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Make no mistake, Richmond can win this year’s premiership.
They certainly have to make up some ground on last year’s grand finalists, and get that rather large monkey off their back by winning their first final in 15 years.
But in the past three seasons, just four teams have notched more home-and-away wins than the Tigers – Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and, of course, the all-conquering Hawks.
Yet, the Tigers aren’t taken seriously. Partly because they’ve had such a miserable 30 years and partly because they’re 0-3 in elimination finals since 2013.
But the talent, at least at the top end of the list is there.
In Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt, the Tigers have the best key forward-key defender combo in footy.
Brett Deledio is arguably the AFL’s best medium-sized forward. Fast, strong, exceptional overhead and a beautiful ball user, Deledio it the complete package. Ty Vickery is one of the better key forward/back-up rucks in the league, and the slick Shane Edwards delivers more often than not.
In the middle, Dustin Martin is a nightmare match-up inside and out (Dusty has averaged at least 20 disposals and a goal a game in each of the past five seasons, Gary Ablett Jr, at four, is the only other player to do it for longer than two seasons). Skipper Trent Cotchin, Anthony Miles and Shaun Grigg – yep, that Shaun Grigg – do the dirty work at the stoppages, with plenty of help from lionhearted ruckman Ivan Maric. Brandon Ellis provides outside run and class.
In defence, superstar Rance is ably supported by veteran Troy Chaplin, the criminally underrated Bachar Houli, and the improving Nick Vlaustin.
The Tigers’ list is ranked eighth in both age and experience, which should mean they are primed for a sustained tilt at the top four. But to take the next step, they need improvement from the bottom-end of the list and the coaches’ box.
Ben Griffiths, Steven Morris, Jake Batchelor, Dylan Grimes and Taylor Hunt all played more than 14 games in 2015. At best, they’re average AFL players – and each of them is older than 24, meaning there’s unlikely to be much, if any, improvement in them. Morris played only twice after Round 15 last year and wasn’t in the elimination final 22, meaning his days could well be numbered. For the Tigers to improve, they might need to demote a couple more from that group.
Who takes their place though, and how does that make them better?
Reece Conca is turns 24 this year. The Tigers need the former No.6 pick to become a consistent – and healthy – footballer. Injuries restricted him to three games last year, and in five AFL seasons he is yet to play 20 games or average 20 disposals in any of them.
After that, they’ll hope at least one of Ben Lennon, Corey Ellis or 2015 draftee Daniel Rioli – all of them top-15 picks – pops.
Vlaustin and Kamdyn McIntosh, both 22, should both be better with another preseason under their belts. Vlaustin, in particular, has shown plenty as a tough, medium-sized defender and at 192 centimetres and 91 kilograms, McIntosh is at least built like the prototypical modern midfielder.
The dynamic Chris Yarran could be one of the recruits of the year. Twelve months ago, Yarran was rated by Champion Data as an elite general defender. Few players have Yarran’s combination of pace, dare and sublime foot skills. After a miserable 2015, the former Blue – still only 25 – should shine on a more talented team, but it may depend on Damien Hardwick, which brings us to the other area that needs to mature.
The Tigers’ methodical, grind-it-out style of play netted them wins over three of last year’s top four teams, but when they were forced to up the tempo, they struggled. According to Champion Data, Richmond played on from a mark (excluding marks inside 50) only 30.9 per cent of the time last season, the lowest number in the AFL. League average was 35.5 per cent and Port Adelaide was at the top of the list at 41.9 per cent.
Richmond also played wide, using the corridor just 27.3 per cent of the time when transitioning from defensive 50 (14th in the competition). Playing slow and wide makes defending easier – turnovers are easier to defend when you’re less likely to be caught running ahead of the footy and your opponent only has half the field to work with – but it also makes scoring more difficult.
The Tigers conceded only 71.3 points a game last season (third in the competition), but scored only 87.7, ranked 10th. Of the top-eight teams, only Fremantle scored fewer points per game.
The downside of the Tigers’ dour style of play was never more evident than in their elimination final loss to North Melbourne. When things got desperate and it was time to open things up late in the game, they seemed unable, or unwilling, to take the game on.
The knock on the Dockers has long been that their inability to score means they can’t overcome the firepower of the Hawks (or last year’s Eagles). The Dockers would kill for a key forward as talented as Jack Riewoldt.
For the Tigers to take the next step, the most important change might need to come from Hardwick and his staff.