
Race 2 – Firehouse Rock – $12
Has been in great form since having blinkers applied. He doesn’t quite run out a strong 2000 metres, despite winning and running second at the trip his last two starts, so the drop back to 1800 metres is absolutely perfect for him.
The horse that beat him last time franked the form in the Kyneton Cup yesterday, and he’s good enough to be right in the mix here. Wet ground might be a concern though.
Race 7 – I Love It – $18
This lightly raced mare showed her quality back in the autumn, almost winning the Group 1 Sangster in Adelaide at only her 10th start, and running Griante to half a length at level weights in Sydney.
Her return was fair this campaign, and then she was the best swooper in a race dominated by those on the pace behind a good one in Vezalay. She’s good to go at a price.
Race 9 – Cordoba – $41
Two back he was caught last and had to make his way through the field and around slow horses in an eye-catching finish behind no less a mare than Azkadellia. Last start was more of the same, flashing home through the field after again going back to last, in a race where the quinella sat first and second in the run.
He was unsuitably dropping back in distance last time out, is screaming for the mile now (albeit has yet to be tested at the trip), and is jumping out of a nice gate after drawing the widest barrier in big fields at his last two. If horses are running on, he could give us a big roar at big odds to finish to the day.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
