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The first of the monuments for 2016, Milan-San Remo always throws up some interesting racing over the 300 kilometres journey from Milan to the coastal town of San Remo. Join The Roar for live updates fromt the race, starting from 11:45pm AEDT.
The race has a few key names that help describe it.
Firstly it is often referred to as the ‘sprinter’s classic’, due to the fairly flat parcours. Over the last five years, the race has been dominated by the sprinters, and tonight’s edition should be no different.
The second name is ‘La Classicissima’, or in English, ‘The Spring Classic’. If you are a major classics fan, this race starts an intense three week period where the peloton will face the tight and twisty roads of San Remo, the rain and wind of Flanders, and the dust and despair of Roubaix.
Tonight’s race might not be everyone’s cup of tea compared to Flanders or Roubaix, but over the last few years the weather has made the race truly epic.
The race starts in the city of Milan and will take quite a while to really get going, over 150 kilometres of the 290 kilometres in fact before the riders face the first main obstacle of the day, the descent of the Passo del Turchino.
After the descent, the riders will have just over 130 kilometres to ride. For mine, this is where the race really starts, we will start to get an indication as to which teams want to work and which teams will hedge their bets till later in the day.
From here on in the riders will hug the coast line all the way to the 20 kilometres, where the riders, however many of them are left after the torturous preceding 270 kilometres, will tackle the two definitive climbs of the Cipressa and the Poggio.
The Cipressa starts with just over 20 kilometres to go and averages four percent for over five kilometres, with the first half of the climb being the steepest. We should see the first of the big attacks over the top of the climb, as a short descent and flat section follows before the start of the final climb of the Poggio.
The technical descent off the Cipressa will allow attackers to get out of sight quickly, but a flat five kilometres into the final climb will mean a group of riders will need to get away if they are any chance of staying away over the Poggio as well.
This was a problem for one of this year’s pre race favourites, Vincenzo Nibali in 2014, where he attacked early on the Cipressa, but could not sustain the effort once he hit the flatter roads heading to the Poggio.
Once the riders get to the Poggio they will have a similar climb to that of the Cipressa, with the riders only suffering for 4 kilometres at around 4 percent, with the steepest gradients once again being in the first half of the climb.
The riders who favour the hills will look to attack early on in the climb and keep a gap before the extremely daring and technical descent heading back into town.
The last time a group of riders attacked on the Poggio and stayed away was in 2012, where Australian Simon Gerrans took the win.
The last challenge before the final sprint in San Remo is the descent off the Poggio, where we will see the final chance for any escapees to try and get away before the expected bunch sprint finish.
Expect riders like Cancellera, Nibali and Sagan to be at the head of affairs coming over the Poggio looking for any opportunity to get away.
Favourites
Michael Matthews (Orica Greenedge)
After winning two stages at Paris Nice, and with it, the points classification, Michael Matthews is perfectly primed for another shot at winning La Primavera.
After finishing third last year, he will be looking to go that little bit further to stand on the top step this year.
Matthews ability to sprint after the challenging final 25 kilometres will be the key for him, he should be able to comfortably clear the challenges of the Cipressa and the Poggio and set himself up with a chance to take victory.
In the final he will be protected by the experience of both Michael Albasini and Dayyl Impey, with new recruit to Orica Greendge, Luke Mezgec, the man to guide him in the sprint.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha)
2015 was a fabulous year for Kristoff, finishing second at San Remo then taking his first monument at Flanders. He has the confidence to perform on the big occasion, so today is set for him to shine again.
Another superb start to the season for the Norwegian, taking out three stages wins and the general classification at the Tour of Qatar, whilst a further two stages wins were notched up at the Tour of Oman.
Since then, he has had two second place finishes, at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and on Stage 5 at Paris Nice.
Kristoff is one of the hardest men in the peloton, and should be able to deal with whatever situation prevails come race time.
Peter Sagan (Tinkoff)
The World Champion will be looking to break his streak of second places and take his first win in rainbows here at San Remo. The profile suits him, he has the speed to win in a sprint, but can he really beat the pure sprinter like Kristoff at the end? Hard to say.
One of Sagan’s most important qualities is also one of his potential weaknesses. He is so good at climbing, and sprinting, that he does not centralise his time focusing on one or the other.
This therefore means that in the pure sprints, especially in races like the Tour De France, he very rarely takes the victory.
For mine, Sagan needs to use his supreme descending skills and attack away on the Poggio to isolate the sprinters and bring about a smaller group finish. He has always shown his willingness to attack, and for mine, it is the only way he can win because honestly, there are faster guys in the field than him.
So in summary, bunch sprint it’s Matthews vs Kristoff, but you can’t rule out Sagan for a late attack over the Poggio and down the descent. Whatever the story, it should be a fun race.
Join The Roar‘s live coverage of the first monument of the cycling season, Milano San-Remo from 11:45pm AEDT.
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