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Brisbane Lions: Midfield but not much else

8th February, 2016
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Who will take over from Dayne Beams as captain of the Lions? (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Roar Guru
8th February, 2016
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The picture painted for the Brisbane Lions by most observers for 2016 has not been pretty.

Indeed, the past few seasons have been trying for Lions supporters with the gradual retirement of former club champions and the concerning departure of former high draft picks.

In most ways this club is starting from scratch and the term ‘rebuild’ will no doubt be bandied about freely.

The Lions’ future success might well be closer than people think, yet it is certainly further off than 2016.

With respect to the best 22 listed below, I have once again been a slave to form and selected players in the roles specified by the All-Australian side.

For this reason, Josh Walker is listed as the second ruck on the bench, a position he began to gain more confidence in during his last couple of seasons at Geelong.

In practice, Walker would more than likely start as one of the key forwards and Daniel Merrett would play as a tall defender. Daniel McStay has also played back and could feasibly swap with Merrett at times.

Best midfielder: Dayne Beams
This particular prediction probably comes as no surprise to most people, although some may make a case for Tom Rockliff. Beams, however, contributes slightly more in all significant categories and delivers the ball more efficiently by foot than Rockliff.

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The Lions midfield is a decent looking unit with Mitch Robinson, Pearce Hanley and now Ryan Bastinac complementing the aforementioned Beams and Rockliff. Beams presents as a potential top ten midfielder for the whole league in 2016 provided he stays injury free. At 26 he is right in the prime of his career.

Best defender: Marco Paparone
Choosing Paparone as the Lions’ best defender was contentious because he often plays forward. His best returns have come as a defender, though, and this is where he should define himself as a player.

Prior to being drafted in 2012, Paparone recorded excellent contested marking data at Under-18 level. As a senior AFL player, he has probably found himself a little outsized and so his contested marking has not been a significant feature of his game.

Paparone is, however, 194 centimeters and at this size he is always a chance to be an aerial threat against all but the most powerful of key forwards. He is often lauded for his outstanding endurance and it is his ability to run and outlast opposition forwards which will ensure he is a constant threat to gather possession and link up with teammates coming out of the backline.

In terms of size and statistical output, Paparone projects as a flexible medium/tall defender in the mold of a player like Grant Birchall.

Best forward: Allen Christensen
When Christensen came to Brisbane, optimistic commentators predicted a pairing with Beams and Rockliff in the midfield. Indeed, some were of the belief that in a midfield role Christensen would have more chance to improve as a player.

This didn’t quite eventuate but all is far from lost. Christensen needs to carve a role for himself is as a high half-forward or small forward as opposed to a pure midfielder.

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Oftentimes this is seen as a shortcoming, as if truly good players are by definition midfielders, or that moving into the midfield is a sign of improvement and growth in a player. I do not subscribe to this notion and in Christensen’s case I believe as a forward he projects as a 20-22 possession per game player with very good instincts near the goalface.

Biggest strength: Midfield
As mentioned, the best players at this club are all players who play exclusively or predominantly in the midfield. This includes ruckman Stefan Martin and players like Christensen, Mitch Robinson and Daniel Rich who do not necessarily classify as midfielders per se, but whose roles involve clearance work or time in the midfield.

Most of these players are reaching the peak period in terms of age and experience meaning that they are likely to produce career-best results in terms of total possession, tackling and clearance work.

Biggest weakness: Key forwards
There has been a fair bit said about the lack of key forward strength at the Lions and the hope that new draftee Josh Schache will come to fill this void. Although I did not put Schache in the best 22 he will no doubt be given the opportunity.

If he performs at the league average for first-year forwards he will be comparable in output to Daniel McStay (although McStay projects as slightly better in 2016 than an average first-year forward). After this each of Josh Walker, Jonathan Freeman and Michael Close all project as less effective than an average first-year forward.

Here’s hoping that Schache performs above average for first-year forwards – nevertheless this would only provide hope for the future as opposed to 2016 success.

Best 22 average output
Brisbane: 15.12.92
Opponent: 12.13.85
Likely wins: 3-6

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All things considered Brisbane project as the weakest best 22 in the league. In order for them to win games, they would be relying on opposition injuries and perfect fitness of their own list.

A heap of work is going to fall to their midfield to not only dominate possession but also defend through tackling pressure and scoring goals. At their absolute best their midfield could be a real force and with Martin providing a unique combination of a quality tap ruckman and all-ground mobility, on a good day the Lions’ key position fragility might not be so apparent.

However, the list is overall too weak at either end of the ground and very young, meaning the Lions will struggle more often than not. I would estimate the team could win as few as three games and as many as six.

Best 22
Backs: Tom Cutler, Harris Andrews, Marco Paparone
Half Backs: Daniel Rich, Justin Clarke, Claye Beams
Centre: Dayne Zorko, Ryan Bastinac, Pearce Hanley
Half Forwards: Mitch Robinson, Daniel McStay, Allen Christensen
Forwards: Rohan Bewick, Daniel Merrett, Tom Bell
Followers: Stefan Martin, Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff
Interchange: Ryan Lester, Lewis Taylor, Nick Robertson, Josh Walker

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