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The Brisbane Lions haven’t had things go their way in recent times. Golden son Michael Voss sacked as coach. Umpteen player defections. No higher than 12th on the ladder in the last six seasons.
They finished 17th in 2015, their lowest position in history, only avoiding the wooden spoon by sneaking home for a win in the last home-and-away round of the year.
Several of their best players missed too much football, which bottom four clubs simply can’t afford.
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Let’s have a look at the type of side they might put together this year:
| B: | Liam Dawson | Daniel Merrett | Darcy Gardiner | |
| HB: | Marco Paparone | Harris Andrews | Sam Mayes | |
| C: | Pearce Hanley | Dayne Beams | Daniel Rich | |
| HF: | Tom Bell | Josh Walker | Dayne Zorko | |
| F: | Josh Green | Daniel McStay | Allen Christensen | |
| Foll: | Stefan Martin | Mitch Robinson | Tom Rockliff | |
| Int: | Ryan Bastinac | Lewis Taylor | Josh Schache | Ben Keays |
| Emerg: | Claye Beams | Tom Cutler | Rhys Mathieson |
The backline looks quite limited on paper, and in some ways is a collection of no-names for casual football fans, Daniel Merrett aside.
But Marco Paparone had the type of season last year that Lions fans would like to see some of his teammates replicate – a versatile 20-year-old making a quantum leap in performance in this third year, capable of playing tall or small, equally comfortable rebounding or taking a grab.
Harris Andrews looked the part as a tall in his debut season, not always easy to do. Liam Dawson and Darcy Gardiner have only played 35 games between them. Justin Clarke is waiting in the wings if he can get the all clear for his concussion issues.
The midfield is Brisbane’s clear strength, but they didn’t get a chance to really flaunt it last year. Looking at their best three players, Dayne Beams missed six and a half games, Tom Rockliff only played 14 full matches, Pearce Hanley only nine. Only once did all three start and finish the same game, in Round 15, when the Lions almost toppled a full strength Sydney.
They were basically missing one gun midfielder every week, and that makes it tough.
Daniel Rich will look to build on last year after missing 2014 with a knee reconstruction. He needs to find a way to get more of the ball so we can see his damaging left boot more frequently. It was pleasing to see Mitch Robinson get some recognition up north, as he was unfairly maligned at Carlton. He’s a good player.
While they’ve lost the solid Jack Redden and a high draft pick in James Aish, they add in a good player in Tom Bell and a 120-game 24-year-old in Ryan Bastinac, who’s the kind of player that we often see thrive with a change of scenery.
Stef Martin is one of the top few ruckmen in the competition given that he can win his own ball on the ground, and can provide link support through the middle of the field.
It’s a midfield that should be able to generate a lot of supply, but it will be to a forward line that isn’t going to strike fear into many opposition hearts.
Daniel McStay looks to have a lovely pair of hands, but a lot is being asked of him so early in his career. Josh Walker has been recruited from Geelong after 33 games in four years, to draw the football as a focal point in attack. He’s kicked three or more goals in a game five times in the last few years, mostly against bottom sides, but that’s OK if he can help deliver half a dozen wins.
Can young key forwards Jonathan Freeman or Michael Close demand selection, having shown a bit in their brief exposure at AFL level?
The Brisbane ‘mosquito fleet’ can also have an influence, with creative half-forwards like Dayne Zorko, Allen Christensen and Lewis Taylor to combine with a genuine forward pocket in Josh Green. Christensen is the player who can elevate this side if he puts his mind to it, he has talent to burn.
Given the Lions forward line may be smaller than most, that mobility needs to become a strength. The focus must be on making it hard for opposition sides to rebound from defence easily.
One of the questions for the Lions this year surrounds what kind of impact the draftees can have. Ben Keays and Rhys Mathieson have been making an impression. What sort of football will number two draft pick Josh Schache play?
Can the likes of Rohan Bewick, Ryan Harwood and Ryan Lester prove themselves anything but list-cloggers?
Sam Mayes has been a disappointing player since making an impression on debut in 2013. It’s like he hasn’t improved between game one and game 53, and if anything he has regressed. At his best he’s a smooth mover and classy ball-user. Does he demand enough of himself?
Justin Leppitsch seems to be perpetually surrounded by rumours of player unrest, which is never healthy and usually has a basis in fact somewhere along the chain. His main focus at the moment should be player development, given his list is the youngest in the league, and there does look to be some talent within it.
If Brisbane have the best run of injuries of the sides expected to be in bottom four contention, then they shouldn’t be in any danger of finishing there. Avoiding destabilising rumours is another key, with the leadership group needing to figure out a way to put an end to them.
Finals action seems a stretch, but this club has a chance to be seen in a more positive light six months from now than they are today.
In many ways, Brisbane should finish higher than 16th, and it’s only their draw when assessed against St Kilda that has me placing them this low.
Predicted ladder spread: 12th-16th
Predicted finish: 16th
Best and fairest: Dayne Beams
Leading goalkicker: Josh Walker
All-Australian potential: Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff, Pearce Hanley
Rising Star candidates: Ben Keays, Rhys Mathieson, Jarrad Jansen, Josh Schache