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Ellerslie Railway Stakes 2016

Roar Guru
30th December, 2015
1

Race 9 (15.37 AEDT) at Ellerslie (New Zealand) on Friday (New Years day) is the Group 1 Railway Stakes over a distance of 1200m.

It has been a major sprint on the New Zealand racing calendar since it’s inception in 1986, and was made a set weights and penalties race (rather than a handicap) in 2009.

Oddly since that change, two despised outsiders have won at odds of 104-1 (Jacowils 2009) and 86-1 (Miss Raggedy Ann 2011). Two Australian Sprinters have also managed to win in that period, namely Gold Trail (2010) and Atomic Force (2012), hardly our best at the time, but still accomplished performers. It’s also notable that a filly (1) or mare (7) has won eight of the past thirteen editions, and three of the past six since the weight conditions of the race were changed.

None of the past three female winners has carried more than 54kg though, which casts a bit of doubt on the best performed mare this year, which is last year’s winner In Style (56kg), but perhaps gives hope to the much longer priced Trepidation (53kg).

The horse they all have to beat this year is the top-weight Sacred Star who wasn’t seen at his best in Brisbane during the winter when he sustained a minor injury. Despite that he still managed a 3.5 length defeat in the Doomben 10,000, and was beaten only 3 lengths in the Stradbroke handicap thereafter.

Both those runs suggest he is good enough to win this, even with his 59kg topweight, conceding at least 3kg to the the rest of the field. His run in the 2014 Stradbroke Handicap was probably the run of the race, and had he been ridden more positively that day he may well have won.

He is a very accomplished first up performer which he proved at roughly the same time last year when winning the Telegraph Handicap at Trentham with 57kg.

He was absolutely devastating winning that race by 4 lengths in a time of 1.07.01 and while he meets quite a few out of that race slightly worse at the weights in this (Natuzzi, In Style, Whosyourmaster Durham Town, Trepidation) there is no way in the world that a couple of kilos can compensate for the hiding he gave all of them.

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There looks to be enough speed in the race to suit him with stablemate Allez Eagle, Statham and the mare In Style likely to set a reasonable tempo up front, with Ryan Mark not too far behind them. If emergency Passing Shot gains a start he will add more speed to the race up front.

The only poor first up runs put in by Sacred Star have been when he has resumed in the Spring off a Winter campaign and that isn’t the case here. It does seem a case of whatever beats him will win if the track is reasonably dry.

The horse with the best chance of doing that appears to be Ryan Mark. Unfortunately he is an injury prone galloper but if he can repeat his run in the Makfi Challenge back in late August he will almost certainly win this with 56kg.

That day the 1400m proved a shade too far for him, but had he not been caught wide, up near the speed, on a very hot pace, he may have actually won the race.

Turn Me Loose was two lengths in arrears of him which speaks volumes for how good a run it was, and how good a horse he can be. He has won once and placed twice since then, and there were decent explanations for both those defeats. 1200m appears to be his best distance (5-3/10) and he should get a very economical passage from an inside draw, unlike in three of his past four starts when he has had to overcome wide runs from awkward barriers.

The biggest thing in his favour might actually be the engagement of Opie Bosson, probably NZ’s best jockey who hasn’t ridden the horse in his past nine starts. Prior to that he had had only three rides aboard, for three wins and he could very well make it 4/4 in this race given he looks quite well in at the weights with 56kg.

A dead track would probably suit him better than a firm one as reportedly didn’t stretch out last start in the straight. The track surface could be the difference between a win and a loss here.

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Allez Eagle looks a decent hope but he isn’t as well weighted as Ryan Mark despite beating him at 1400m three starts ago, by half a length, in receipt of 1.5kg. They both carry the same weight here and the latter horse is probably better suited at 1200m.

That said Allez Eagle will run this distance out strongly, whereas his defeat at 1600m last start suggested he can’t quite sustain his best form at a mile. If he can gain a decent margin lead early in this race he might be very hard to beat but that looks a little unlikely.

Natuzzi looks to be another horse who can win at the weights but he is a bit of an enigma. He was a winner last start second up from a spell, but his third up statistics (0-0-0/4), aren’t too encouraging and he might need a very hot pace up front to show what he is made of.

He was seven lengths off Sacred Star in the Telegraph last year at level weights, but then improved at Weight For Age the subsequent start to be only beaten 1.3 lengths by the same horse. A 3kg weight advantage here off a 4kg weight drop last start gives him his chance, but he needs to step up to a new level here (0-3/6 Group 1 races) as a seven year old.

In Style as mentioned above won this race last year (with 54kg) and comes to defend her title here off a recent trial over 1000m in reasonably good time (58.88 secs). All her wins have been in the Ellerslie direction (right handed) so perhaps her two defeats in Melbourne recently (when transferred to Mike Maroney stable) were better results than first appears.

The most interesting statistic on her resume is a fairly obscure one of five wins from six from barriers 7 to 9, and she has drawn barrier 8 for this race, likely to come in one spot if the emergencies don’t gain a start. This represents a harder task for her than last year with her 56kg, but lightning has a habit of striking twice, and the record of female horses in this race is probably unsurpassed in any Group race (for all sexes) in Australasia.

She has a narrow win over Ryan Mark in receipt of 1.5kg, and if she takes a sit behind the likely two leaders she could prevail. If she vies for the lead though it might be too much of a task with other speed in the race.

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The weight conditions seem to be against the rest of the field winning. The promising Passing Shot could be a surprise packet on a firmish track, but Opie Bosson normally rides him and appears to have opted for Ryan Mark instead.

Summing up my head tells me Sacred Star is the likely winner, but my heart is definitely with Ryan Mark. The record of females in this race does suggest In Style could run well at a double figure price.

Given a Good or Dead surface (likely) I might actually Trifecta this trio. Sacred Star and Ryan Mark are around the price they should be ($3.60 and $5 respectively), but In Style is well over the odds at $16. An Each Way bet on her at those odds may well be the best betting approach outside of multiples.

1. Sacred Star
2. Ryan Mark
3. In Style

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