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For precisely the reason I think 2016 represents the Wallabies’ best chance in yonks to break the Bledisloe drought, this season also represents a big opportunity to add to Australia’s Super Rugby title tally.
There’s little doubting the perception that with so many high-profile and vastly experienced players heading overseas after the World Cup, that the Australian Super Rugby teams and the Wallabies might struggle in 2016.
Yet all bar a few of the post-World Cup departures can still be picked for the Wallabies. It’s entirely possible that the core of the side that found itself within four points of the All Blacks inside the last 20 minutes of the World Cup final will remain for the next few seasons.
If anything, it’s the All Blacks who might suffer from player departures.
Think about who won’t be wearing the black jersey next year. We’re not just talking useful players, we’re talking proper legends of the game, particularly, two of the best to ever lace up a boot. Plus, all the fringe players who headed overseas, plus the numerous guys committing to chasing Olympic gold via rugby sevens.
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That’s not to say Steve Hansen is going to battle to find a strong XV. Indeed, the next generation of All Blacks have already played 30-40 Tests. They know the systems and know how the All Blacks want to play.
But how long will they take to gel as a team?
A lot of them have a lot of experience coming off the bench, but not as starters driving the team from the outset. This is why 2016 is the Wallabies’ chance to break the Bledisloe drought.
When you then apply this to the New Zealand Super Rugby teams, where the departures are more plentiful and the effect of rebuilding is much more pronounced, there really won’t be a lot between the top Kiwi teams and the top Australian teams.
And this is where the excitement builds for Australian rugby fans.
In all likelihood, we’re talking about the Waratahs and the Brumbies as being the most likely. I do like the Melbourne Rebels this season, and I think they’re well positioned to reach the playoffs for the first time. But they’re not going to lift the new Super Rugby cup in 2016.
The Brumbies will take virtually the same side that lost the 2015 semi-final in Wellington into 2016, and may have even grown as a team with the inclusion of Argentine scrumhalf Tomás Cubelli.
When you think about players the calibre of Ruan Smith, Albert Anae, Robbie Abel, Tom Staniforth, Nigel Ah Wong, Andrew Smith and even Robbie Coleman, you see decent quality players who might struggle for regular game time. And when players numbered 24 and 25 would quite likely slot straight into matchday squads elsewhere, that’s a sure sign of depth.
Depth aside, though, there’s also a very real ‘make or break’ feeling about the Brumbies this season. With Matt Toomua and Stephen Moore moving on from Canberra at season’s end, and David Pocock now odds-on to sit out 2017 in some shape or form, if the Brumbies don’t win in 2016, it might be a little while before they get another opportunity. That brings pressure, no doubt, but it will also be a big motivating factor for the squad.
The Waratahs lost Sekope Kepu and Adam Ashley-Cooper, among a few others, but still don’t look too bad. Dean Mumm is back in a NSW jersey full-time and Wycliff Palu has returned from Japan, too. If coach Darryl Gibson can put his mark on the Waratahs sooner rather than later, the Tahs will certainly be there or thereabouts, too.
How well or otherwise the Israel Folau experiment in the centres goes, or indeed, how long it lasts in 2016, will be a factor. After being named at fullback for this weekend’s trial against the Highlanders, Folau is already admitting, “I’m not even sure whether I’ll play [in the centres] at all.”
How quickly Bernard Foley comes back up to speed after a season in Japan with Ricoh will be another one.
I have to admit to having concerns about the Waratahs’ scrum in 2016, concerns that materialised when Paddy Ryan was absolutely towelled up by Allan Alaalatoa in the scrums during the Wagga Wagga trial against the Brumbies. Alaalatoa is a good young player, but he’s not a Super Rugby starting loosehead yet. But here he was, completely dominating the guy who has coveted the Waratahs’ No.3 jersey for years now.
Once recruit Angus Ta’avao came on, however, well, those concerns began disappearing. I know it’s ‘only a trial game’, but here was a guy who immediately shored up the scrum, has a surprising amount of mobility for a big guy, and who even has some ball skills. At the risk of hyperbole, he’s ‘buy of the year’ material, and that can only be a good thing for the Tahs.
In terms of likely challengers for the 2016 title, I’m not seeing much coming from outside the Australasian Group (which, as an aside, wouldn’t ‘Trans-Tasman Group’ have been a less domineering label?). The Stormers and Bulls might have good seasons, and the Sharks and Lions even have plenty of potential for good seasons, but title contenders? I’m not so sure.
Looking across the ditch, then, the Chiefs and Highlanders stand out. I worry about the Hurricanes post Conrad Smith for the same reason I worry about the Crusaders post everyone who finished up in 2015. And the Blues? Well, we love the Blues, but not in that ‘definitely getting my tip most weeks’ way just yet.
The Chiefs’ season rests on how well Aaron Cruden returns and how quickly they can rebuild their pack after a number of departures.
The Highlanders should start 2016 as outright favourites, yet the New Zealand TAB and the three Australian bookies I checked while writing this had them as low as the fourth line of betting, with prices of $8 and $9 common. I’m not a betting man at all, but the Highlanders at $9 strikes me as decent value.
Are the Chiefs and Highlanders definitely better than the Waratahs or Brumbies? It’s a bit hard to say right now, but that’s what we’re about to find out.
The nature of the new format, particularly the relative weakness of the African Group, means that the top African teams – whoever they are – will get a bit of a finals leg-up, which in turn might make another set of trans-Tasman semis difficult. But to me, that just opens up the chances of an Australian side.
Everyone’s unbeaten on February 18, of course, but I think this just might be Australia’s year.