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2016 AFL preview series: Essendon Bombers

28th February, 2016
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Essendon may not be top, but John Worsfold's season has been stellar. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Expert
28th February, 2016
77
2504 Reads

The poor old Dons.

With James Hird gone at the end of last season and John Worsfold appointed, some good recruits welcomed to the club via trade and free agency, two top six picks in the AFL draft, plus another couple in the top 30, things were looking up for Essendon.

Bomber fans were entitled to be using Taylor Swift’s Out of the Woods as their anthem through summer.

However, the Court of Arbitration for Sport was in no mood to “shake it off” when it came to the WADA appeal against the Essendon 34, handing down a suspension that will see 12 currently listed Bombers miss season 2016.

Tom Bellchambers, Travis Colyer, Dyson Heppell, Michael Hibberd, Heath Hocking Cale Hooker, Ben Howlett, Michael Hurley, David Myers, Tayte Pears, Brent Stanton, and captain Jobe Watson will all be on the sidelines.

By my reckoning, ten of the suspended 12 were going to be a part of Essendon’s best 22 this season, with seven of them being in their most important ten players.

Of course, the Dons were afforded the chance to sign up to ten previously AFL-listed players as top-ups, and they have taken that chance, using all 10 places.

Let’s have a look at the side they’ve been able to cobble together for this season:

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B: Mark Baguley Mitch Brown James Gwilt
HB: Martin Gleeson Nathan Grima Courtenay Dempsey
C: Brendon Goddard David Zaharakis Jonathan Simpkin
HF: Ryan Crowley Sam Grimley Adam Cooney
F: Nick Kommer Joe Daniher Matthew Stokes
Foll: Matthew Leuenberger Craig Bird Zach Merrett
Int: Shaun McKernan Orazio Fantasia Darcy Parish Aaron Francis
Em: Shaun Edwards Michael Hartley James Kelly

Now, this would not be the best side we’ve ever seen grace an AFL field, but it’s hardly the worst either.

The backline isn’t bad for what is sure to be a bottom four side, and there is at least some run there. Martin Gleeson will improve again, Courtenay Dempsey has set himself for a career-best season and James Gwilt will provide his share of heart attacks for Bomber fans, but all three at least all know how to run and carry the ball, which is important in an age where rebound from defence is so crucial.

Mitch Brown is back in the big leagues after a strong year at VFL level, and will perform soundly down back. Nathan Grima will be the best player down there if he can get his body right, sure to provide strength and purpose. Mark Baguley will play the lock-down role. All of these three can take a grab too.

Michael Hartley is ready to play senior football in a key defensive post if he gets his chance, and Matt Dea is a top-up player that is a handy back-up, having played 31 games at Richmond. He was always half a step behind AFL level, but his courage is unquestioned. Ultimately, the backline is limited but balanced.

The midfield was going to be a problem area for the Dons at full strength, and now they’ve lost prime movers like Watson, Heppell and Stanton, plus the speed of Colyer. The lack of A-grade talent is going to be exposed over the course of a long year.

Brendon Goddard will shoulder huge responsibility as the best and most experienced player, particularly with the captaincy on his shoulders. He needs support from David Zaharakis, whose career hasn’t gone the places that most thought or hoped it would. Zach Merrett is the other Bomber with some class, and is capable of entering the upper echelon of players throughout this season. He’s the one to watch.

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A host of players who made their name at other clubs will provide the most robust support for the above trio – ex-Dog and one time Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney, ex-Swan Craig Bird, ex-Docker Ryan Crowley, ex-Hawk Jonothan Simpkin, and ex-Cats Matthew Stokes and James Kelly, along with a ruck division led by ex-Lion Matthew Leuenberger and ex-Dee Mark Jamar.

That’s a lot of exes. We know which side they’d choose in a game of noughts and crosses.

Most of these players are unlikely to play every game, given age, limited preparations or historical injury concerns, but they’ll provide some ballast through the year. Essendon’s list management strategy through this crisis hasn’t been for everyone (including myself), but we can see where they’re coming from.

Despite all of their limitations, the biggest problem when we look at the Bombers this year is the glaring lack of avenues to goal.

Of the players available to them, only Joe Daniher kicked more than 10 goals at AFL level last year. It’s not a recipe for success.

But Daniher continues to grow as a footballer, and while his stats from 2015 look remarkably similar to 2014, he was playing in a far worse side. Four times he kicked three or more goals last season, including bags of five and six and Essendon won each time. He’s going to become the player the good judges thought he would be.

Shaun McKernan and Sam Grimley will battle valiantly to provide Daniher with some tall support, and a host of younger players will have to rotate through with the likes of Stokes and Cooney to provide the ground-level pressure in the forward half, and try to manufacture the odd goal.

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The forward line has been ugly for some time anyway, but now it’s going to struggle to post a winning score, and it’s not as if the midfield will be pumping it in to begin with.

The Bombers averaged just shy of 72 points a game last season. For context, Carlton, they of the horrible, coach-sacking year, averaged a tick over 69. The Dons are going to go backwards from their number, and if they can average 60 points a game it should be seen as a success.

It seems every year now there’s talk of a team that will go winless, and many are thinking Essendon are that club. History says it just doesn’t happen.

They’ll set themselves for the winnable games, and pinch a few along the way. The better sides may start resting players against them later in the season, which may open the door as well.

Yes, there are going to be some thumpings, and the year will be long, but a three- or four-win season is within their grasp.

Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th

Predicted finish: 18th

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Best and fairest: Brendon Goddard

Leading goalkicker: Joe Daniher

All-Australian potential: None

Rising Star candidates: Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis

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