There I’ve said it, it’s out in the open and I don’t expect to have my judgment doubted.
Actually, feel free to question as my previous prediction of South Africa cleaning up at the recent ODI World Cup proved somewhat misguided.
I’d like to think my cricketing knowledge is decent and I watch enough to have formed an opinion about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the protagonists but my record as a gambler leaves a lot to be desired.
However, to change a famous adage slightly, all bad things have to come to an end and here’s why my luck is about to change.
More cricket:
» Australia’s selection crisis: Time to return the team to the people
» I’m calling ‘stumps’ on this summer of discontent
» Players to watch in Sheffield Shield
» How’s this for a Test World Cup idea? (Part 1)
» Selectors should not be commentators
» The Liebke Ratings: New Zealand versus Australia first ODI
I will use the Indians’ series win in Australia as exhibit A for the defence which has a bit more weight than the bookmakers’ odds, which have also installed Virat Kohli et al as short-priced favourites.
That is to be expected given home advantage and a good side but they wouldn’t be in that position if their form didn’t warrant it.
They have a dynamic batting line-up led by Kohli and the outstanding Rohit Sharma, a couple of spinners who are far more dangerous at home than on their travels and are dripping with limited overs experience.
Obviously they are not the only side who can boast hundreds of 20-over games on their CV. However, they have played the majority of their games at the grounds to be used for the tournament – and that has to count for something.
Australia’s victory last year in the 50-over event was certainly aided by conditions which were familiar and aided the way they prefer to play.
The same will ring true for the Indians in a month’s time.
If a key element has to be focused on, then the middle overs are where India could hold their trump card.
Even in a game of such short duration with cricket balls that barely lose their hardness, the ability to both take the pace of the ball in the field and to counter that with the bat is key to playing on the subcontinent.
Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja are bankers and expect their eight overs to be supplemented by a few more overs of spin from elsewhere. Counter that and you’re in with a real chance; fail to do so, as Australia did recently, and you’re on the back foot straightaway.
As a general rule, sides from outside the subcontinent are less proficient in this area then the Indias and Sri Lankas of this world and plenty of thought and resource will be piled into conquering this facet of the game.
But if it isn’t going to be the hosts then what of the rest?
I quite fancy the idea of an India-Pakistan final at Eden Gardens in the first week of April but this is based on little more than a romantic notion.
Group 2 is definitely the trickier of the two and at least one of the heavyweights will fail to make it as far as the semi-final stage. That could mean at least one winner takes all clash which will make for good viewing.
Australia have flaws – their bowling isn’t as effective as in ODIs – but if they start strongly they could do some damage and their top order isn’t to be sniffed at.
The same can be said of the New Zealanders who regularly punch above their weight in cup competitions and will fancy their chances.
On the opposite side of the draw, a resurgent England, with a dangerous batting order, will hope to emulate their victory of 2010 when they won out of nowhere. The same will go for South Africa who, and this counts against them, have an unfortunate habit of saving their worst for when it’s most needed.
That leaves a weakened and out of form Sri Lanka and a West Indies outfit who, if nothing else, seem to arouse themselves when only three hours of concentration is required.
So a last four of India, Pakistan, West Indies and England.
What do you think Roarers? Have I locked it in or do you disagree?
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