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2015 Japan Cup: Preview and tips
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
28th November, 2015
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BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
28th November, 2015
3
1737 Reads

Here’s my brave attempt to analyse the 2015 Japan Cup, and assess odds accordingly.

This is really a no bet race I feel unless you can secure some value. It’s a hugely difficult race.

Tempo

The speed of the race could be the key to who wins. Unless the German horse ITO sets a fast tempo this really doesn’t look as though it will be a truly run race, and even if that horse does lead it appears as though he won’t be pressured enough to suit those who get back in the race especially from wider barriers.

Historically

Historically this is a great race for the Japanese and no International runner has won since 2006. It’s also a great race for four-year-old Entires with five-year-olds next best.

Over the past 34 years since the inception the four-year-olds have won 16, five-year-olds 9, three-year-olds 6, and six and seven-year-olds only one a piece.

Generally speaking, it is won by a horse in reasonable form that wasn’t beaten too far last start (no further back than 6th).

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Below are the horses I have assessed with the rest probably not in good enough form to warrant serious analysis. I hope I’m not wrong about that!

Key runners

LOVELY DAY (5H): A deserved favourite even though the consensus seems to be that the Japanese horses are down on quality this year. Is that realistic though given this horse ran one second faster than Spielberg did last year in winning the Tenno Sho last start? He has won 6 of his last 8 starts and all of his 2000-2400m races in that time. Prior to that he had only won 3 of his 17 career starts so he can definitely be considered a late bloomer. He had a beautiful run in the race last start from a decent barrier, and he gets the coveted rails barrier today which should assure he gets the run of the race again. He gets on the pace, and a fast or moderately run race doesn’t appear to phase him either way. Very hard to beat.

$4 is about his right odds I feel but maybe I’m being a bit picky. $3.80 might be enough given his suitability to today’s race.

TRIP TO PARIS (4G): Should find the inside barrier an asset and he is in the hands of a trainer who knows how to travel horses and win overseas. His run was excellent in the Caulfield Cup when runner up but he was slightly disappointing in the Melbourne Cup which seemed a more suitable assignment. He was caught wide there though and Flemington was very rails biased during the Spring carnival so maybe it was close to impossible for him to win on the day. Both those races were handicaps though and he probably has to find a bit more at Weight For Age here. The stable is adamant he is in better shape now than he was in Australia and jockey Tommy Berry seems bullish. The plan is to ride him exactly like he was ridden in the Caulfield Cup. If that is the case though he might be worse than midfield in the run and that might be too far back if it is a moderately run race. In his favour is the fact that probably isn’t the strongest Japan Cup ever, and we know the horse can perform well after travel, and coming back in distance. He is the right age but a gelding probably hasn’t won this race since Better Loosen Up in 1990.

Class might test at this trip but you have to respect this stable $7.50

ERUPT (3C) Is a very good Group 1 winning three year old from France who desperately needs a dry track. He should get that and is drawn well enough to take advantage of a race that might be devoid of pace. His only poor run was on a wet track before the Arc in Paris but he put lie to that with a very good run in that race, when only beaten 4 Lengths at the finish. He beat home the classy Free Eagle that day along with Prince Gibraltar and Found. The latter filly and the winner of that race Golden Horn recently Quinellaed the Breeders Cup in America and the three year old form in Europe this year is very strong. History in against this horse winning this race at his age but he is a strongly built horse who has proven he can compete in a big field against quality performers.

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He looks a great winning chance and visually looks the most accomplished horse to me. His win three starts ago at Group 1 level proved he has gears and can sustain a long run. And just maybe being locked away nearer the rails in the Arc just wasn’t his go. $5.50

SOUNDS OF EARTH (4H) Looks a good winning hope for the home team here going on his last start effort behind Lovely Day. I would rate his performance equal to that horse that day with the only real difference being that he got flushed out on the turn and had to make his run quite wide in the straight. I liked his acceleration there but he couldn’t quite maintain it with Lovely Day who got a very economical passage in the straight. Nevertheless he has only won 2 of 13 races and his only run at Tokyo in the Derby was well below par. He missed the Tenno Sho recently (could be a blessing) to be prepared for this. He is probably the Japanese horse with the most improvement in him and is apparently a physiologically more capable horse this preparation.

A moderate pace shouldn’t disadvantage him so if he brings his ‘A’-game to Tokyo he is a major player at value odds. $11

MIKKI QUEEN (3F) Is a class filly with four wins and three placings from 7 career starts. She is an Oaks winner who will definitely run out the 2400m here. Visually though she doesn’t exactly excite me with her acceleration, being more a horse that grinds out a finish. Formlines (taking weight into account) suggest she might be a length or so shy of Lovely Day, and she might need a truly run race. Hard to discount a horse sired by the Champion Deep Impact and it’s possible she only ever does what she has to do to win.

Barrier is a little awkward for her and she might have to go back in the race. $7.50

GOLD SHIP (6H) Is a grey horse and a legend with patrons in Japan. He blotted his copybook at his last run and can be a bit of an enigma. He did fail badly in this race in 2013 also but interesting he comes into the race off a 5 month break this time. His first-up record is absolutely phenomenal (6-2/9) and with 36 days or more between runs he has won 11 of 21 starts. Against that his record here at Tokyo only reads 1/3 and he has only won 2 of 8 at this distance. The barrier does him no favours and the pace of the race might not either. His best hope might be to force the issue from about the 800m by sustaining a long wide run for victory. It wouldn’t be the first time but he has to obviously be at the top of his game to produce something like that.

Age and history appear to be against him but you have to keep in mind he is a six-time Group one winner and no other horse in this race comes close in that regard. $7.50

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ITO (4H): Hails from Germany where he won a Group 1 race at his last start leading all the way on a wet track. He made a one-act affair of that race and beat home Prince Gibraltar in the process. That horse ran a super race in the Arc (5 lengths astern), so his form is strong. Notably too he is 2/2 on left-handed tracks. Our Ivanhowe won the same race in Germany prior to this race last year running 2 second slower on a similar surface. He finished 6 lengths off the pace in the Japan Cup but the winner did win the race by 4 lengths. This horse is different physically and mentally apparently. Not as relaxed, races on the pace, probably has more potential is my take going on what I’ve read. A lot is going to depend on how he has coped with the travel, the big crowd prior to the race and how well he settles in the run. He could dictate the race but at least we know he is one horse that should not be affected by the tempo of the race. My main concern with him is his ability on a dry surface and racing in this large a field. He is the right age and gender though.

$10 chance for mine but most markets have him at far better odds than that.

SHONAN PANDORA (4M): Looks capable of winning this race looking at her run in the Tenno Sho when finishing off well from a rearward position. She drew poorly in that race though and unfortunately, has done so again. She is yet to race beyond 2200m but appears to be looking for this trip. She is another daughter of Deep Impact which almost certainly means she will appreciate it. The problem is she probably has to go back further than midfield in a race that doesn’t look as though it will be run to suit.

She may start at around a $15 quote. If luck goes her way she can win, but hard to see everything falling into place. $12.

NIGHTFLOWER (3F): Is an all Irish bred, German trained filly trained by PeterShiergen (of Danedream fame). She easily beat home Ito last start, yet prior to that had fallen prey to Prince Gibraltar which makes little sense in relation to that formline, given Ito easily accounted for PG last start. She comes into this race with confidence but off a two-month break which is yet to suggest a positive in her career stats. She has won on dry ground and can certainly run the distance. The biggest problem for her could be her barrier and the fact that she is probably going to midfield or worse in the run. When beaten by PG she was closer to the lead then the day she beat home Ito, so perhaps her best form is when given time to settle?

I can’t see that being a positive here and it looks a tough gig from a historical perspective for an International three-year-old filly to win a Japan Cup(especially from a wide barrier). The same could have been said before Danedream won the Arc.

Common sense tells you that LOVELY DAY is the one they all have to beat, but he is about his right price.

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My pick would be ERUPT who is perhaps a bit of value, though I’m taking historical liberties in selecting him. The others that appeal as possible overs are A TRIP TO PARIS and ITO, who is possibly the best value horse in the race.

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