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Changing of the Super Rugby seasons: New Zealand

4th January, 2016
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Hurricanes's Matt Proctor s. (AAP/NZN Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)
Roar Guru
4th January, 2016
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2715 Reads

Late last year, I looked at the Australian conference in the new Super Rugby format, going through the squads of each team and analysing how everyone might fare now that there are more teams and different match-ups.

Not to shy away from a challenge, nor to exclude readers of The Roar who would rather hear about their own nation, I will continue the analysis by breaking down the New Zealand conference.

My intention is to provide the facts and then add my two cents about the respective teams and the season.

Blues
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: 14th

Projected finish in New Zealand conference: fifth

Players in: Quentin MacDonald (Chiefs), Hoani Matenga (Wellington), Gerard Tuioti-Mariner (North Harbour), Tanerau Latimer (Toshiba Brave Lupus), Kara Pryor (Northland), Billy Guyton (Crusaders), Sam Nock (Northland), Reiko Ioane (Auckland), Rene Ranger (Montpellier), Male Sa’u (Yamaha Jubilo), Matt Duffie (NRL: Melbourne Storm)

Players out: Greg Pleasants-Tate (Highlanders wider training squad), Angus Ta’avao (Waratahs), Tony Woodcock (retired), Keven Mealamu (retired), William Lloyd (Auckland), Culum Retallick (Rebels), Hayden Triggs (Leinster), Chris Vui (North Harbour), Luke Braid (Bordeaux), Brendon O’Connor (Leicester Tigers), Airi Hunt (Auckland), Jamie Booth (Manawatu), Jimmy Cowan (Tasman), Jamison Gibson-Park (Hurricanes), Daniel Bowden (Bath), Simon Hickey (Bordeaux), Pita Ahki (Hurricanes), Hamish Northcott (Manawatu), Francis Saili (Munster), Matt Vaega (North Harbour), Frank Halai (London Wasps), Charles Piutau (London Wasps)

Extended playing squad: Afa Fa’atau, Joe Edwards, TJ Faiane, Piers Francis, Michael Little, Scott Scrafton, Jordan Trainor, Namatahi Waa

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The Auckland faithful are still trying to figure out what went wrong for the Blues in 2015. Blessed with a mix of youth and experience, the attack-based Blues could out-run and bump off most defences when given the ball and a bit of space, but for whatever reason they just couldn’t click.

Admittedly, someone has to lose and in a pool with four other New Zealand teams, it’s never going to be easy no matter who you are. It doesn’t get easier with Angus Ta’avao heading to the Waratahs and stalwarts Tony Woodcock and Keven Mealamu – centurions of both Test and Super Rugby – retiring.

The list of quality players leaving is too long to repeat, so I’ll ask to revisit the list above to reiterate just how depleted the stocks were for the Blues before signing new players.

The experience of Tanerau Latimer, Male Sau and Rene Ranger will be invaluable, all of whom should leave a mark on opposition defences. The arrival of younger, less experienced talent – such as Reiko Ioane and Matt Duffie – should also prove helpful, but too much attention has been paid to beefing up the outside back stocks.

Injuries to the forward pack will prove very costly in a squad where the starting team differs greatly from the bench and rest of squad.

The biggest change up has been All Black great Tana Umaga taking over from another legend, John Kirwan. What experience and tactics Umaga can bring to this team will make or break, but I for one am keen to see what he can do.

Expect improvement, but no finals yet for the Blues.

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Potential XV for opening game
1. Charlie Faumuina
2. James Parsons
3. Ofa Tu’ungafasi
4. Steven Luatua
5. Patrick Tuipulotu
6. Akira Ioane
7. Tanerau Latimer
8. Jerome Kaino
9. Billy Guyton
10. Ihaia West
11. Reiko Ioane
12. George Moala
13. Rene Ranger
14. Ben Lam
15. Lolagi Visinia

Chiefs
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: fifth

Projected finish in New Zealand conference: first

Players in: Nepo Laulala (Crusaders), Atunaisa Moli (Waikato), Nathan Harris (return from injury), Dominic Bird (Crusaders), Mitchell Karpik (Auckland), Tom Sanders (Canterbury), Taleni Seu (Auckland), Tawera Kerr-Barlow (return from injury), Glen Fisiiahi (NRL: New Zealand Warriors), Toni Pulu (wider training squad), Chase Tiatia (Bay of Plenty), Sam McNicol (Hurricanes)

Players out: Jarrod Firth (Counties Manukau), Jamie Mackintosh (Southland), Ben Tameifuna (Racing 92), Quentin MacDonald (Blues), Michael Fitzgerald (Leicester Tigers), Matt Symons (London Irish), Mitchell Crosswell (Taranaki), Ross Filipo (Racing 92), Liam Messam (Toshiba Brave Lupus/7’s), Sean Polwart (Auckland), Liam Squire (Highlanders), Hosea Gear (Clermont), Bryce Heem (Worcester Warriors), Tom Marshall (Gloucester), Tim Nanai-Williams (Ricoh Black Rams), Marty McKenzie (Crusaders)

Extended playing squad: Stephen Donald, Siegfried Fisiihoi, Rhys Marshall, Shaun Stevenson, James Tucker, Latu Vaeno, Sam Vaka

Again, the Chiefs look like the real deal and will be pushing for a finals berth amidst the toughest conference in the competition.

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It’s easy to look at their mountainous list of players leaving and wonder how they could field a team, but a lot of those players are being replaced by some equally exciting talent, or just weren’t in the Chiefs’ best 23 anyway.

The biggest losses are versatile backs Tim Nanai-Williams and Marty McKenzie, who combined can each cover nearly the whole backline. The other setback is that Liam Messam, Augustine Pulu and Sonny Bill Williams are all involved in Sevens program this year, so it’ll be telling how much of their respective seasons they will play at the Chiefs (in Messam’s case I don’t think he’ll play at all).

Nepo Laulala and Dominic Bird have been brought across from the Crusaders, two superb players to have in their ranks, and with Taleni Seu, Chase Tiatia and Tom Sanders plucked from the ITM Cup, depth and development won’t be a problem for Dave Rennie’s men.

Here’s hoping Aaron Cruden can remain injury-free this year. If he can, I’d back the Chiefs to topple near anything in their path.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Nepo Laulala
2. Hikawera Elliot
3. Pauliasi Manu
4. Dominic Bird
5. Brodie Retallick
6. Taleni Seu
7. Sam Cane
8. Michael Leitch
9. Tawera Kerr-Barlow
10. Aaron Cruden
11. James Lowe
12. Charlie Ngatai
13. Seta Tamanivalu
14. Chase Tiatia
15. Damian McKenzie

Crusaders
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: seventh

Projected finish in New Zealand conference: fourth

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Players in: Michael Alaalatoa (Waratahs), Tim Boys (Southland), Peter Samu (Tasman), Marty McKenzie (Chiefs), Richie Mo’unga (wider training squad), Ben Volavola (Waratahs), Sean Wainui (Taranaki), Sione Fifita (Counties Manukau), Mitchell Hunt (Auckland)

Players out: Nepo Laulala (Chiefs), Dominic Bird (Chiefs), Richie McCaw (retired), Luke Whitelock (Highlanders), Billy Guyton (Blues), Willi Heinz (Gloucester), Dan Carter (Racing 92), Colin Slade (Pau), Tom Taylor (Toulon), Nathaniel Apa (Canterbury), Nafi Tuitavake (North Harbour)

Extended playing squad: Jed Brown, Israel Dagg, Mitchell Dunshea, Leon Fukofuka, Jack Goodhue, Tim Perry

Did you read the ‘players out’ section? What else can I say about this team?

No Richie McCaw? No Dan Carter? Is this even the Crusaders?!

Fear not Crusaders supporters, you’re not in trouble yet. Sure you’re losing six All Blacks, but those players couldn’t last forever, and Todd Blackadder is building for the future with a host of great ITM Cup players as well as a replenished stock of fly-halves following the mass exodus of anyone that’s ever worn the 10 jersey.

While I’m not expecting an appearance in the grand final, the Crusaders are always there or thereabouts come the end of the season. With a Test-capped tight five, inspirational skipper Kieran Read still leading the pack, and a dangerously quick and over-sized backline, there’s nothing too much for this team to fear.

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Potential XV for opening game
1. Wyatt Crockett
2. Codie Taylor
3. Owen Franks
4. Luke Romano
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jordan Taufua
7. Matt Todd
8. Kieran Read
9. Andy Ellis
10. Ben Volavola
11. Nemani Nadolo
12. Ryan Crotty
13. Robbie Fruean
14. David Havili
15. Marty McKenzie

Highlanders
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: fourth

Projected finish in New Zealand conference: third

Players in: Siua Halanukonuka (Tasman), Luke Whitelock (Crusaders), Liam Squire (Chiefs), Matt Faddes (Otago), Rob Thompson (Canterbury)

Players out: Ma’afu Fia (Ospreys), Kane Hames (Tasman), Pingi Tala’apitaga (Bay of Plenty), Joe Latta (Gloucester), John Hardie (Edinburgh), Nasi Manu (Edinburgh), Scott Eade (Southland), Shaun Treeby (Wellington), Trent Renata (Tasman), Kurt Baker (Taranaki)

Extended playing squad: Jackson Hemopo, Craig Millar, Greg Pleasants-Tate, Fumiaki Tanaka, Sio Tomkinson, Teihorangi Walden

The Highlanders have the greatest challenge of all: no one likes a team winning consecutive Super Rugby titles, so they’ll be marked men all tournament. The good news for their supporters is that this doesn’t faze Jamie Joseph or his incredible squad.

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With a forward pack featuring no All Blacks, it’s hard to imagine how they could be so dominant, but the way in which this team worked together shows you don’t need to be a household name to cause damage. This also helped them retain the bulk of their players, making a back-to-back finals appearance a strong possibility.

The biggest losses are Nasi Manu and Shaun Treeby. This isn’t to discredit the other players – Kane Hames and John Hardie, in particular, were fantastic for the Highlanders – but losing an experienced co-captain in Manu and a hard-working, behind-the-scenes player like Treeby will be a lot harder to replace than just whacking in two new players.

Fortunately, the Highlanders have made smart transfers over the off-season. Expect to see a hotly contested battle for the backrow spots – when you consider the players coming in, the ones listed below and the likes of Gareth Evans, James Lentjes and Dan Pryor still to be utilised, the options are nearly limitless.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Brendon Edmonds
2. Liam Coltman
3. Josh Hohneck
4. Alex Ainley
5. Mark Reddish
6. Elliot Dixon
7. Shane Christie
8. Liam Squire
9. Aaron Smith
10. Lima Sopoaga
11. Patrick Osborne
12. Jason Emery
13. Malakai Fekitoa
14. Waisake Naholo
15. Ben Smith

Hurricanes
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: first

Projected finish in New Zealand conference: second

Players in: Loni Uhila (Waikato), Hugh Renton (wider training squad), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Taranaki), Pita Ahki (Blues), Ngani Laumape (NRL: New Zealand Warriors)

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Players out: Tolu Fahamokioa (Hawke’s Bay), Ben Franks (London Irish), John Schwalger (Wellington), Brayden Mitchell (Southland), Jeremy Thrush (Gloucester), Adam Hill (Wellington), Chris Smylie (Benetton Treviso), Frae Wilson (Wellington), Rey Lee-Lo (Cardiff Blues), Ma’a Nonu (Toulon), Conrad Smith (Pau), Sam McNicol (Chiefs)

Extended playing squad: Leni Apisai, Michael Fatialofa, Jamison Gibson-Park, Willis Halaholo, Tony Lamborn, Hisa Sasagi, TJ Va’a

The Hurricanes have a lot to prove. After finishing top of the table in 2015, they lost to the Highlanders in a spectacular grand final, which featured the two best and most consistent teams of the competition. However, unlike the Highlanders, the Canes have seen a host of players leave their squad.

All Blacks Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith are all gone, with the centre combination the most damaging. On top of their departure, heir to the throne Rey Lee-Lo, who spent a fair amount of time warming the bench for these two All Black greats, is also heading overseas, so the backline combinations are sure to get a mix-up.

Less attention has been paid to the fact that both Chris Smylie and Frae Wilson are departing – skilled scrumhalves who could slot into other Super Rugby teams as a starting 9.

These losses have been addressed, but it’s still a shame to see such talent leave.

A few big transfers aside, this team still looks strong, dominant and fast in the forward pack, and the tried-and-tested halves combination has a range of powerful and agile outside backs to link up with.

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Look out for Nehe Milner-Skudder to continue improving, as well as a great contest between James Marshall, Jason Woodward and Cory Jane for a spot in the backline. You know you’ve got talent when some of those names have to miss out.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Reggies Goodes
2. Dane Coles
3. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen
4. Mark Abbott
5. James Broadhurst
6. Vaea Fifita
7. Ardie Savea
8. Victor Vito
9. TJ Perenara
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Julian Savea
12. Willis Halaholo
13. Matt Proctor
14. Nehe Milner-Skudder
15. James Marshall

Be sure to keep posted for the two African conferences to follow.

Like always, I welcome all comments and feedback on which teams you like the look of, and whom you’d pick in your preferred teams.

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