Although this is surely one of the toughest race meetings in the country to analyse, Magic Millions Day always captures the imagination of the punting public in the off carnival summer months.

One of the bigger success stories of Australian racing in the past three decades, the prizemoney makes the mind boggle regardless of the quality of horse on show. Having said that, the standard is normally quite good and this year is no exception.

There was quite a lot of rain earlier in the week which threatened to spoil the party, but the weather has improved a great deal and little or no further rain is forecast. I’m anticipating a surface with just enough give to make if perfect for all participants.

Below is my assessment of the better chances on the day, but I stress that there are plenty of others who will almost certainly play a part in the outcome of some races.

Race 1 Magic Millions Maiden Plate 1200m
The ideally drawn Snowdon stable runner Wolf Cry looks to be the one to beat. He comes off a handy trial second to recent impressive first up winner Flippant (one of the favourites in the 3yo MM). He has form around Haptic who was Group 3 placed behind Japonisme in the San Domenico Stakes (Golden Slipper winner Vancouver was third) and his formlines appear to be a cut above most of these. Unfortunately his price indicates that at around the $2.50 mark.

Who’s A Star comes off a placing in an 1100m race at Hawkesbury, similar to last year’s winner Elle Lou. He was on debut that day and the winner Lucky Fish is pretty smart.

He was just plain in a trial recently but the Blinkers go on for this which could spark the necessary improvement for him to win.

The Chris Waller-trained Wutai Mountain gets a Tongue Tie added, and Giuliani has it’s first run for Tony Gollan (formerly Gai Waterhouse). He has been Gelded and had a tongue tie added for this so we should expect improvement from him although his last run wasn’t as bad as it might look on paper. Tye Angland rode Who’s A Star on debut but appears to have elected for him which could be a good lead.

If there was to be an upset it might be provided by Tango Rock from the Melbourne stable of Mick Kent. He is a strong three year old who can only improve off his debut run at Sale when he ran home well late, indicating more distance would be preferable.

Naranja was a little unlucky first up and has decent enough formlines to make an impact here. Many, many other hopes including some good local talent (Havasay, Sagatona, Ambitious Blonde to name a few).

Bet suggestion
Win Bet – Wolf Cry should go close but I wouldn’t be keen to take less than $2.50
Each Way value- Tango Rock and Giuliani

Race 2 Country Cup 1200m
It could be a battle of the wars here! War Jet looks the goods off a 7.5L barrier trial win at Quenbeayan recently. Since the Blinkers went on in a new stable he has won five of nine races and he beat recent Goulburn cup winner Just A Blur on two separate occasions last preparation, which is good form for a race like this.

He is yet to win first up, but the easy trial win looks to have set the scene this time around, and he handles all types of track conditions. He has drawn well and likes to lead, but doesn’t want to get caught in a speed battle with the very fast Burleigh Bullet.

Star Wars was not entitled to win first up at Hawkesbury recently when he was tailed off on what seemed to be a moderate speed. He won quite easily though and the formlines out of the race are reasonably strong. He is also a winner at 1400m here. Beyond 1400m he is 0-2/13 so it seems he is a pure sprinter, and the drop back in distance 100m from his last start might not be a hindrance.

An anticipated fast tempo should suit a backmarker like him.

Three Sheets is a Blackbooker of mine and has the form to win this coming off a gutsy second last week behind Pirandello at Doomben. The time was very fast and he was simply run off his feet by the winner. He has won backing up a week between runs in the past but my concern is his ability at 1200m. If he copes with that, he is the one to beat.

Bet suggestion
Win Bet – Star Wars is probably the value horse at $7 in early markets, but the three mentioned could fill a nice Trifecta.

Race 3 Magic Millions QTIS Plate
This looks to be very much a benefit race for the ultra popular and high-class multiple Group 1 winner Buffering, who interestingly has never started at this track, or won beyond 1200m. Both those statistics should be put to rest here, because he should be carrying more like 71kg, not the 61kg he has been allocated. He has been runner up in two Stradbroke handicaps at 1400m, so the 1300m distance is no real concern.

Anymore is the big improver of late and did win the Maiden race at this meeting in 2014. He has some hope of running a placing here on his current excellent form. Siegfried and Mr Jetset are yet to miss a place in all of their runs at this track so are worth putting in multiples.

Bet suggestion
The only two other horses with open class form in this race (besides Buffering) are Gundy Star and Steel Zip, so my suggestion would be to take both of those in a Trifecta to run second and third to the Queensland champ.

Race 4 Fillies and Mares Handicap 1300m
An intriguing all females race with a couple of my favourite mares engaged. One is Private Secretary who might start favourite.

She is a prolific winning mare who is trained at Warwick Farm in Sydney. She is very good fresh with six of her seven wins either first or second up, and she is yet to win any race with two weeks or less between runs.

She resumed on December 12 at Randwick and to my mind was unlucky not to win, finishing nearer the inside rail from a good barrier. All the placegetters finished wide out on the track and she was beaten less than two lengths. Drawn perfectly for this, she handles all track conditions.

Elle Lou gets a run as first emergency with the scratching of Cradle Me and represents good value in the race. She will get a very similar surface to the one that saw a devastating win from her in the Maiden race this day last year.

Her run first up was excellent behind I Am Zelady and she meets that mare 3kg better for it. Second up she was disappointing, but not for the first time under those circumstances. She is in astute hands and could be a major player here.

I Am Zelady is very capable and likes to race on the pace, while Queen Of Kariba is very partial to wet tracks and comes out of a strong form race behind Flippant. Miss Cover Girl looks very well weighted if she can return to her best. She finished alongside Peace Force last October in Sydney and meets that mare 4.5kg better

Tina Melina is an in-form Brisbane mare who is 2/2 since the blinkers were applied. A distance of 1300m is a slight query for her but the inside barrier should make her competitive in this race.

Bet suggestion
Win – Private Secretary
Each Way Value – Elle Lou

Race 5 Magic Millions (stayers) Cup 1800m
In a very hard race it’s impossible to ignore the 3/3 track and distance record of in-form mare Tinto, who trotted in this race last year with virtually the same weight.

Given she comes off possibly a career best run two starts ago when runner up in the Group 3 Villiers, and a preparatory win last start at this track, she looks a wonderful chance to go back to back. Damien Browne should ride her economically from her inside draw.

Centre Pivot was very impressive winning at Doomben last start when the Blinkers went back on. In fact he was never, ever going to lose that race.

The negative for him might be a 3kg weight hike, and Worthy Cause can reverse the result here meeting him 2.5kg better with a run under his belt off a decent Melbourne Spring campaign. He actually beat home Turn Me Loose at Flemington and that horse ended up the winner of a Group 1 race (Emirates).

He is only a small horse so any weight relief will assist him, as will some give in the surface. Just not sure 1800m is his best distance, a trip that could be stretching his stamina a little too far.

Jumbo Prince has Winkers On first time here and does meet Tinto 1.5kg better for a 1.2L defeat last time. He looks well weighted to run a placing.

Glendara could be a surprise packet looking at his consistency and form around Chillin’ With Dylan. That horse was competitive with Worthy Cause at level weights last Winter and Worthy Cause concedes Glendara 3.5kg in this race.

Bet suggestion
Win – Tinto
Each Way value – Glendara

Race 6 Magic Millions Cup 1400m
Lucky Hussler is a dual Group 1 winner who has had thirteen starts for trainer Darren Weir. In that time he has won four races, and hasn’t finished further back than three lengths.

His form tapered off surprisingly at the tail of his Spring campaign, but he does generally thrive fresh and will probably win this if anywhere near his best. That said it’s never easy to win at 1400m off a decent break whatever the circumstances. In his favour is that he should probably be conceding more weight to the rest of the field.

Bachman is the horse on the up with two wins from two since being gelded. Trainer Gerald Ryan has come to the conclusion that he is a sprinter, and not a miler, middle distance type of horse, so the 1400m should be perfect for him in this.

He looks quite well weighted given he meets one of his opposition Open Book 3.5kg better for beating him home nearly two lengths in Sydney two starts back when resuming. He should be very competitive here despite having drawn off the track.

Fontelina is Group 1 placed at this distance, and is back in form for a new stable. He wasn’t far behind Lucky Hussler in the All Aged Stakes last Autumn at Randwick and is weighted to beat that horse with 3.5kg less. A wide barrier could be his nemesis, but he is fit and $15 odds are adequate compensation.

Aussies Love Sport should improve off a poor last start effort simply because he is 0/11 first and second up. He improved immensely to win third up last preparation, and any give in the track should suit.

Both Murt The Flirt and Illustrious Lad ran nice races last start at Wyong behind Flippant but they still have to prove themselves at 1400m. They deserve consideration in multiples.

Bet suggestion
Win – Bachman
Each Way value – Fontelina

Race 7 3yo Guineas 1400m
There seems to be a lack of 1400m form in this race and I’m never too keen to back runners at that distance who are lacking in fitness. That makes the race an interesting case study. Wide barriers for the favoured runners make the race even more tricky.

Egyptian Symbol looks the one to beat with good fitness levels and a decent barrier. She seems to be looking for the 1400m, and although well beaten by Flippant at Wyong, she didn’t handle the turn well and finished the race off nicely. She was then unluckily beaten at this track, again finishing off well at 1300m.

She is a daughter of Former high-class mare Our Egytpian Raine who was duel Group 1 placed in the Doomben 10000 and All Aged Stakes (1400m). She also finished less than a length behind when fourth in an Emirates Stakes over 1600m. That indicates 1400m should be no problem for this filly. The best may be yet to come from her and trainer Bjorn Baker is one of the best in the country at present.

Mahuta has drawn off the track but is yet to win a race below 1400m (a positive), and is yet to be beaten with Blinkers On (4/4).

The Chris Waller trained Sir Bacchus is a Blackbooker of mine, and has been a big improver of late. He should run the 1400m right out on his breeding, being a son of the decent mare Bacchanal Woman. She won a few races at 1400m and above and had a good turn of foot at those trips.

Flippant was ultra impressive first up at Wyong over 1200m and should be competitive again. The wide barrier and extra distance are of some concern though.

Sagaronne was a disappointment during the Melbourne Spring, but her second to Press Statement during the Winter shouldn’t go unnoticed. Her win two starts prior at this track was something to behold from a wide barrier, and she has drawn well again here. $26+ is overs.

Bet suggestion
Win – Egyptian Symbol
Each Way value – Sir Bacchus and Sagaronne.

Race 8 2yo Magic Millions classic
It’s impossible to go past the hot favourite Capitalist who just looks a class above this field. He is the only horse in my Times Blackbook and that was for the stupendous effort he put in last start at Wyong, when he could have won a lot easier.

Niccolance, a newly acquitted stablemate was runner up in that race, and might be the only real danger with an extra 100m in his favour. Zelady’s Night Out and Nikitas are the only horses in the race to win at 1200m but the latter has drawn much better.

Bet suggestion
Box a trifecta with the four mentioned or single them out with Capitalist to win outright.

Race 9 Magic Millions Sprint 1100m
There is speed to burn in this race, so I’ve gone looking for something that might finis hard from off the pace. Le Cordon Bleu fits the bill, and although coming back in distance 100m here, he has won at the trip, and the Blinkers go on for the shrewd Hawkes stable. He drops 3kg off a last start third to a very smart horse called Start Wondering at Rosehill, and wouldn’t need to improve too much to win off that effort.

King’s Troop has some very good three year old form and can win if he takes a sit off the pace. A couple of gear changes might hold him in good stead, as might a drier track.

Husson Eagle should get a fantastic run in the race from a good barrier and meets King’s Troop 4kg better for beating him home last start. He normally improves third up, but the downside is he is yet to win a race with less than 29 days between runs. Maybe the trip up North will serve to freshen him up, so he should be competive here.

Weinholt is another who should be suited by a fast pace and the drop back to 1100m. A dryish track would be in his favour.

Wild Rain is a quality mare who always gives a good account from up on the pace, and she has drawn ideally.

Bet suggestion
Win – Le Cordon Bleu
Each Way value- Weinholt

Summing up
This is a day of racing to look forward to given the depth of chances in most of the races. Capitalist and Buffering are almost over the line propositions but I want my best bets to be better value than that.

Private Secretary (Race 4), Tinto (Race 5) and Bachman (Race 6) are hard to fault, while Star Wars looks a pretty sound bet at decent odds (Race 2).

Those who like to chance their arm at even better odds might like to invest on Tango Fire (Race 1) Elle Lou (Race 4) , and Le Cordon Bleu in the last (Race 9). Sagaronne could also spring a major surprise at good odds in the three year old Guineas (race 7).