What a grand old race this is! It dates back to 1925, where the inaugural race was won by a horse called Night Patrol, who then went on to win the following year.
A further six horses have won the race on two occasions, but all of those pale in comparison to the great Manikato who strung together an amazing five wins in a row from 1979 to 1983.
More notable recent winners include Hareeba, Miss Andretti, Apache Cat and perhaps the greatest sprinter of all, Black Caviar. In 2003 the race was renamed the Australia Stakes to coincide with the Australia Day holiday.
It kept that title until 2011, when it was moved back to the month of March and resumed it’s original title.
Below are the last 13 winners with age, gender, barrier and estimated starting price.
• 2015: Lucky Hussler – 5g, (2), $12
• 2014: Spirit Of Boom – 6h, (8), $5.50
• 2013: Black Caviar – 6m, (6), $1.05
• 2012: Foxwedge – 3c, (1), $12
• 2011: Black Caviar – 4m, (6), $1.20
• 2010: Turffontein – 5h, (2), $7
• 2009: Apache Cat – 6g, (2), $7
• 2008: Apache Cat – 5g, (2), $2.10
• 2007: Miss Andretti – 5m, (5), $1.55
• 2006: Virage De Fortune – 3f, (9), $5
• 2005: Cape Of Good Hope – 7g, (7), $5.50
• 2004: Regimental Gal – 3f, (6), $2.75
• 2003: Yell – 3g, (1), $4.50
Pertinent statistics:
A) 13/13 had at least placed in a weight-for-age race or Group 1 sprint in the past.
B) 11/13 either won or placed last start.
C) 10/12 were in the first four horses during the race.
D) 10/13 had their last start in the Lightning Stakes, Newmarket Handicap or Patinack Farm Classic down the straight track at Flemington, all at Group 1 level. The only two exceptions were three-year-olds Virage De Fortune and Yell, and Lucky Hussler last year, but his last run was at Flemington in the Emirates Stakes at Group 1 level. 11/13 had their last start at Flemington.
E) 11/13 aged three, five, or six years of age. Strangely only four-year-old winner was Black Caviar and no four-year-old in the race this year.
F) 10/13 drew Barriers 1-6.
G) 9/13 started at $5.50 or less.
H) 8/13 were second or third up in their preparations.
I) 5/13 were a filly or mare.
J) 6/13 drew Barriers 1 or 2.
Historical contenders
Lucky Hussler, Flamberge, The Quarterback and Holler would appear to be the most likely winners from a historical perspective, although both Scarlet Billows (Group 1 and missed a place last start), and Japonisme (barrier and missed a place last start), were quite close up in Flemington straight races recently.
Holler has Barrier 7 but should manage to overcome that slightly awkward gate with his early speed. There is no conclusive historical standout, so perhaps some form of analysis is required to come to a decision on which horse is most likely to win.
Race tempo
Holler will almost certainly lead this race after doing so at his past three starts. Flamberge should be on his tail from Barrier 2 and Gregers will need to begin well to pursue her normal on speed position from Barrier 12.
Kinglike should hold an off pace position from a good barrier, and perhaps Headwater will get fired up early with blinkers on first time from an awkward barrier.
Japonisme is the hard horse to get a handle on. Does Hugh Bowman go forward from the outside barrier and add some pressure up front, or does he ease back and try to get some cover? What he does might have a massive bearing on who wins this race.
My prediction is there will be no loafing up front, which gives the off pace contingent their chance to shine late.
Analysis
1. Lucky Hussler
Looks suited in the race with a likely solid tempo, and he did win the race last year. He has one win and two placings from his three starts here and does always race well fresh.
Having said that though his record with three to five weeks between runs isn’t encouraging at 0-8, and that is the case here. He has drawn well and if the breaks go his way at the right time he is going to be the one to beat. He doesn’t represent much value at under $4 early, but if he gets to a slightly better quote then it might pay to invest.
2. Flamberge
Has drawn to win the race, and looks very well weighted against the likes of The Quarterback and Churchill Dancer. He gave The Quarterback 5.5 kilograms and a beating in the Oakleigh Plate and the latter was too good for Churchill Dancer in the Newmarket.
Admittedly he is a better horse first-up than second-up, and he is yet to win from four attempts here. He has run three placings though, comes in second-up, and off a win, all good historical precedents. He has met Lucky Hussler twice with the score one a piece.
Importantly though he beat Lucky Hussler at 1200 metres by 2.8 lengths in receipt of two kilograms, and the defeat came at an unsuitable (for him) 1400 metres. His record from barriers 1-3 reads 4-2/8, and it’s quite difficult to understand why he is $12 early. If he can handle a possible hot pace up front (doesn’t need to lead), and is ridden sensibly, he looks to have a great chance of winning.
3. The Quarterback
Looks good historically with the exception of his racing pattern, which is to get back. At weight for age it is hard to see him toppling either Flamberge or Lucky Hussler though and the big wide expanses of Flemington do seem to be his forte. If they go mad up front he will be storming home, but I can’t select him because the weights seem to be very much against him.
4. Fast ‘N’ Rocking
Is definitely one horse that could be suited at the weights here on his best form, but he has drawn awkwardly, and his run first-up in the Oakleigh Plate was a little disappointing. He doesn’t go that well when fresh though, and was stuck behind a wall of horses early in the straight there which didn’t help at all.
On face value blinkers being added here would seem a bonus, but three previous applications haven’t done the trick. His wide barrier is going to present problems, and his winning strike rate doesn’t scream back me in this. Michael Walker rides him well though, and this time last year he went down narrowly in the Oakleigh Plate second-up. A hot pace would suit, and he is at least a place chance if that ensues.
5. It Is Written
He is a track specialist who was only two lengths behind Lucky Hussler in this race last year. It’s hard to see him winning at Group 1 level though, and Barrier 9 does him no favours at all. He couldn’t get within 2.5 lengths of the three-year-old Holler in the Australia Stakes at this track in January, and it’s hard to see how he can here.
6. Churchill Dancer
Can make his presence felt in the race, but much like The Quarterback he isn’t weighted to win it. He was only beaten one length by Holler in the Australia Stakes off a less than ideal run in transit, but perhaps that horse has more upside? Hard to see how he can topple either Lucky Hussler and/or Flamberge, on their best form, but he is definitely a place hope from a decent barrier, and firm tracks and 1200 metres are his forte,
7. Gregers
Meets Flamberge three kilograms worse at the weights for her Oakleigh Plate defeat, and a wide barrier makes her task all the more difficult. Notably she is 4-2/7 on dead tracks, and 2-3/6 second-up, but another negative is her 0/6 with 22-61 days between runs.
8. Scarlet Billows
Is the stablemate to Lucky Hussler, and she isn’t without a hope here going on her fourth to Chatauqua in the Gilgai Stakes last Spring. Churchill Dancer was in that race too and she meets him one kilogram worse for narrowly beating him home.
That doesn’t suggest she is weighted well enough to beat the better chances in the race, but mares do go quite well in this race (second and third last year also), and she has the right barrier, and comes off a decent enough run at Flemington. She is also 2-1/3 here, all at this distance.
9. Japonisme
Was a bit disappointing in the Newmarket last start, but this is a step down in class, and he does meet the likes of Chautauqua and Churchill Dancer three kilograms better here, which should mean he beats both home.
Had he drawn better it would be hard to pick against him in this race, but heaven knows where he is going to get to from Barrier 11 of 12. On his spring three-year-old form he has the edge on both Holler and Headwater, being the only Group 1 winner of the trio.
He looks weighted to win and has the in-form Hugh Bowman going back aboard, but it will take an inspired ride to get him home first, at a track he is yet to set foot on. A midfield sit with some cover could really suit, off a fast pace that might eventuate.
10. Holler
Is two from two at this track and distance, Holler comes into this race in stellar form, considering he beat both Kermadec and First Seal last start at weight-for-age level in Sydney. That looks good form now after both ran well against Winx last Saturday, and he was also taken on early by Our Boy Malachi in that race.
Blinkers went on first time, and he was very strong on the line. Pleasing given a gut busting run at 1400, the start before at Caulfield, when he and Mahuta duelled in the lead. He seems to be the three-year-old that has improved the most in the past few months, and will take a lot of stopping here, especially if he can relax on the pace.
11. Headwater
Won well first-up down the straight, but pulled up a bit distressed last start in a failure at the same track and distance. Blinkers go on him for the first time, and if he does improve markedly it wouldn’t be the first time. Barrier 8 does him no favours though, and despite a respectable run in the Golden Slipper last year I’m doubting his 1200-metre credentials just slightly. Hard to have him in the top four or so chances.
12. Kinglike
Ran respectably first-up when runner-up to English in Sydney and that filly did run second in the Golden Slipper last year. He did win here at his only start and is two from two at this distance. Some of the form out of his last run has been franked in the Galaxy last week with fourth placed Shiraz running second. But both English (1st) and Boss Lane (3rd) ran below expectations, and I’m not sure if Shiraz would be highly favoured if he ran in this race (would meet him on similar weight terms).
He is the hardest horse to line up in this but looks quite good historically in his acid test to date. The early $8 price seems to be about right for him.
Conclusion
This is an awfully tough race to assess but I have no hesitation in selecting what I consider to be the value horse on top;
1. Flamberge (should be a lot less than $12)
2. Holler
3. Japonisme
4. Lucky Hussler
Bet suggestion
Flamberge each way all day, and perhaps Scarlet Billows is the big value in the race at $41. She should be about half that quote, and is also worth an each-way investment. A multi-play isn’t advisable, with so many I have left out capable of running at least a placing.
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