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Richie Porte won the stage, but Simon Gerrans now looks a virtual certainty to claim his fourth Tour Down Under title when the event concludes on Sunday, heading into the final stage with a nine-second lead.
REPORT: GERRANS NEARS FOURTH TITLE
Stage results
1. Richie Porte (BMC) @ 3:34:16
2. Sergio Henao (Sky) + 0:06
3. Michael Woods (Cannondale) + 0:09
4. Diego Ulissi (Lampre) + 0:17
5. Rafael Valls (Lotto – Soudal) + 0:17
6. Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) + 0:17
7. Simon Gerrans (Orica) + 0:17
8. Jarlinson Pantano (IAM) + 0:17
9. Patrck Bevin (Cannondale) + 0:17
10. Chris Hamilton (UniSA) + 0:17
The crowning moment of the 2016 Tour Down Under, as per tradition, should take place on Stage 5 with the longest and most difficult stage of the race stretching 151.5km from McLaren Vale to the famous Willunga Hill. Join The Roar for live coverage of the stage from 11:30am (AEDT).
Simon Gerrans (Orica) has won the last two stages in a row, yesterday in a sprint finish which certainly would have taken a few people by surprise. The most important thing about those victories, and some intermediate sprints he has picked up, are the bonus seconds he has earned.
Heading into the penultimate stage of the race he holds a lead of 14 seconds over Jay McCarthy (Tinkoff) with Rohan Dennis (BMC) at 26 seconds.
The stage itself is lumpy the whole way before the final pair of climbs up Willunga Hill. The riders begin the day with three laps of a circuit that is 40 kilometres in length from the start line in McLaren Vale to the coast at Snapper Point, which is the location of the day’s two intermediate sprints. They will come after distances of 63.4 kilometres and 104.3 kilometres.
The first circuit is very lumpy the whole way around before going up a solid hill and descending back down to the end of the circuit. At the end of the second lap of the circuit, it will look as if the riders are beginning another lap, however once they reach the end of Main Rd at Willunga, instead of turning right as they had been doing, the riders will turn left and line up the first ascent of Willunga Hill.
After reaching the summit of Willunga Hill for the first time at a distance of 129.1 kilometres they will descend and head back to main road. After reaching Willunga for the second time, they will turn left again and line up the finishing climb of Willunga Hill where the race will finish at the top.
The way this might play out, is for Orica to lead the pack all day, protecting Simon Gerrans with Darryl Impey his last man. BMC will be aggressive, with Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis playing the 1-2 attack card. Porte is over half a minute down so expect him to go first.
Among all of that, Jay McCarthy and Sergio Henao (Sky), along with Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) will be trying to hang on and improve their situation.
Prediction:
It is incredibly hard to see Gerrans riding badly enough to lose himself the bike race from here. Even if he doesn’t pick up any bonus seconds, being in the front group will be enough for him to keep the lead. For mine, it does look like Richie Porte has some very good legs though and will run away with the victory.
Join The Roar for live coverage of the queen stage in the 2016 Tour Down Under from 11:30 am (AEDT) and don’t forget to leave a comment if you’re following along with the action.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde