The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Group 1 Orr Stakes: Preview and tips

Boban will face tough competition at the Futurity Stakes. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Expert
11th February, 2016
22

Thoroughbred racing in Australia is at a low ebb.

Trainers are being investigated and disqualified for improper use of cobalt at every turn.

Racing Victoria and Racing New South Wales continue their version of the Hundred Years War. Neither association could spell common ground, let alone reach it.

Racing Queensland has its own problems.

But the show must go on, and the first Group 1 of calendar 2016 is upon us. The Orr Stakes assembly at Caulfield is a capacity 18 runners, 13 of which are Group 1 winners. It’s a strong edition after many weak ones.

Weight-for-age races in the Melbourne spring didn’t have much between first and last, with three or four lengths covering the field, and we often walked away thinking every horse had run well. This Orr Stakes field has a similar feel about it, with 13 of the runners resuming.

Lucky Hussler heads the betting, having been well backed to do so in the early markets.

Already a Group 1 winner this season, carrying top weight to win the Toorak Handicap, he has a run under his belt this campaign with an impressive winning performance at the Magic Millions. He’s fit, he’s a Group 1 WFA winner, and 1400 metres, Caulfield and a dry track are all in his favour.

Advertisement

Turn Me Loose was a dual-Guineas winning three-year-old in New Zealand before maturing and coming across to take all before him in the Melbourne spring, putting together three wins on the trot, culminating in a superb victory in the Emirates Stakes.

His bold, front-running style won him many admirers and will surely continue to do so if he keeps reaching new levels. If there’s a knock on him for this race, it’s that he isn’t a noted first-up performer (3: 0-2-0), and his record at 1600 metres (4: 4-0-0) is far superior than over seven furlongs (3: 1-1-0). Plenty of punters will think he’s good enough regardless, and rightly so.

The only other horse in single figures in such a deep race is the old warhorse Boban.

Boban won the Memsie Stakes over this course and distance back in August, beating four of his rivals here in doing so – Entirely Platinum (disappointed as spring went on, but capable of running a race), Stratum Star (subsequent Group 1 winner), Rising Romance (mixed spring campaign, watch and see here), and Happy Trails (starting to feel his age?).

Boban’s last two first-up runs, the only two of his career to be run over seven furlongs, have resulted in the Memsie Stakes and Doomben 10,000 wins – both Group 1 WFA races. Fans might like to have seen a fraction more from his recent trials, but if the tempo is genuine he’s sure to be thereabouts.

Of the others from the Memsie, Stratum Star is the best chance, a horse of proven versatility and quality that always runs well. Since transferring to Darren Weir, his combined record in the 1300 to 1600-metre range is 13: 4-4-4, and he strikes as a horse that will improve campaign upon campaign for a number of preparations yet.

Bow Creek is the interesting runner. He was one of the runs of the meeting on Cox Plate day, splitting Turn Me Loose and Lucky Hussler in the Crystal Mile, eating up the ground off the fence when the rail was lightning. He didn’t produce in the Emirates Stakes second-up (but did pull up lame), and he’s a threat if here to win first-up again.

Advertisement

Hucklebuck, Rebel Dane, Mourinho and Trust in a Gust come into this race off Australia Stakes runs, where there was only a couple of lengths between them, as is often the case in those Moonee Valley sprints, making judgements on merit difficult to make.

Rebel Dane was honest, but ridden too close for mine. He didn’t get the chance to unleash his turn of foot. Hucklebuck ran well but was a fraction flat late after using up some petrol early. Trust in a Gust made excellent ground out wide, and loves both Caulfield and 1400 metres. Mourinho is usually at his most threatening when people have forgotten him.

Fawkner resumes over 1400 metres for the first time in two-and-a-half years, but is a better horse now. He’s been so effective first-up over the mile in recent seasons, and he does run well fresh. You’d be keener if it was at Flemington.

Fenway has quietly built a very impressive resume for a mare with only 11 starts. She’s talented, and I’ve seen worse horses than her win better races than this. Rivals will need to be wary of her all campaign.

Suavito was first-up when she won the Futurity at this course and distance a year ago. While she did beat Dissident to do so, that race didn’t bat anywhere as deep as this. She can race though, and is one of a dozen that wouldn’t shock.

Messene is a good horse, but not a real Group 1 horse, and certainly not at WFA. Red Bomber and Awesome Rock are the two most despised. It won’t shock to see the former finish in the first half of the field, and the latter will look to run well and target some second or third tier races later in the autumn.

We’d be disappointed to see a field this big with this much quality not run at a genuine tempo, and with the engagement of Turn Me Loose and Entirely Platinum, it should be assured. There’s a handful of horses that will be jockeying for position behind that speed too, so there should be few excuses for those that are beaten.

Advertisement

Selections
1. Turn Me Loose
2. Rebel Dane
3. Boban
4. Lucky Hussler

There are some good races up in Sydney too, but don’t forget, if Winx brains them in the Apollo Stakes, don’t spend any time watching the replay, as the Orr Stakes is scheduled to start almost as they cross the line there!

close