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The great mathematicians of our time have concluded that the Cairns Taipans still have the slimmest of hopes to make the NBL playoffs, but a Sydney Kings side playing for nothing but pride could end them at the Snakepit. Join The Roar for live scores from 7:30pm (AEDT).
Cairns come into this game as red-hot favourites, despite a ten-point loss at the hands of Perth to start Round 17.
They were simply too wasteful in that game, shooting at just 39 per cent from the field and sending the Wildcats to the line on 27 occasions.
The reason they’re expected to win with ease? They come up against a Sydney side that has been abysmal on the road this season, slumping to 1-10 following their loss to Townsville on Wednesday night. The Kings led with under two minutes to play, before a lazy turnover from Marcus Thornton gave the Crocs the surge they needed, going on to win by eight.
A key to this game is rebounding. Both teams have been poor at crashing the boards this season, in particular Sydney, who managed to give up a massive 16 offensive boards to the Crocs, a sign that Julian Khazzouh’s presence is missed.
Three-point also comes into play when matching these two sides up, as they both are streaky at best from beyond the arc. Neither team is short on players who can shoot the long ball, but putting it together over the course of the season has been tough. Look for the Taipans to create open looks for Cam Gliddon, who has been shooting well in his last few games.
Sydney (84.7) average four points more do than Cairns when attacking, but their number one problem all year has been defence. They give up 91.25 points per game, the worst in the league. To put that in perspective, the second-worst defensive unit in the NBL, the Illawarra Hawks, concede 87.5 points per game.
Cairns need to exploit the Kings’ defensive woes. Sydney’s interior was shocking at times against Townsville, with Jordair Jett and co. strolling in for easy lay ups as they pleased. The Taipans also have to get big bodies in the paint to contest their misses.
For their part, Sydney need to calm their offence and not force the shot just for the sake of it. Tommy Garlepp has been hot, but he needs to keep focusing on higher percentage looks as opposed to contested mid-range jump shots. Josh Childress has been working for the foul on drives too often in recent games, and would benefit his team by looking to kick it out to the open man.
The Kings lead the season series 2-1, including their only win at their new home court in Homebush.
Prediction
With Adelaide losing to Illawarra, the door remains ajar for the Taipans to sneak into the playoffs. That should be enough to motivation to overcome a Kings side low on confidence.
Cairns by 8.
Join The Roar for live scores of this NBL Round 17 match from 7:30pm (AEDT), and don’t forget to comment if you’re following along.
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