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In the past ten seasons, no team has won more games than Geelong. In fact, the Cats’ 164 home-and-away wins since 2006 is 17 more than the next best team, Hawthorn.
That’s an average of 16.4 wins per season for a decade. Only once in that time has it taken more than 16 wins to finish in the top four – in 2011, West Coast finished fourth with 17 wins.
It’s even more impressive when you consider Geelong’s run actually goes back to 2004, when they lost a preliminary final to the Lions by nine points.
So it makes sense in a league that preaches equality that the Cats, with an ageing list, finally missed the eight last year for the first time since 2006 and the second time since 2004 – Geelong were only the sixth-oldest list entering last season, but most of their best players were on the wrong side of 30.
It’s not as though the 2015 Cats were a bad team. Eleven wins and a draw and a percentage of 101 is fine. Though it did seem Geelong were finally ready for a slide down the ladder and a rebuild before contending again.
Then they went and grabbed Lachie Henderson, a capable and versatile key-position player, and Patrick Dangerfield, one of the ten best players in footy, and rocketed themselves back into contention.
Or did they?
Lingering questions
What if Joel Selwood’s disappointing (by his lofty standards) 2015 was a sign of decline, and not just a down year? The Geelong skipper has already played 204 brutal games, including 21 finals. Not every great player gets to play 300 games.
What if this is the year club greats Corey Enright, 34, and Jimmy Bartel, 32, finally tip over the edge? Same goes for Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan, both 31.
Are we sure Chris Scott is a good coach and didn’t just take the reins of a great group of players who had a a chip on their shoulder because one of the best players of all time and their two-time premiership coach just bailed?
Can former All-Australians Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor recapture their best form, or something close to it?
What can the Cats expect from their big men? Mitch Clark has played 23 games since 2012, including eight last season – the same number Rhys Stanley managed. Recruit Zac Smith hasn’t played more than 11 games in any of the past three seasons and Nathan Vardy has taken the field 24 times in four seasons. Sensing a theme?
The good news
When you have the chance to get a player of Dangerfield’s calibre, you do it. And for a team that finished the season 13th in contested possessions differential and dead last in clearance differential according to Champion Data, Dangerfield (third in the AFL for contested possessions per game and eighth for clearances) immediately makes Geelong stronger in both areas.
At 25, Dangerfield adds to a talented core of players in or coming into their prime.
Lachie Henderson, 26, should provide a valuable second option should he play forward and is more than capable should he be required to fill a key defensive post.
We finally got a look at Daniel Menzel for the first time in almost four years and he couldn’t have been more impressive. He’s still only 24. If he can stay healthy, it’ll go a long way to filling the sizeable void left by Steve Johnson’s departure. Fingers crossed.
For all their big-man issues, Mark Blicavs has been a revelation. His outstanding year was topped off with a best-and-fairest award. Even in an age of big-bodied midfielders, Blicavs – at 198cm and 97kg – is a nightmare match-up. Like Menzel, he’s not yet 25.
Josh Caddy and Cam Guthrie, both 23, are coming into their primes as they near 100 games. Neither of them shirks a contest, and both should find life easier with Dangerfield in the line-up.
Mitch Duncan, 24, knows how to find the footy and is one of the league’s best ball users, and Steven Motlop, 25, is a dangerous player with the potential to be one of the game’s best attacking midfielders.
They drafted a player named Wylie Buzza.
The verdict
Geelong aren’t coming from a low base. They won 11 games last year, which included wins over finalists Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide and the Bulldogs, so the additions of Dangerfield and Henderson should be enough for them to return to September action.
Last year’s Cats were no match for the top three teams, however, and for them to close the gap on West Coast and Hawthorn and play deep into September, they’ll need a near-perfect run of health from their veterans and injury-prone big men, combined with improvement from their young and middle-aged players.