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2016 Australian Open: Men's singles preview

Will we see Novak Djokovic face Andy Murray at the Australian Open final again? (Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images )
Roar Guru
13th January, 2016
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The first Grand Slam tournament of the year is nearly upon us, and once again all the focus will be on world number one Novak Djokovic as he seeks to win a record sixth title Down Under.

Djokovic was unstoppable in 2015, claiming 11 titles, setting a rankings points record, and getting to within two sets of completing his Grand Slam set before being stopped in his tracks by Stan Wawrinka in the French Open final.

Wawrinka, along with four-time finalist Andy Murray, four-time champion Roger Federer, and 2009 champion Rafael Nadal, headline the list of contenders desperate to knock Djokovic off his throne.

This year’s tournament also promises to be an emotional one, with Lleyton Hewitt set to officially bow out of professional tennis following his 20th consecutive Melbourne Park campaign.

One must wonder what it will be like when he concedes match point for the final time, not just in Australia, but also in his long, distinguished career, which includes two Grand Slam titles and 80 weeks on top of the tennis rankings.

Anyway, let’s get to the main contenders for this year’s Australian Open crown, starting with the world number one and defending champion.

Novak Djokovic
Current world ranking: 1

2015 summary
Grand Slam results
Australian Open: Won
French Open: Runner-up
Wimbledon: Won
US Open: Won
Titles won last year: Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome, Wimbledon, US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, World Tour Finals, Doha*
* – won this year.

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Australian Open history
Best result: Won five times (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015)
Last year’s result: Won

Djokovic is again the man to stop at Melbourne Park, having picked up where he left off from his dominant 2015 season with a dominant victory over Rafael Nadal in the final in Doha last week.

The Djoker’s 2015 season proved to be his best, both statistically and financially, winning 82 singles matches and earning over $21 million in prize money.

Among those titles, he won his fifth Australian Open crown, successfully retained Wimbledon, and then took his second US Open title, the latter two by defeating Roger Federer in the final.

This beats his 2011 effort in which he won 70 matches, ten titles and claimed the world number one ranking for the first time.

The top seed touches Down Under keen to continue his dominance, where he has reached the quarter-finals (or better) every year since claiming his maiden Grand Slam title in 2008.

Only once has the Djoker been beaten at Melbourne Park since 2010, in 2014 when he lost to Wawrinka in the quarter-finals in the second of three (and possibly counting) encounters between the pair.

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Question is, can anyone else beat him? My answer to that: no.

Prediction: Champion

Andy Murray
Current world ranking: 2

2015 summary
Grand Slam results
Australian Open: Runner-up
French Open: Semi-finals
Wimbledon: Semi-finals
US Open: Fourth round
Titles won last year: Munich, Madrid, Queen’s, Rogers Cup

Australian Open history
Best result: Runner-up four times (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015)
Last year’s result: Runner-up

After four runner-up finishes in the last six years, world number two Andy Murray – coming off another solid season in which he claimed four titles (including two Masters 1000 events) and finished the year ranked second in the world – will be hoping that it’s fifth time lucky at the Australian Open.

Among his four titles were his first two on clay, which has proven to be his worst surface historically and statistically. But the most significant title came in Madrid, where he annihilated clay court king Rafael Nadal in the final.

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He also claimed a record fourth title at Queen’s, and ended a two-year losing streak against Djokovic to win in Montreal.

While he arrives Down Under as one of the main contenders to dethrone Djokovic, he does so with his wife, Kim Sears, due to go into labour anytime – although the couple’s first child is not expected until mid-February. Murray has stated he is prepared to withdraw mid-tournament if that happens, meaning he’s no certainty for the title.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Roger Federer
Current world ranking: 3

2015 summary
Grand Slam results
Australian Open: Third round
French Open: Quarter-finals
Wimbledon: Runner-up
US Open: Runner-up
Titles won last year: Brisbane, Dubai, Istanbul, Halle, Cincinnati, Basel

Australian Open history
Best result: Won four times (2004, 2006, 2007, 2010)
Last year’s result: Third round

Four-time champion Federer arrives at Melbourne Park with a new coach in his corner, Ivan Ljubicic, in his latest bid to end a record Grand Slam title drought, dating back to Wimbledon in 2012.

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While he was unable to capture that elusive 18th Grand Slam title last year, he proved he still has what it takes at the highest level, reaching the finals at both Wimbledon and the US Open, losing both times to Djokovic.

He was, however, able to capture six titles, the most important of which was Cincinnati. .

The Swiss started this season solidly, if not spectacularly, reaching the final of the Brisbane International for the third consecutive year, but failing to defend the title, losing to Milos Raonic in straight sets.

And with only a third-round result from last year to defend, as well as Andy Murray having to defend finalist points, a return to the world number two ranking is definitely achievable for the ‘Fed Express’. To do that, he’ll have to reach the final, which he hasn’t done since claiming his most recent Australian Open title in 2010.

Prediction: Final

Stan Wawrinka
Current world ranking: 4

2015 summary
Grand Slam results
Australian Open: Semi-finals
French Open: Won
Wimbledon: Quarter-finals
US Open: Semi-finals
Titles won last year: Chennai, Rotterdam, French Open, Tokyo

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Australian Open history
Best result: Won (2014)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals

Following yet another solid season, which included four titles and a second Grand Slam title, 2014 champion Wawrinka will be out to repeat his success from two years ago.

Wawrinka started this season by winning a third Chennai Open title, and looks ready for another deep run at the Australian Open.

After falling agonisingly short of defeating Djokovic in the fourth round in 2013 (12-10 in the final set), Wawrinka not only reversed that result in 2014 (9-7 in the final set in the quarter-finals), but went on to win his first Major title, before climbing to a career-high ranking of world number three.

And in 2015, another win in Chennai, Wawrinka reached the semi-finals and again took Novak Djokovic to five sets, but this time the Swiss failed to win a game in the fifth and deciding set.

If the trend continues, Wawrinka could face Djokovic in this year’s final, and do not be surprised if they again go the distance.

But he has to get there first, and that is another question in itself.

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Prediction: Quarter-finals

Rafael Nadal
Current world ranking: 5

2015 summary
Grand Slam results
Australian Open: Quarter-finals
French Open: Quarter-finals
Wimbledon: Second round
US Open: Third round
Titles won last year: Argentina, Stuttgart, Hamburg

Australian Open history
Best result: Won (2009)
Last year’s result: Quarter-finals

After suffering the worst season of his career for over a decade, 2009 champion Nadal would love nothing more than to win his second Australian Open title and prove that he is not a spent force.

Nadal last year endured a barren season at the Majors, failing to even reach a semi-final and suffering just his second ever loss at the French Open, losing convincingly to Djokovic in the quarter-finals.

He suffered more embarrassment at Wimbledon, being upset by Jamaican-turned-German Dustin Brown in the second round for his fourth consecutive loss at the All England Club to a player ranked in the 100s.

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The Spaniard returns to Melbourne Park desperate to bury years of disappointment since he claimed the 2009 title against Federer in one of the tournament’s most memorable matches.

In 2010 he was forced to retire two sets and 3-0 down against Murray in the quarter-finals, in 2011 his bid to hold all four Grand Slam titles simultaneously was ended in friendly fire by compatriot David Ferrer, and in 2012 he fell agonisingly short of a second title, losing 7-5 in the final set against Djokovic.

He missed the 2013 tournament due to injury, and in 2014 his bid to duplicate the Career Grand Slam was thwarted by an inspired Wawrinka in the final.

Last year, he was a surprise quarter-final loser to Czech Tomas Berdych.

Now ranked number five, the Spaniard must better last year’s final-eight effort and hope Wawrinka suffers an early exit if he is to re-enter the world’s top four.

And with only a quarter-final performance to defend from last year, there will be no excuses.

Prediction: Semi-finals

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Other contenders
Former Grand Slam finalists Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be expected to go deep into the tournament, while Australia’s hopes will hinge on 16th-seed Bernard Tomic and 29th-seed Nick Kyrgios.

Nishikori will be out to produce a better performance than he did at last year’s US Open, when he crashed out in the first round 12 months after upsetting Djokovic to reach his first Grand Slam final.

Asia’s most successful man in terms of tennis ranking reached the quarter-finals in Brisbane, only to be beaten by Tomic in three sets. Last year, he reached the quarter-finals, where he was defeated by Wawrinka, and will be keen to go one better and reach his first Australian Open semi-final.

Tsonga would love nothing more than to repeat his 2008 run to the final, and having missed last year’s Australian Open due to an arm injury, has the chance to earn some precious rankings points and consolidate his place in the top ten.

As far as the Aussies are concerned, Tomic will be eager to reach his first Australian Open quarter-final, but will draw any of Djokovic, Murray, Federer or Wawrinka in the fourth round. He will have to bring his A-game if he gets to the round of 16, as he has never defeated any of the aforementioned four on the ATP World Tour.

As for Kyrgios, his seeding of 29th means he will run into any of the top eight seeds in the third round.

Murray claimed a hat-trick of victories against Kyrgios at the Majors last year, Nadal will be out for revenge after his four-set humiliation at the hands of Kyrgios at Wimbledon in 2014, Federer likewise after his three-set loss in Madrid last year, and of course everyone knows what happened the last time Kyrgios met Wawrinka.

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The Canberran is still under probation for his crude sledge towards Wawrinka at the 2015 Montreal Masters, but if he offends here he won’t be suspended for a month as the Australian Open is not run by the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP), but rather the International Tennis Federation (ITF).

Still, it remains to be seen whether his actions can speak louder than words.

France’s world number nine and Wimbledon semi-finalist Richard Gasquet is the only notable name missing from the field; he withdrew before the New Year due to a back injury. Australian young gun Thanasi Kokkinakis is also out due to a shoulder injury.

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