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Will it be third time lucky for the Penrith Panthers?

Jamal Idris is set to play for the Wests Tigers. (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Grant Trouville)
Roar Guru
18th March, 2016
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Two teams with contrasting fortunes clash when the Penrith Panthers, hungry to record their first win for 2016, welcome to Pepper Stadium last year’s beaten grand finalists and current premiership favourites the undefeated Brisbane Broncos, on what should be a balmy night at the foot of the mountains.

Penrith under former Broncos coach Anthony Griffin have suffered consecutive heart-breaking last minute losses to both Canberra and Canterbury-Bankstown.

Accompanying these losses has been a continuation of their 2015 injury plight into 2016, having already claimed the likes of Matt Moylan, James Segeyaro and Dean Whare among others.

The loss to the Bulldogs was especially a bitter pill to swallow as the Panthers dominated everywhere but the scoreboard before Moses Mbye scored his 80th minute try and enabled debutant Kerrod Holland to etch himself into Bulldogs folklore, kicking Canterbury-Bankstown in front for the only time in the match.

More importantly the loss highlighted continuing problems in attack for a team who scored the least number of points in 2015, having scored just the two tries last Thursday night despite a strong completion rate built upon a decent share of possession.

It doesn’t get any easier this week playing the premiership favourites who in the past ten games have conceded a total of just 118 points in defence with the highest points conceded in that time being just 18.

Brisbane come into this clash on the back of a 25-10 victory over the New Zealand Warriors last Friday in an effortless performance where the Broncos were never in doubt of winning despite hardly getting out of third gear, after starting 2016 with a 17-4 win at Parramatta.

It might be early days but multi-premiership winning Broncos coach Wayne Bennett looks to have eased the heartache out of the playing squad and already Brisbane look more than capable of going one step further in 2016.

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Apart from the obvious subplot of Anthony Griffin coaching against the man who forced his departure from Brisbane despite three finals appearances in four years, Peter Wallace in what will be his 50th NRL game for the Panthers finally gets his chance to play against the former understudy that ensured his messy departure from Red Hill, Ben Hunt.

Currently in the last season of his three-year deal at the foot of the mountains, Wallace has missed the previous two clashes due to injury.

Team news
A re-occurrence of a calf injury to centre Dean Whare sees Will Smith return to a reshuffled Panther backline.

Smith will again play at fullback in Matt Moylan’s absence, with Watene-Zelezniak returning to play on the wing, with Waqa Blake named as Peta Hiku’s centre partner.

Peter Wallace has this time been named at hooker though is likely to interact with starting five-eighth Tyrone Peachey, who is expected to once again assume injured hooker James Segeyaro’s defensive responsibilities.

However with Griffin confirming that Blake (corked leg) is struggling to be match-fit, there are likely to be plenty of last-minute changes, with the coach confirming one of James Fisher-Harris or Leilani Latu will come onto the bench.

Griffin also confirmed boom Junior Kiwi five-eighth Te Maire Martin has trained with the side all week fuelling speculation that he will make his NRL debut, partnering Jamie Soward in the halves in what could see Tyrone Peachey partner Bryce Cartwright in the back-row and Isaah Yeo shifting to the centres, should Blake withdraw from the match as expected.

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The Broncos themselves have suffered a big blow, with in-form winger Corey Oates (shoulder) sidelined for at least the next month, with Round 1 debutant Greg Eden taking his place on the wing.

Analysis
The Broncos have the best defensive record so far in 2016, having only conceded 14 points to go with their club record of keeping opposition teams to under 20 points in 10 straight games.

The Panthers on the other hand are struggling to create points through the likes of Jamie Soward, Tyrone Peachey and Peter Wallace.

Penrith has scored just five tries to date and their inability to create opportunities was best exemplified last round, when Soward took an easy penalty goal to take Penrith’s eight point lead out to ten despite being camped on the Bulldogs’ try line for several sets.

The Panthers have struggled with halves who can run the ball.

Both Sezer and Mbye scored doubles against the Panthers and it doesn’t get any easier in trying to come up with a game-plan to shut down Brisbane’s Anthony Milford, whose impressive form even includes two field goals against his name so far in 2016.

Fatigue has been a problem for Penrith so far in 2016 given the demanding draw has seen the Panthers fade late in defence in the heat of Canberra and again against the Bulldogs on the back of a short recovery from that Canberra game.

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Having missed more tackles than any other side and conceding the second most penalties after two rounds, the Panthers have no excuses to improve on these two facets of their game with the nine-day turnaround ahead of this clash.

Penrith will also be hoping that former Panthers centre and new Broncos recruit James Roberts continues his quiet start to the season for at least another week, when he comes up against Peta Hiku, who with two tries from as many games, is in decent form.

Key match-ups
Peta Hiku vs James Roberts
Tyrone Peachey vs Anthony Milford
Trent Merrin vs Corey Parker
Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Sam McKendry vs Josh McGuire and Adam Blair

Key stats
Penrith are conceding 862 games of NRL experience to the Broncos, including nine players who have played less than 50 NRL games versus just four for the Broncos.

Brisbane have 13 players (Penrith just nine) back from the 2015 clash between these two teams, won – you guessed it – in the last minute, 8-5 by the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.

Overall Brisbane have won 30, lost 17 and drawn one against Penrith, but last won in Penrith in 2009.

Penrith’s home record against the Broncos stands at 11 wins, 11 losses with one drawn and in their last five meetings at home, the Panthers have won three, drawn one, lost one.

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Panthers recruit Trent Merrin in ten clashes against the Broncos has won just once, his worst winning record against any NRL club.

Peter Wallace plays his 50th NRL game for Penrith.

Penrith
1. Will Smith 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Peta Hiku 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Tyrone Peachey 7. Jamie Soward 8. Sam McKendry 9. Peter Wallace 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin.

Interchange: 14. Sitaleki Akauola 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Suaia Matagi 17. Elijah Taylor

Brisbane
1. Darius Boyd 2. Greg Eden 3. Jack Reed 4. James Roberts 5. Jordan Kahu 6. Anthony Milford 7. Ben Hunt 8. Josh McGuire 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Adam Blair 11. Alex Glenn 12. Matt Gillett 13. Corey Parker (c).

Interchange: 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Sam Thaiday 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kodi Nikorima.

Match officials
Referee: Grant Atkins.
Assistant Referee: Gavin Reynolds.
Touch Judges: Russell Turner and Kasey Badger.
Review Officials: Bryan Norrie and Jason Robinson.
Senior RO: Luke Patten.

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Stew’s view
Scary as it sounds, Penrith facing the competition favourites Brisbane this Saturday night might just be the challenge the Panthers need to get over the deflating losses of the first two weeks.

After all to be the best, you have to beat the best and there is arguably none better than the Broncos hence any lethargy from last Thursday’s loss has to be dealt with very swiftly.

Based on form, the Broncos are deserved favourites.

But with the Panthers sensing their season could quickly slip away should they lose in front of what should be a large home crowd, Penrith could just rise to the occasion on the back of a couple of ex-Broncos determined to show why they deserved better treatment than what they got in leaving Brisbane, with an upset on the cards.

Panthers by 4.

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