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Carlton impressed relative to expectation in the first week of the NAB Challenge, looking spirited and organised against Hawthorn, before a reality check set in over the weekend.
They were comprehensively outplayed by Essendon, largely due to fielding a side without most of their best players.
The Blues are coming off a wooden spoon year of four wins, having won seven games the year before. But was 2015 the bottom-out, or is it still to come?
A case can be made either way, and the answer will have to do with three key things – can the core group of senior talent all play consistently near their best; can the playing list have a decent run with injury for the first time in a number of years; and can Brendon Bolton and his staff develop the younger players beyond expectation.
Let’s have a look at Carlton’s potential best squad:
| B: | Zach Tuohy | Sam Rowe | Jacob Weitering | |
| HB: | Kade Simpson | Michael Jamison | Sam Docherty | |
| C: | Dale Thomas | Patrick Cripps | Blaine Boekhorst | |
| HF: | Matthew Wright | Andrejs Everitt | Sam Kerridge | |
| F: | David Armfield | Levi Casboult | Andrew Walker | |
| Foll: | Matthew Kreuzer | Bryce Gibbs | Marc Murphy | |
| Int: | Ed Curnow | Kristian Jaksch | Dylan Buckley | Nick Graham |
| Emerg: | Andrew Phillips | Simon White | David Cunningham |
The first thing to note is a player like Simon White, who finished ninth in the Carlton best and fairest last year, in the emergencies. White not being part of the best 22 is a good thing – an honest footballer and no doubt a great club man, but more creative talent needs to be given a chance to shine.
The Carlton backline has a bit of the same old, same old feel to it, which is understandable given Kade Simpson, Michael Jamison, Sam Rowe and Zach Tuohy, staples down back for the past two seasons, will have an average age of 29 between them this season.
We know what each of these players is capable of, and their ceiling has been reached. Sam Docherty is still on the improve, and will be looking to further establish his play-making credentials down back, being welcomed as he has into the leadership group at the club. Hopes are high for him.
Blues fans will be wanting to see number one draft pick Jacob Weitering in action as well, desperate for him to start his on-the-job training in order to be the number one tall defender in a few years time, and potential gun of the competition. If nothing else could be taken out of the loss to the Bombers on the weekend, Weitering immediately looked the part.
Lachie Plowman is another they’d like to see force his way into the best 22. Are they both fighting for the same position, or can they force out someone more established? The development of these young players will inject some interest in neutrals watching the Blues too.
In the midfield, Patrick Cripps made everyone who likes football fall in love with him last year. What a player he is already. Carlton still have some bloody good footballers in there to support him, but are their names bigger than their collective output?
Marc Murphy is 28 turning 29, and you have to ask when in the hell did he get so old? I guess playing for the Blues will do that to you, and he’s not the dazzlingly skilled free-running ball-winner he was in the peak Ratten years.
Dale Thomas is in the same age boat and has only played 30 games in three seasons, with barely any of them a patch on his 2010-11 form. Yes, he’s had injury struggles, but let’s face it, he’s not the first player to find it easier to play good football in grand final sides and struggle thereafter. Yet people still continue to overrate that type.
Bryce Gibbs had his best year in 2014, only to follow it up with his worst in an injury-marred 2015. He’ll turn 27 just before the season starts, while Matthew Kreuzer, still seen as an unfulfilled talent on the rise, will be the same age not long after. A fit Kreuzer playing 22 games as the number one ruck becomes the most important player on the list.
All of a sudden the famous Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer triumvirate, who were supposed to be the youthful foundation of a successful dynasty once upon a time, have instead been part of a rotting carcass, and are now the experienced hands expected to lead another rebuild.
If these three and Thomas, all now clearly in the shadow of Cripps in terms of both output and leadership, regardless of titles, were to have career-best seasons, what would it mean for the Blues? How far from the bottom could they climb?
The Carlton forward line has had a cobbled-together feel for some time now, and will continue to do so now that Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell and Troy Menzel have been jettisoned.
Levi Casboult would be a good third forward and second ruckman, but has to play as the main target. He improves year-on-year though. Andrejs Everitt had a career-best season in 2015, and can consider himself robbed to have finished as low as eighth in the Carlton best and fairest. He’ll be solid again.
Matthew Wright and Sam Kerridge have been recruited to provide the ground-level smarts and add support in the middle, while Andrew Walker simply must play in the front half and average a couple of goals a game as the most talented and balanced forward at the club.
No AFL defence will be having restless nights before playing against that ‘attack’. In fact, the Essendon defenders will probably sleep soundly only twice this year – before Round 6 and 23.
Carlton’s depth is recycle city, but what kind of depth is it? For instance, if Jed Lamb finally cracks it for a regular game at his third club, does it mean he’s a better player than he was at Sydney or Greater Western Sydney? Or does it just mean the Blues are that much worse?
The Blues will get a look at most players on their list at some stage this year. Is there a surprise packet or two that will jump up and make a spot their own?
Brendon Bolton will be the story of the year one way or another. Taking over a basket case gives you a free hit for a couple of years, but Bolton is a man that wants to make an impression early. He’ll be patient when it’s called for, but short shrift will be given to those that don’t buy into exactly how he wants his side to play.
As ever, a new coach breathes fresh air into a tired football club, and the noises coming out of Princes Park are all the right ones. The older players are invigorated, the younger players get their chance to prove themselves to a fresh set of eyes. It’s unlikely we have another Mark Neeld on our hands.
Carlton won seven games in 2014, and while their side this season won’t quite be at the standard of them, it won’t be far away. They’ll be disappointed if they only won four again though. Somewhere in between those numbers feels about right.
Predicted ladder spread: 15th-18th
Predicted finish: 17th
Best and fairest: Matthew Kreuzer
Leading goalkicker: Andrew Walker
All-Australian potential: Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kruezer
Rising Star candidates: Jacob Weitering, David Cuningham, Charlie Curnow