We’ve now reached the stage where the Sydney autumn carnival is heating right up.
Have days like Golden Slipper day and The Championships overtaken any single day Melbourne has to offer in the spring? There’s a strong case to be made.
And it’s arguable that the overall racing package Sydney has to offer over the next four Saturdays is a better product than anything seen in spring too. They are never going to get the crowds of Melbourne Cup week, nor have a race of that stature, but the fields over the next month is about as good as racing can get in this country.
We’ll save the Slipper for tomorrow, but today we’ll have a look at the two weight-for-age events, the George Ryder, the only other million dollar race on the card, and the Ranvet, which is the key Queen Elizabeth preview.
George Ryder
Winx is the dominant favourite, as she’s destined to be for the rest of her career. She’s up to seven wins in a row now, four of which have been Group 1s, and it is now 11 months since her last defeat.
Barrier seven makes things a little tricky for Hugh Bowman, and he’ll have a decision to make early, but with his mastery and her turn of foot, it shouldn’t really matter where she ends up.
How good is it that Chris Waller has thrown Caulfield Guineas winner Press Statement and Doncaster winner Kermadec up against her? No running and hiding from the star stablemate for these two.
Press Statement did everything but win the Randwick Guineas after not getting out in time as the prohibitive favourite. The run was still full of merit, even though most of what should have been his better opposition were down in Melbourne.
Kermadec was never really in a position to win the Canterbury Stakes first-up, and was likely never going to be, but his return was very good for a horse with loftier goals over further down the track.
It will be interesting to see where he sits at the end of autumn. Is he a genuine top-liner at weight for age? Will he always have too much weight in a handicap? He might end up stuck in-between.
First Seal ran second in the Canterbury, just in front of Kermadec, when neither could run down Holler. She’s a serious mare in her own right, with her own share of acceleration, and beat home Winx the five times they met as three-year-olds!
Happy Clapper also comes from the Canterbury, where he more than held his own against the more proven horses. He’s flying, if he can find his right race, which surely can’t be this. Tinto’s form ties into Happy Clapper from the De Villiers back in December, when those two ran the quinella.
Tinto meets him five kilograms better for a length defeat there, but it’s hardly the A-form.
Turn Me Loose and Hucklebuck, the last two Emirates Stakes winners, come up from the Futurity Stakes in Melbourne.
Turn Me Loose won in comfortable, if not arrogant, style and showed that he didn’t have to lead in order to put away a field. He’ll take up the running here though, you can be sure of that, and if he can get his own way in front and Opie Bosson rates him perfectly, we might see the hint of an upset early in the straight.
Hucklebuck’s Futurity run needs to be forgotten, when he went bolting along out front. His previous run was excellent, and he’s some sort of place chance at odds.
This is Winx’s toughest test this campaign. Five quality horses in opposition, stepping back in distance, awkward barrier, and a genuine Group 1 horse should get his own way in front.
Who thinks she’s going to make a mess of them?
Selections
1. Winx
2. Turn Me Loose
3. First Seal
4. Press Statement
The Ranvet is a $700,000 race, but hasn’t attracted a crack weight-for-age field, and does not appear to be an edition worthy of Group 1 status.
Hauraki is the favourite despite having never won a Group 1 or at weight for age, which speaks to the lack of depth in the field. His closing third in the Chipping Norton was a very good indicator though, and his second in the Craven Plate in spring behind Complacent would have him going close here.
Dibayani ran second in the Chipping Norton, and looks a better horse this campaign after a slightly underwhelming spring. He looks an honest horse, but no world-beater. He’ll get his chance here.
Criterion is the clear class of the field, and it will be interesting to see if the punters take that into account as race time draws nearer. The last two times he was seen at 2000 metres in this country, he won the Caulfield Stakes and ran an unlucky second to Winx in the Cox Plate.
The step up from 1300 metres shouldn’t be a problem, but the question is whether he’s come up after a Melbourne Cup campaign and Hong Kong trip.
The United States has made a big impression in his two starts this prep, after some lovely runs in the spring. His return in the Futurity was the eye-catcher of the day, and he just couldn’t quite match it with He or She in the Blamey last week.
He should thrive up to 2000 metres now, if he can handle the back-up, which team Williams don’t employ all that often.
Storm the Stars is the latest in a long line of Chris Waller imports. He trucked along OK in the Chipping Norton, and his overseas record suggests the step up in trip will suit as well. Who’s to say the Waller magic can’t lead him to victory here?
Kool Kompany is another Waller import. He’s had three runs in the country in the lower black type grades, making little impression enough for a horse tackling Group 1 weight for age.
Another of Waller’s, Weary, hasn’t run well since Rain Lover won his second Melbourne Cup, which is fitting, because he’ll need a wet track to figure. He knows how to draw a wide barrier, that’s for sure.
Mongolian Khan is the Caulfield Cup winner, but was plain awful in the Chipping Norton. You couldn’t back him off that, and I won’t be.
Bohemian Lily is the only mare in the field, and in the AFL she’s what we’d call a good ordinary player. This sort of race can be won by an inferior horse that takes up the running, as Awesome Rock nearly did last week.
Selections
1. Criterion
2. Hauraki
3. Dibayani
4. Bohemian Lily
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