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Western Sydney are last-start losers and Sydney FC last-start winners, but the Wanderers are in better shape to win the latest edition of the Sydney derby, at Pirtek Stadium on Saturday.
For a start, you can use the strength of schedule argument to rule out those most recent results as factors in trying to determine which of the two teams is best placed to succeed in the most bitter A-League rivalry of them all.
The Wanderers lost 3-2 away to Melbourne City in a game that lived right up to its potential. It was a pulsating clash in which a 2-0 lead to City still never allowed the home side to feel safe.
The boys from western Sydney fought back to 2-2 before the inevitable dose of refereeing drama that seems so commonplace in the competition these days negatively affected the visitors, costing them a goal.
City came back to win the game 3-2, leaving the Wanderers to feel stiffed – a belief that could help them heading into the game against Sydney. Unless for some reason you like being ripped off, human nature is such that when you believe you’ve been hard-done by it can have the effect of making you more determined the next time you play – regardless of whom it’s against.
But back to the factors that are clearly on the table, and while Sydney beat the Newcastle Jets last weekend, the 2-0 scoreline rates as close to the minimum expectation.
Sydney are among the competition’s genuine contenders, while Newcastle, after a splendid start to the season, have been sliding down the table for some time and had gone five games without scoring a goal before this match.
Again, they struggled to put anything away, but it wasn’t until the 80th minute that Sydney could afford to feel comfortable about the result by scoring their second goal.
And it took a player in Ali Abbas, who was making a comeback from more than a year out because of a horrible injury, to show his teammates how calmly and cleanly it can be done with an expert finish. Sydney should have won by more.
Bigger picture, Sydney are still missing Marc Janko, who left the club at the end of last season and took a bagful of goals with him.
They are also missing another departed forward in Bernie Ibini, who, as a genuine winger, gave them the width and ability to attack from the outside, which no-one else is giving them quite so well this season.
Smaller picture, Alex Brosque – who impressively lifted to take on more of the goalscoring responsibility with Janko gone and Filip Holosko struggling to find the back of the net – has recently struggled with a hamstring injury. He will be out again for the game against the Wanderers.
Holosko, to his credit, has been on the improve when it comes to goalscoring, but the problem is he’s not getting a lot of support in that department from those around him.
Young George Blackwood has been preferred as a starter up front and is still looking for his first A-League goal, while coach Graham Arnold has recently only used veterans Shane Smeltz and Matt Simon from the bench.
It has been left to Milos Ninkovic and, most recently, Abbas to fill in the gaps.
I realise that in the previous round Sydney got a good result on the road against City, drawing 2-2. I also appreciate Sydney’s natural ability to lift for a derby. But above that, Tony Popovic’s men are in better form overall and – most importantly – are functioning better in the front third.
There haven’t been many goals from Federico Piovaccari up front for the Wanderers, but Popovic has been able to persevere with him because both Mark Bridge and Mitch Nichols look capable of scoring every game.
And Romeo Castelen is forever dangerous with the ball at his feet and backing himself to beat a defender on his way in from the outside.
Sydney derbies often have to be won more than once and sometimes even more than twice. There has been amazing ebb and flow in them over the years.
The Wanderers look the more dynamic side and, as such, are the more likely winners.
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