The Bow Mistress Trophy is a Weight For Age Mares race at Group 3 level to be run over 1200m at Hobart racetrack on Friday night at 6.23pm (AEDT).
Recent winners include the prolific Tasmanian mares Lady Lynette, Rebel Bride (twice) and Isibaeva. Even more impressive than any of those winners was last year’s victress, I Love It. She returns to defend her crown after a five-length romp against slightly inferior opponents in that edition.
Because of the level weights in this race, both she and fellow Victorian Miss Steele appear to have close to a stranglehold on the event. They have in fact met on four occasions (three times at level weights) with Miss Steele triumphant in three of those meetings.
I Love It is somewhat of a first-up specialist, and won this race off a very similar break last year. She has also drawn a lot better than Miss Steele (Gate 4 opposed to 15), and a look at the record of Miss Steele suggests that mare would have preferred a little more than the thirteen days between runs she gets coming into this race.
Another Victorian, Nadeem Lass, looks the only other mare who can be truly competitive at the weights. She actually beat both Miss Steele and I Love It the last time they met over 1200m at Morphettville (South Australia) in the Autumn, where she did have a 1.5kg weight concession.
She failed quite badly in this race last year behind I Love It, but that was her first trip away and she seems to have found more consistency in the twelve months since. Her first-up run when third beaten three lengths behind Bullpit reads very well for this, and if it were not for her horrendous wide draw and winning strike rate, you would seriously entertain thoughts of her claiming this race.
Of the locals, one who could run into a place at huge odds is the well drawn Spirit of Nia. She should appreciate racing against her own sex after a decent 2.5 length fifth last start at listed Weight For Age level behind the impressive Admiral. She comes into the race fresh, races well that way, and she does like to draw an inside barrier. Any rain around would be a distinct positive.
A Victorian with at least a place chance is the Nikki Burke trained mare, Nautical. She isn’t overly well weighted and doesn’t win out of turn, but she has drawn to advantage and it’s interesting to note Brad Rawiller is aboard. I’m probably reading way too much into it but he does have an excellent record aboard Miss Steele (2-1/4). Despite her poor strike rate, she is a very honest mare and if the breaks go her way she could win.
My selections: I find it hard to go past I Love It going back to back (as did Rebel Bride in 2012 and 2013), although her greatest advantage on paper (her barrier), could be her biggest negative. Oddly she has only won one of eight races when drawn between barriers 1-6, but a clean getaway (not always the case with her), and a trouble-free run in the race should see her go very close to winning.
It might actually be a case of which mare copes best from the barrier position they have been allocated. All in all this looks a good race to kick off a decent weekend of racing.
1. I Love It
2. Miss Steele
3. Nadeem Lass
4. Spirit Of Nia
I’m keen to back I Love It straight out at odds of $3 or better and have a small interest Each Way bet on the Tassie mare Spirit Of Nia. Any of the abovementioned should be considered in Trifectas and other Multis.
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