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Five fearless predictions for the 2016 NRL season

29th February, 2016
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Moses Mbye of the Bulldogs. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Expert
29th February, 2016
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Here we go again! The 2016 NRL season kicks off this week, which means it’s once again time for me to put my head on the proverbial chopping block and open up for intense ridicule come season’s end – or potentially even sooner!

As has become an annual tradition, I’ll make five fearless predictions for the year in rugby league, and then sit back and let the vitriol and scorn begin.

Forget the drum roll, let’s just get into it.

1. The Roosters won’t make the eight
The departures of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, James Maloney and Michael Jennings.

Mitchell Pearce’s drunken antics, and the repercussions.

Injuries to Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner.

Legal issues with Shaun Kenny-Dowall.

I’m not even sure this is all that ‘fearless’ of a prediction. I’d probably be more shocked if the Chooks actually did make the top eight.

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However, given their proud history, recent success, and the impressive coaching of Trent Robinson, a finals series devoid of the Roosters still seems odd. The boys from Bondi won’t go down without a fight, but they will not finish in the top eight.

2. The Sharks will start slow, fire their coach, and then finish fifth
It’s a Roar fire sale – three predictions for the price of one! Everything must go!

With the premiership cupboard still collecting dust after all these years, Sharks fans must be among the most loyal and patient in any sport.

Sadly, that patience is running very thin in The Shire.

Cronulla have an impressive roster, with considerable depth and a number of top-level players. They had a good off-season, signing James Maloney to add some experience and direction in the halves, and retained the services of boom youngster Jack Bird.

Combined with a good season in 2015, the club should be setting their sights high in 2016, and with that expectation comes pressure.

The man who should be feeling that pressure the most is head coach Shane Flanagan.

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Questions remain over his tactics, team selections and his ability to coach in-game.

With all the talent at his disposal, a slow start could spell danger for Flanagan’s employment. Yet the Sharks will struggle early in the season, Flanagan will be sacked, and the team will rally behind a new coach to finish the year strongly, just outside the top four.

3. Moses Mbye will win the Dally M Medal
It’s pretty fearless – or outright stupid – to bet against Johnathan Thurston when it comes to the best player in the competition award.

Though Thurston will be considered the best player in the land come season end, the Bulldogs’ Mbye will take home the Dally M award.

I’ll naturally be accused of bias, and that’s fine, but officially handing the keys to the Dogs over to Mbye will ensure a big year from the talented halfback.

Confusion and insecurity reigned with the Dogs’ halves last year, as it was never clear who the preferred combination between Mybe, Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds was. With Hodkinson moving on, and Mybe locked up to a long-term contract, this is now the youngster’s team.

He’ll be more confident this year, he’ll have his hands on the ball a lot, and playing behind that massive Dogs pack is a dream for any halfback.

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Above all, he’s a very good player, who should poll strongly in the 2016 Dally M count.

4. Blake Austin will win a man-of-the-match award in State of Origin
I originally had this prediction as ‘Blake Austin falls off a cliff’. No, not literally. I meant that he’d come back to earth with a thud after a stunning 2015 campaign.

Then I watched some Austin highlights from last year again, and realised pretty quickly that last season was no fluke.

The Raiders five-eighth runs the ball hard, and has an array of skills that won’t suddenly desert him. He didn’t play well last year because of good luck or red-hot form that isn’t sustainable; he played well last year because he’s extremely talented.

He should have played for NSW last year, and I can’t imagine the Blues’ selectors will make the same mistake again. Actually, I can totally imagine them making the same mistake again, but let’s hope they don’t.

Austin should wear the sky blue number 6 jersey this year; he’ll dominate one game, and earn a man-of-the-match award.

5. The New Zealand Warriors will win the premiership
Sorry Woe Woe fans; I’ve just consigned your team to not even making the finals series with this ‘kiss of death’ prediction.

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Though I’m far from convinced the Warriors actually will win the premiership, the Cowboys are too easy a selection, and the fact no team has won the NRL competition back-to-back ensures history is also against North Queensland.

If Brisbane can rebound mentally from their demoralising grand final loss, they’ll rightfully be considered premiership heavyweights, but I’m going outside last year’s top two teams and choosing the unpredictable Warriors to win in 2016.

Let out a deep breath Melbourne fans, but if there is a better spine in rugby league than Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, I’d love to see it. New Zealand has a crazy amount of ability and class in key positions, and if they gel quickly, they’ll cause plenty of headaches for opposing coaches.

Provided the rest of the team can perform their roles, stay healthy, and play consistently (no easy task, given the team’s history) the Warriors have the talent to beat any team. If they get hot once the finals starts, they could go on a roll and be the team standing on the dais come season’s end.

I’m predicting they will be.

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