I’m absolutely certain that this is not the first phantom draft you’re going to have come across this year.

Still, I can’t help but write one up – I love to predict things, or try to predict things, and writing a phantom of the first round of the draft has become a tradition for me. Last year I got 11 picks out of 21 correct – this year, I expect to do worse.

The reason is that it’s a much more difficult draft to pick this year than has been the case in the past. The introduction of the new father-son and academy bidding system has added a whole new element as we must now try to predict where bids will come for these players.

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE DRAFT

On top of that, a number of clubs have traded up to get multiple high picks in this year’s draft, and it seems like much less information is leaking out as they all look to avoid letting the other sides know their plans.

The top two picks have been settled for some time now and it seems like the next few are starting to come together as clubs make their final decisions. However, we won’t know anything for certain until the numbers and names start getting read out on Tuesday night.

With that in mind, please enjoy my most-likely wildly inaccurate first round phantom for the 2015 AFL Draft.

UPDATED: THE COMPLETE 2015 AFL DRAFT ORDER

Pick 1 – Carlton – Jacob Weitering
Key defender – 195cm, 90kg

The player: An elite key defender, Weitering knows how to shut down an opponent but can do much more, he’s a great kick and intercept marker meaning he can combine his abilities as a stopper with some attacking play the other way. He’s also highly rated as a leader and many are tipping him to be a future club captain. Also, it’s his birthday today. Happy birthday, Jacob.

The reason: It’s something of a landmark moment as key defenders are virtually never chosen at the number one pick, but Weitering has been a standout player all year and the Blues will benefit as much from his leadership qualities as they will from his footballing ability.

Pick 2 – Brisbane – Josh Schache
Key forward – 199cm, 96kg

The player: The best key forward in the draft, Schache kicked a record number of goals in the national championships and was also dominant at TAC Cup level. Earmarked as a top two pick from a long way out, he’s also tall enough that he could spend some minutes in the ruck if required.

The reason: The Lions need a key forward, Schache is a key forward, it’s a perfect match. His dad played for the Brisbane Bears and Schache is on record as saying he’d love to continue his dad’s legacy in Queensland.

Pick 3 – Sydney – Callum Mills (academy)
Midfielder – 186cm, 80kg

The player: A prolific tallish midfielder, Mills was extremely impressive last year but in his draft year he has struggled with a series of injuries that have generally prevented him from playing any serious footy. Still, he’s done enough to be considered one of the best midfielders in the draft. A tough ball-winner ready to step into senior footy.

The reason: Expect Melbourne to make a bid for Mills here which Sydney will be happy to match, and it will see them rise up the draft order. He’ll make a great understudy for someone like Josh P Kennedy.

Pick 4 – Melbourne – Clayton Oliver
Midfielder – 187cm, 86kg

The player: An inside bull, Oliver didn’t get to play at the national championships but instead has impressed recruiters with dominant form in the TAC Cup that saw him win the Morrish Medal – the TAC Cup equivalent of the Brownlow. He’s a top quality ball winner but also tested high in the athletic tests at the draft combine, suggesting the potential for further development.

The reason: The Dees have been linked to a number of players at this pick but they seem to have settled on Oliver in these last few days. It’s a remarkable rise as someone who wouldn’t have been considered a first round selection midway through the year becomes a top five contender.

Pick 5 – Greater Western Sydney – Jacob Hopper (academy)
Midfielder – 186cm, 82kg

The player: Hopper is a contested-ball midfielder who dominated at the national championships, a clearance winner who also likes to drift forward and kick goals. He has shown himself to be something of a leader and could become a club captain.

The reason: Hopper is tied to the Giants through their academy and will fit into their side well as they look to replace some of the grunt lost by Adam Treloar’s defection to Collingwood. He’s in a similar mould to current Giants captain Callan Ward. I suspect Essendon bid for him here and the Giants happily match.

Pick 6 – Essendon – Darcy Parish
Midfielder – 181cm, 73kg

The player: Parish is one of the best midfielders in the draft and in a bit of a point of difference from the other highly-rated midfielders in this draft is more of a ball-user than a ball-winner. That’s not to say he isn’t tough, but he’s definitely more suited to playing on the wing where his quality kicking will be a real weapon.

The reason: The Bombers would have to be ecstatic to see Parish make it past Melbourne after they looked likely to select him. They certainly could use more developing young midfielders and would be happy to secure Parish.

Pick 7 – Essendon – Aaron Francis
Utility – 191cm – 86kg

The player: Francis is the most versatile player in the draft, at his shape and size and with his talents he can play just about anywhere on the ground, whether he’s rebounding out of defence, kicking goals up forward, or learning his craft in the midfield.

The reason: This is more a talent pick than a needs pick, Francis is a quality player and the Bombers should be happy to secure him and see what position he turns out to be. He’s also a Bombers fan so that should put to ease any concern of a ‘go home’ factor for the South Australian.

Pick 8 – Gold Coast – Wayne Milera
Half-forward – 185cm, 75kg

The player: A classy half-forward, Milera had a solid performance at the national championship but really blew recruiters away with his form as a senior player in the SANFL. He’s versatile as someone who could play as a forward or a wingman or something in between at the next level, and loves to kick goals.

The reason: The Suns probably wouldn’t mind a pure midfielder at this pick but I don’t think there’s one on the board they’d rate highly enough to take. Instead, Milera makes a good replacement for Harley Bennell as a similar type of player on their list.

Pick 9 – Melbourne – Sam Weideman
Key forward – 196cm, 91kg

The player: Generally considered the second best key forward in the draft, Weideman has struggled with injury over the past two years, but has still shown enough potential to be a high draft pick. He played some impressive games earlier this year against VFL-level opposition for the AFL Academy.

The reason: Melbourne are very keen on getting a key forward partner for Jesse Hogan and were reportedly weighing up Weideman with their first pick a little while back. However he did some late testing and the results weren’t super impressive, so it now seems like he will slip to them here.

Pick 10 – Greater Western Sydney – Matthew Kennedy (academy)
Midfielder – 187cm, 84kg

The player: A tallish midfielder, Kennedy has shown some great form this year but injuries have prevented him from building up a really strong body of work. Still, he’s shown enough to be a high draft pick, with the standout quality being his strong marking ability – not only can he win the ball, but he’s a real threat in the air.

The reason: Carlton should make a bid here I reckon, and the Giants will be more than happy to match it. They’ve got Kennedy through their academy and will be more than happy to pick him up.

Pick 11 – Carlton – Harry McKay
Key forward – 200cm, 85kg

The player: McKay is a developing key forward who hasn’t necessarily dominated the under 18 competitions but has shown a lot of really promising attributes. At 200cm he’s almost the tallest key forward in the draft but he’s no plodder, his athleticism and ground work is really impressive for someone of his height. With the right development, he could be an elite tall forward.

The reason: The Blues could certainly use a quality tall to build their future forward line around and McKay is the best one available here.

Pick 12 – Adelaide – Charlie Curnow
Key forward/midfielder – 191cm, 95kg

The player: Curnow has spent most of his time playing as a key forward but also had a bit of a go as a midfielder, and it could be as a mid where he winds up spending most of his time as an AFL footballer. He’s got excellent endurance but a knee injury prevented him from really settling into a midfield role. As a forward he’s impressive too so you’d be happy either way.

The reason: Talked about as a likely top five selection until a few days ago when he spent the night with the police after refusing a breath test, I think Curnow falls a bit down the draft order but not too far. The Crows might consider him worth the punt at this pick.

Pick 13 – Brisbane – Eric Hipwood (academy)
Key forward/key defender – 202cm, 82kg

The player: Hipwood is a versatile tall who has shown some incredible athleticism for a 202cm prospect, though he’ll need to put some more weight on before he can seriously compete at AFL level. Could end up as a key forward, could end up as a key defender, either way, he looks like a really good prospect.

The reason: Carlton could do with another versatile tall and I would expect them to bid on the Brisbane academy prospect here. The Lions will be more than happy to match.

Pick 14 – Carlton – Kieran Collins
Key defender – 194cm, 95kg

The player: Considered the second best key defender in the draft behind Jacob Weitering, Collins is a great shut down player capable of matching up on big forwards. He has developed a little attacking game also, though it’s definitely his shut down capabilities that he’s getting selected for.

The reason: I suspect the Blues will focus on loading up with talls in this draft and a Weitering/Collins combination would be too tempting to pass up. It could be the spine of their backline for a decade to come.

Pick 15 – Richmond – Ryan Burton
Key forward – 191cm, 90kg

The player: A hugely talented if slightly undersized key forward, Burton showed great promise last year and could easily be the number one pick this year had it not been for a horrific broken leg he suffered in 2014. He’s still working his way back but looks like a great prospect once he can get on the park.

The reason: The Tigers would love to find another player who can kick goals at this pick with Jack Riewoldt and to a lesser extent Tyrone Vickery their only reliable options at the moment. Burton could be an absolute bargain, and has a great attitude.

Pick 16 – Adelaide – Harley Balic
Half-forward – 186cm, 80kg

The player: A versatile player who is capable of having an impact in most areas of the ground, Balic probably starts his career as a half-forward before progressing to being a fulltime midfielder. He’s got some great evasive skills and moves through traffic really well, always having that little bit of extra time to execute his decisions.

The reason: The Crows don’t have any huge list-needs so they can afford to go best available here and have been linked with Balic a bit. In Curnow and Balic, they’d be taking two very versatile players who can win the ball and kick goals.

Pick 17 – St Kilda – Callum Ah Chee
Small forward/midfielder – 182cm, 71kg

The player: Ah Chee is a goal-kicking small forward who looks like he could eventually move up the ground and spend at least part of his time playing around the wing and half-forward role. In a similar mould to Chad Wingard as a clever goalkicker with midfield potential.

The reason: Ah Chee is tricky to place – if you pick him on potential he could be top 10, if you pick him on performance he could be lower than this, as he had an average year. Still, the Saints would love his pace, would love his ability to kick goals, I think they’d pick him up.

Pick 18 – Brisbane – Ben Keays (academy)
Midfielder – 185cm, 82kg

The player: Keays is a prolific midfielder who can win the ball and tackle hard but also has shown some good form when resting up forward. He maybe doesn’t have a real point of difference like some of the top end midfielders in this draft but should provide another layer of talent to any midfield.

The reason: Hawthorn I think would be happy to add a player like Keays to their mix and will bid on him here, with Brisbane happy to match.

Pick 19 – Hawthorn – Darcy Tucker
Half-back/midfielder – 184cm, 79kg

The player: Tucker has played most of his footy off half-back but looks capable of developing into more of a midfielder at the next level. He’s got a bit of speed and good kick, and while he’s largely an outside player at this point, he can look to develop some inside game.

The reason: The Hawks love players with good kicks and Tucker has got that in spades, plus he’s got the ability to develop into a midfielder.

Pick 20 – Gold Coast – Jade Gresham
Midfielder – 177cm, 74kg

The player: Gresham is a quality midfielder who can win the ball and uses it fairly well, and his attitude and work rate are second to none. The question mark over him is his height – at 177cm, he is nearly a full decimetre shorter than the mids being selected at the top end of the draft. Still, he seems like one who is versatile enough to make it.

The reason: After some discipline problems in recent times Gold Coast would love to draft another kid with a great attitude like Gresham. They don’t mind shorter mids, having taken Touk Miller last year.

Pick 21 – North Melbourne – Mitch Hibberd
Half-back/midfielder – 191cm, 85kg

The player: Hibberd is a year older that most draftees having missed much of his own draft year through injury, however, he returned last year and his form as a half-back for Tasmania was really impressive. He looks like he could eventually develop into a tall midfielder, boasting athleticism and a quality kick.

The reason: North have said they’ll go best available at that pick and I think that’s Hibberd. He has excellent potential if he can develop further as a midfielder.

Pick 22 – Hawthorn – Rhys Mathieson
Midfielder – 185cm, 79kg

The player: Mathieson is probably the best pure ball-winner in the draft class but the question marks are over his versatility and endurance. Still, he’s a back-to-back All Australian in the national champs and it would be a surprise to me if he slipped out of the first round.

The reason: The Hawks need some midfielders coming through to replace those they will lose in years to come. Mathieson doesn’t have all the qualities they love but they could back themselves in to make him a Hawthorn player. Similar to current Hawk Jordan Lewis.

Pick 23 – Carlton – Ben McKay
Key forward/key defender – 199cm, 91kg

The player: Twin of Harry McKay, Ben is a versatile key position player who sees himself as a forward but might also develop into a key back. He has relatively limited exposure so far having only been in the system about half a year, but has shown enough to get recruiters excited by his potential.

The reason: Four talls in four picks? I know it seems a little crazy but I think the Blues may do it, as Silvagni has shown a lot of love for picking tall players in the past. Between Weitering, Collins and the two McKays, the Blues would have a great wealth of young tall talent, something they’ve been sorely missing in recent years.