With just a month left in the 2015 NFL regular season every match matters, whether it is for playoff qualification and seeding or draft order.
Teams that looked destined for a three seed are now sitting in pole position for a one seed. On the other side of the coin, the Cleveland Browns lost provisional sole possession of the number one overall draft pick by defeating the 49ers and moving to 3-10.
One team that helped the New England Patriots move back into first position in the AFC standings was the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Not only did the Steelers defeat the Cincinnati Bengals but they injured quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton suffered a fracture in his hand and has been ruled out for at least one week, with some reports suggesting he could be out for the remainder of the campaign.
The Bengals face the 49ers next week so should be right without Dalton but if he does not return for the Monday Night Football clash with Denver in two weeks’ time the Bengals will struggle to secure a first-round bye.
Sitting at 8-5, the Steelers could very well be a team the Bengals face in the playoffs.
The Steelers are a curious team. Their defence has struggled for much of the season while their offence has thrived behind quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.
But on Monday it was the defence that got the job done against Cincinnati while the offence struggled. Big Ben still threw for 282 yards but his team was restricted to just two short-yardage touchdowns while being forced to kick four field goals.
If the Steelers were able to remain fully healthy they could possess the best offence in the league. A healthy Roethlisberger airing the ball out to his speedy receivers, who can burn just about any defender, and a healthy Le’Veon Bell picking up yards on the ground as one of the most efficient running backs in the game, is a deadly combination.
Defenders would have no idea whom to defend.
Crash the box to stop the run and you risk exposing the cornerbacks to one-on-one situations with Brown and Bryant streaking down the field. Stay deep and you allow running lanes to open up for Bell.
What’s more, if the Steelers are throwing it and the safeties are marking Brown and Bryant, Heath Miller is running up the seams, a player very few linebackers are able to defend.
It doesn’t really matter how bad the defence is if Roethlisberger is throwing for 450 yards and Bell is running for 150 yards each week. Very few opposition offences would be able to match that sort of production.
Unfortunately it was not to be for the Steelers. Bell tore his MCL in Week 8 and was ruled out for the season. DeAngelo Williams has done a respectable job since taking over as the number one runner but he is 32 and past his prime.
Roethlisberger has missed four games this season and was forced to enter a fifth game after Landry Jones went down with an injury. This is the ninth year of his 12-year career that Roethlisberger has missed at least one game due to injury.
Despite the injuries, the Steelers still possess the third best offence in the league, per Football Outsiders. Roethlisberger has thrown for more than 300 yards in six of his nine starts, while Antonio Brown is ranked as the best wide receiver in the league.
Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones is ranked a disappointing 20th in that same list. It is not unfair to suggest that Jones should be in the top five, alongside AJ Green and the evergreen Larry Fitzgerald.
Curiously, Jones is the NFL’s leading receiver, with 1426 yards on 109 receptions. This suggests that despite Jones’ production, according to the advanced stats he could actually do more.
There is a reason that Jones is ranked so low, however. Football Outsiders’s rankings are largely based on efficiency, hence why Larry Fitzgerald in his new role as a slot receiver is ranked so high. Not only is Fitzgerald facing more single-coverage situations but he is also matching up against weaker cornerbacks. Thus, he has a greater opportunity to make the most of the opportunities he receives.
Jones, on the other hand, is the Falcons’ number one receiver and virtually their only receiver. He faces double coverage almost every time he is on the field. Despite this, quarterback Matt Ryan tries to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. That is why Jones is ranked so low; there are a lot of balls that are thrown in his direction that would never be thrown on most normal teams. When he doesn’t catch them, his efficiency rating is hampered.
Aside from Jones and number one cornerback Desmond Trufant, season 2015 has been an absolute disaster for Atlanta. The team started 5-0 and has proceeded to go 1-7 in the last eight games. They were walloped 38-0 by the Panthers on Monday, Ryan has struggled significantly, and the defence has not met expectations.
Over the past two seasons the biggest problem for the defence was an inability to pressure the quarterback. They have not fared any better this season. Their sack rate of three per cent is ranked equal last in the league. The league average is 5.9 per cent, Denver is ranked first with 8.9 per cent.
The Falcons have recorded just 15 sacks through 13 games, tied for last with the Giants, who still have a game to play this weekend.
The one bright spot on defence is Trufant. He has managed to ensure that the Falcons are ranked fourth in the league when defending number one receivers. They are ranked 29th when defending the number two receiver.
The Falcons entered the season with plenty of promise. New head coach Dan Quinn was meant to usher in a new era after Mike Smith’s seven years in charge. For five weeks this new era seemed to be quite bright but a combination of injuries, bad luck and poor performance has cruelled this team.
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