Debate has been raging all week about the best way to structure the Australian Group 1 racing calendar, and we thank our readers for all comments. We love nothing more than encouraging educated debate here at The Roar.
So, onto the races themselves.
We arrive at double Guineas day. Randwick Guineas – Group 1, 1600m, 3yo, set weights. Australian Guineas – Group 1, 1600m, 3yo, set weights.
Randwick Guineas
Press Statement has a stranglehold on the betting, and probably on the race. Since being defeated in the Golden Rose last September, he’s put together three untroubled wins, in the Stan Fox, Caulfield Guineas and the Hobartville two weeks ago.
He’s seen 1600m twice before, and has walked away a Group 1 winner both times, remembering his JJ Atkins victory as a two-year-old. The great shame is that his best half dozen challengers are racing in another state.
Stay With Me is second-elect in the market, and what a pleasure it is to see both Guineas winners from the spring matching up over the mile in another state in the autumn.
Some have written her off after what they believe to be two below-par runs this campaign. Others have forgiven her, suggesting she’s run well despite having things against both times. She’s a filly that doesn’t always put it together on race day, but when she does, she wins.
Le Romain and Montaigne filled the placings behind Press Statement in the Hobartville. The former has run well despite wide barriers and has more chance of getting cover here from a middle gate. The latter gets right back and charges home, and is already a winner over 1600m this prep.
Of the others from the Hobartville, Dal Cielo mixes his form but is capable of filling a hole.
There are some different formlines converging here, to add some spice to the race.
Tulsa is coming up from the CS Hayes, usually the main lead-up for the Australian Guineas. He ran extremely well there, and would have finished even closer had he not shied at the Flemington clock tower.
Mackintosh must be respected, as all Kiwi three-year-olds should be, but he’s got it all to do off a seven week break. Data Point and Man of Choice should run well coming in off restricted races, but look for them over further in the coming weeks.
Selections
1. Press Statement
2. Tulsa
3. Stay With Me
4. Montaigne
The Canterbury Stakes is the other Group 1 on the Randwick card, a 1300m race that only has two genuine sprinters engaged.
And who says we have too many Group 1s in this country? Oh, that’s right. Justin and I do.
First Seal heads the market after her easy last-to-first winning return in the Millie Fox. Second-up is a little query off such a long break, as is staying at the 1300m, but it’s always worth noting that this mare beat Winx home all five times they met as three-year-olds.
Our Boy Malachi’s form ties into Winx too, through Solicit. He whipped that horse first-up, and then she ran Winx to a length before winning herself. Solicit has been improving with each run, but it’s still an emphatic case for Our Boy Malachi, who has already been placed at Group 1 weight-for-age.
Criterion and Kermadec are the proven Group 1 performers resuming, albeit a lot more comfortable over further.
Criterion resumed with a third in this last season before racing on to take out the Queen Elizabeth. Kermadec isn’t a first-up horse in this sort of grade, but will be targeting the George Ryder and Doncaster.
Holler is a bright hope if he brings his best. His only two career failures have been second-up, so he might be forgiven last start. Ecuador is a knock-out hope, as he invariably runs well in these sort of races and is always up for a fight first-up. Happy Clapper can run very well and still finish last.
Selections
1. First Seal
2. Our Boy Malachi
3. Ecuador
4. Holler
The Australian Guineas could be a race of rare depth and complexity, if Xtravagent doesn’t blow them away that is. Seriously, what sort of horse routinely wins Group 1s by eight lengths?
Outside of the star Kiwi colt, it looks an incredibly even race.
Mahuta keeps winning, and carrying weight while doing it. He’ll relish a return to set weights, but this is his toughest test yet. Stablemate Palentino has been a hard-luck story both runs this campaign, and there are punters who still haven’t slept since the protest against him was upheld in the CS Hayes.
Tivaci won that race, and his run was exceptional after being forced wide a long way out. There is a big watch on the Vic Derby winner, Tarzino, on his way up to Sydney for the longer trips. He returned in fine style behind Mahuta, and will be winding up down the spacious Flemington straight.
The first-up run of Spring Champion winner Vanbrugh was better than it looked on paper. Chris Waller horse, big odds, Flemington Group 1? Hmm, we’ve seen this story before.
Three fillies have won the Australian Guineas in the last decade, and it’s good to see four of them in this race.
Risque is the pick of them for mine, the former New Zealand filly coming off a dazzling first-up victory at her first start for David Hayes and Tom Dabernig. Perfect Reflection only got clear at the 150-metre first-up in the Vanity, and ground away well from there. She’s drawn inside again, which must count against in a big field.
Jameka is a top class filly herself, but will need everything to go right and others to miss a few tricks in order to beat them all. Plenty of 40-1 shots will run worse than Sailing By tomorrow too.
Bon Aurum, Sovereign Nation, Ready For Victory and Snoopy will all run well at huge odds. It won’t surprise to see any of them sneak a place with the right run. It’s that sort of race.
Selections
1. Xtravagent
2. Risque
3. Mahuta
4. Ready for Victory
Elsewhere at Flemington, Selenia is ready to win dropping back in grade after two very good runs in the Blue Diamond lead-ups, and my spies tell me Tom Melbourne has improved again, holding his own in trackwork against Our Ivanhowe down at the Freedman stables. There’s some value there.
Serene Majesty is the pick of ‘Rose’s Roughies’ at around $17 in the Fireball at Randwick, and don’t leave Kinglike out of anything up in Sydney either. He’s a serious talent.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
