Race 8 at Ascot WA on Saturday (4.35 AEDT) sees the running of one our best Group 1 Mile handicap races, the Railway Stakes.

It is certainly one of my favourite races on the Australian calendar each year but I do love a good handicap!

This one nearly always has plenty of depth, and this year is no exception with a plethora of winning chances and a the barrier draw that has confused the issue even further, given so many of the favoured horses have drawn a little awkwardly.

Historically it had been quite an easy race to predict until very recent times but it’s still a good starting point in the quest to find the winner.

I am mainly focusing on the last 13 winners in this study, as that is as far back as I can go back to utilise data. The last fifteen winners are listed below with Age, Gender, Barrier Draw and winning weight;

2014 ELITE BELLE 6M (12) 53.5kg
2013 LUCKYGRAY 6G (12) 58kg
2012 MR MOET 5G (4) 53.5KG
2011 LUCKYGRAY 4G (12) 53KG
2010 GATHERING 4G (6) 52KG
2009 SNIPER’S BULLET 6G (12) 56.5KG
2008 GILDED VENOM 4G (9) 52KG
2007 EL PRESIDENTE 4G (4) 55.5KG
2006 BELLE BIZARRE 5M (6) 54KG
2005 COVERTLY 4M (2) 51KG
2004 MODEM 6G (7) 55KG
2003 HARDRADA 4G (13) 54KG (Race staged at Belmont).
2002 OLD FASHION 5G (1) 54.5KG
2001 OLD COMRADE 4G (8) 53.5KG
2000 NORTHERLY 4G (12) 51KG

These are the most pertinent historical statistics;

1. 9/13 have carried less than 55.5kg to win, and 11/13 carried less than 56.5kg. 2007 winner El Presidente carried 55.5kg but was only 0.5kg over the minimum that year.
2. 11/13 dropped in weight from their prior start, and 11/13 didn’t rise in weight. The average weight drop over this period is roughly 2.5kg. No horse has won rising more than 1kg off it’s last start
3. 9/13 have been either 4 or 5 years of age, and no horse has won beyond 6 years of age since 1989. 4yo’s have won eight of the last 16, and 15 of the past 35.
4. The Lee Steere Classic and RJ Peters Stakes have produced nine of the past 13 winners. Of the others Mr Moet was first up , Sniper’s Bullet and Gathering came via Melbourne, and Luckgray came through the Asian Beau Stakes to win controversially on protest.
5. 11/13 placed in the first 4 at their prior start, and all of those have been Western Australia gallopers. 24 winners since 1985 finished first, second or third at their prior start. Stick with an in form galloper! The 2 Eastern States winners in recent times were well beaten at their previous start (Sniper’s Bullet andamp; Gathering)
6. 8/13 have won from barriers 1-9, and 12/13 from barriers 1-12. Hardrada won from barrier 13 in 2003 but the race was run at Belmont that year. Oddly four of the past six winners have come out of barrier, 12 as did Northerly in 2000.
7. 4 of the past 13 winners had run in this race in one of the past two years. three of those ran second in this race.
8. The last 4 winners have come from a midfield or worse position to win, which is a total reversal for this race which was largely dominated by on pace horses (or those sitting on pace to midfield) in the decade prior.
9. 12/13 had raced in Perth at some stage before winning. Gathering in 2010 is the only one not to have done so, and he got a soft lead off a very suitable (for him) 27 day break leading in.
10. Only 2 Stallions have won the race in the past 27 years, with the last being Island Morn in 1994.
11. Average winning price is around $10 and that is consistent with the results over more than a 20 year period.

Summing up the ideal historical candidate would be;

A) 4 to 6 years of age, B) Finished in the first 4 placings last start, C) Carrying less than 55.5kg, D) Coming from a barrier no wider than 12, E) Had a lead up run in the Lee Steere or RJ Peters and F) Be dropping in weight 2.5kg or more. G) Preferably be a gelding or mare. Finding one with all these pre requisites at a double figure quote would be ideal.

Tempo;

Fuchsia Bandana should lead this field from barrier 1 with Hazzabeel very keen to get across to the rail from his wide barrier. Outside of that pairing only really Messene is likely to take up a very prominent position, though Good Project can race on the pace, and a perfect opportunity presents itself here from a perfect barrier. Maybe similar can be said for Real Love who raced closer to the pace than probably anticipated last start when winning the Asian Beau. At face value it’s hard to predict a truly run race, or a high pressure one, so maybe an on pace horse has an advantage.

Analysis with assessed odds;

1. BLACK HEART BART 5g
Has incredibly won his last seven starts in Perth and nine of his past ten. He has looked no good thing in all of his three starts this preparation but has won found a way to win all of them narrowly.

Although he isn’t well weighted against a few he has met and beaten recently, and 1600m is maybe not his best distance, he is showing champion qualities and cannot be underestimated. He can carry and concede weight as evidenced by his listed race win at Bunbury over 1400m in March when he absolutely demolished a decent field that received a minimum of 5.5kg off him.

Historically it’s probably a no for him, but the same could have been said for Luckygray in 2013, and this horse is similar in ability and even more prolific. $6.50

2. MESSENE 7g
Comes to Western Australia not in the best of form, but is likely to enjoy a firm surface, and he has drawn ideally to get the run of the race. He finished a bit too far back last start to get ovelry keen on his chances but he does resemble 2009 winner Sniper’s Bullet who ran poorly in Victoria prior but his on pace ability was used to great advantage.

The form of this horse is better on right handed tracks than it is on left handed ones. A nice weight drop could assist, and a slight freshen up is his favour. Not to be taken lightly but at seven years old he could struggle to make an impact from a historical viewpoint. $16

3. DELICACY 4m
Was the find of the Autumn being a duel Oaks/Derby winner in two states, something unheralded in the modern era, let alone any era. She has won six of her last seven starts and recently resumed for a good placing in the right lead up race, despite having every possible chance on the day.

Her test is going to be a wide barrier and beating some high quality rivals at this distance. William Pike has elected to ride her in preference to Real Love thugh and he pulled off a miraculous ride to win this race from barrier 12 last year. Dropping 3kg into this race and meeting Black Heart Bart 2kg better isn’t going to hurt her chances. $6.50

4. FUCHSIA BANDANA 5m
Is a local who just seems to struggle a little against the top liners. The 1.3 lenghts she was beaten in this race last year might be about the best level she can attain, but she has drawn better this year though, and you know she will be leading them into the straight in all probability. Might look the winner around the turn but I see a placing as more realistic for her. $33

5. REAL LOVE 5m
Is another quality female from Perth who did a great job winning the Asian Beau Stakes when resuming three weeks ago on a rain affected track. That made it four wins in a row over in the West and five from her past six starts.

Last November she was only just beaten by Black Heart Bart at level weights and meets him 4kg better at the weights. Bart might have improved a bit since then but the same can also be said for her. She is 2/2 second up which is the same scenario coming into this race. Very similar to Delicacy she gets a nice 3kg weight drop off her last start, but you just have to wonder where she will get too from a bad barrier. Damien Oliver might be best advised to go forward early to avoid the risk of being caught wide. $6

6. WINK AND A NOD 6m
Has done a great job to make it into this field after a stellar campaign that really started in December last year. Bar a two month hiatus in January she has been racing for 11 months and 16 starts, winning seven races in total. Last start she did show the signs of a long campaign though, after having every chance but coming up 2.5L short.

The 1600m might be a bit of a stretch for her too, and her barrier could make things just a little more difficult. She is very honest though and comes out of the right lead up race with a nice weight drop. Not hopeless but others look to have timed their preparation better. Ear Muffs are going on which could be a positive. $25

7. BALMONT GIRL 5m
Ran a great second in this race last year from an awkward barrier, and she has drawn a lot better this time around. She looks a little down on form this year but the track was rain affected in the Asian Beau Stakes where her run was solid but nothing to get excited about.

It’s the same preparation for her as last year, and only a slight improvement on last start will see her competitive because she does drop in weight. She hadn’t had much luck at all with barrier draws in recent times until last start which ironically might not have assisted her chances on the type of surface she encountered. This time last year she defeated Black Heart Bart at level weights. She looks a major player here and is going to be largely ignored in the betting market. Winning chance. $10

8. BASS STRAIT 6g
Looked the one last year on a historical basis and he was a bit disappointing if truth be told. He hasn’t won a race since, and has only won one race out of eleven starts in Perth. He has drawn to advantage but that didn’t help him last year, neither did the weight drop. Can’t give him too much of a winning chance. $33

9. BATTLE HERO 4g
Is very honest and is the right age and gender for the race. He has also drawn the right barrier and comes out of a good lead up race. Six wins and three placings from a ten start career speaks volumes for his consistency, and though he was a short price beaten favourite in the RJ Peters last start he did come off a three week break and was disadvantaged by a moderate pace. He will run the distance but does he have the quality? I’m not sure he does but he looks a major player historically. $14

10. GOOD PROJECT 4h
Is the second of the Eastern States visitors and is in the country’s leading stable of Chris Waller. This is a very hard race for visitors to win but he does remind me a little of He’s Remarkable who cruelly had this race taken off him on protest in 2011.

He drops massively in weight off a restricted class race over 1400m at Flemington where he was the runner up. The winner of that race was Malaguerra who subsequently won on Emirates day, and he did give that horse 4.5kg. The time of that race was above average, and had he carried the 53kg he has in this race that day he would undoubtedly have won quite easily and posted an incredibly fast time of 1.21.00.

Can he be the first stallion to win since 1994 or is that factor a considerable negative? He will most likely jump from barrier 12 which has such a great record in recent years.

Craig Williams rides and he won the race in 2010 on a go forward horse Sniper’s Bullet. He probably needs to employ similar tactics this year to win, and could be on the right horse to do so. Excellent winning hope if he handles the trip over, and the stable were unlucky not to win with Moriarty last year who ran a close third. $7

11. HAZZABEEL 5g
Is quite lightly raced for his age and a half brother to New Zealand Group 1 three year old winner Vespa. He won a good lead up race last week but did have an easy time in the lead which probably won’t transpire in this race given the presence of Fuchsia Bandana.

He was also soundly beaten by Real Love in receipt of 4kg in the Asian Beau and meets her 3kg worse for that race. He should get over and negate his wide barrier early, and he did win his last race at this distance very comfortably, albeit in lesser class. He looks the good historically and should make his present felt to some degree. Not sure he can win though. $16

12. MR UTOPIA 6g
Returns home to Western Australia where he has won eight races, though he needs to improve on a disappointing Spring campaign thus far.

Not sure his best would be good enough and his formline through Tashbeeh in Victoria has been rather usurped by Good Project who looks a stronger chance. A good barrier and weight drop are the positives and who knows what a return to familiar soil might provide? $25

13. MY SISTER LIL 5m
is a capable mare with good fitness levels but looks to be making up the numbers a little bit on her run last week in the RJ Peters. Hard to see her winning but she has drawn to advantage so could run into a placing. $40

14. SPECIAL DELIVERY 4g completes a quartert of Bob Peters owned horses in this race (Delicacy, Real Love and Battle Hero the others) and is another who boasts a very high winning strike rate. He faces the biggest task of the four though with the biggest class rise and a weight differential that doesn’t offset that factor.

He is nicely drawn, is the right age historically, and has won at the distance but it would be a mild shock were he to win. $33

15. TOWER OF LONHRO 7g is a case of last but not least, despite his seven year old status. Trainer Adam Durrant is acutely aware of his 4-3/7 record at the distance, and the fact he is unbeaten fourth up, as is the case here. He was a slightly unlucky third in a good lead up race a week ago, and has already won twice backing up off a weeks break.

Barrier 9 is perfect for him given he doesn’t excel from inside draws and he has never carried a weight lower than 56kg in a 36 start career Only 53kg here represents a weight drop of 6kg. If there is to be a major shock he is the one that can provide it and the $41 available looks massive overs on an Each Way basis. $14

Conclusion and selections:
As evidenced by my market and the official market this is a very hard race to assess, but it should be a great race to sit back and watch.

Historically BATTLE HERO looks to have the most in his favour with HAZZABEEL and GOOD PROECT not too far behind.

The best weighted horses appear to be the two Perth Mares DELICACY and REAL LOVE, but I just wonder if the latter is slightly better off in that respect, given she is older and has a WFA win against older horses?

It’s impossible to ignore BLACK HEART BART (despite his big weight), given his tenacity, fitness and incredible sequence of wins in Perth.

Mainly in the interests of value seeking I have selected my top Four in this order;

1. GOOD PROJECT- Might his fitness levels and on pace ability give him an advantage over the the three Western Australia stars? I’d be backing him win only and look for at least $8 which is available. That is a touch of value

2. TOWER OF LONHRO- Tremendous value looking at statistical factors. A must Each Way bet at the odds.

3. BALMONT GIRL- Nicely weighted and has drawn better than most of her classy Western Australia rivals. Another who can be backed Each Way given she is double the price she should be.

4. REAL LOVE- Probably the best weighted horse in the race. No real value at the moment so not keen to invest at this stage.