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Over the summer, I have been watching replays of AFL games from the 2015 season on Fox Footy and I was impressed with one young forward, Matt Taberner.
Looking at how other forwards have developed over their career, I have seen something of a pattern.
The best forwards, except for superstars like Buddy Franklin and Jesse Hogan, seem to start making their mark in their fourth season.
Taberner is set to hit that mark this year.
First, let me explain my theory by looking at Jarryd Roughead, Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy and Taylor Walker. These players are A-class forwards and it was in their fourth season where they started showing their true talent.
Over his first three seasons, Roughead kicked 58 goals. Then in his fourth season he scored 75 goals, just under double what he had scored in 2007.
Again, in Riewoldt’s first three seasons he kicked 57 goals before scoring 78 goals in his fourth season. This handed him the Coleman Medal for the 2010 season.
For Kennedy, the transition was not as dramatic. But in his first three seasons he scored 18 goals before kicking 31 in his fourth.
Walker was always one of the top AFL players with an average of 30 goals over his first three seasons, but in 2012 he doubled that with 63 goals.
So for Taberner the fourth season is the campaign most likely to have him break out of his shell and show true talent.
If he does have the breakout season and is able to get some consistent football then he should get around 40-50 goals in 2016.
With that he could solve the problems that Fremantle Dockers have with getting enough goals and bring up their average goal tally to the level of the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn Hawks.
Should Taberner get around the 40-50 goals then I see him becoming one of the best forwards to emerge over the next eight years. If not then it could be that he is not the talent we believe him to be, yet Fremantle fans will hope he fulfills his potential.
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