The last Melbourne Group 1 meeting of the 2015-16 racing year arrives tonight, to see us into the Easter break.
Being held on the same night as the launch of the AFL season, he meeting is going to struggle for cut-through but the feature race, the William Reid Stakes, has assembled a very handy field for a lower tier Group 1.
Last year’s winner of this race, Lucky Hussler, heads the market from a host of three-year-olds, and he’s well and truly earned his favouritism.
Since his victory in last year’s edition, he’s won a Toorak Handicap with 58kgs, finished close-up with top weight in the Emirates, handled a quality Magic Millions field with arrogance while carrying 60.5 kilograms, and only just failed to land the Orr Stakes when he came home like a hungry dog for dinner after being held up.
He’s more suited at the weight-for-age scale than any horse in the field, but there is a query over whether 1200m is his most suitable distance now.
Holler is the most favoured of the three-year-olds in the betting. He’s had three runs this prep for two victories against the older horses (both at weight for age, at Group 1 and Group 2 level), but failed against his own age group.
He’s proving to be something of a track specialist, being two from two at the Valley, and we know how some horses do put together strong records here. He’s going to be awfully hard to beat.
Japonisme, the Coolmore Stud winner in the spring, returned in brilliant style first-up, nosed out of the Lightning by Chautauqua and Terravista.
Dropping three kilograms from that run into the Newmarket, he was a popular pick there but couldn’t get the job done after having every chance to do so. He’ll push over from a wide gate and likely share the speed with Holler. He has the class.
The Quarterback won the Newmarket after putting the writing on the wall in the Oakleigh Plate, giving trainer Robbie Griffiths his first Group 1. He steps up to WFA racing now, but he’s consistent and in hot form. It’s a good combination, and you’ll get some value about him again.
A few horses are actually coming from the Oakleigh Plate, which is proving to be a white-hot form race. The Quarterback and Griante have since won Group 1s, and four of the first five home in last week’s Galaxy came from that race.
Flamberge was the Oakleigh Plate winner, with all possible honours going to him after racing wide from a bad gate. He’s as tough as they come, and has won two Group 1s at $31 and $21. But we’ll all let him under our guard again.
Fast N Rocking was OK first-up in the same race, but usually gets better as his campaign progresses. He was a close and unlucky third in the Oakleigh Plate last year when second-up though, and his Manikato Stakes run from the spring nearly takes this out. He’s huge value at $26.
Gregers wasn’t good enough behind Flamberge first-up, and it feels like she’ll need mares grade to record another victory, if her winning days aren’t done already.
Churchill Dancer is the third runner from the Hayes and Dabernig stable, to go with Fast N Rocking and Gregers, and he’s been in super recent form, not far behind Holler in the Australia Stakes and The Quarterback in the Newmarket. He’ll run well again, but does he quite have the quality to win at weight for age? It’s doubtful, but he might.
Could Kinglike deliver Peter Moody one last Group 1, to provide a fitting finale to a champion trainer and great character of the racing game? He’s good enough to, and has still only had the five career starts. He’ll win a race at the highest level before his time is done.
Headwater can be hard to catch, and we still need convincing that 1200m is his go. It Is Written has been around longer than Moonee Valley itself, but races extremely well here as we know. He’s the outsider, but could add value to first fours, especially given how often these races prove to be a blanket finish.
Lastly, Scarlett Billows won’t be given much time by punters, but she has a sensational record at the Valley 1200m, and last spring in the Gilgai was less than a length and a half behind Chautauqua and Delectation, and in front of Churchill Dancer. There are worse horses to have a 40-1 nibble at.
Holler and Japonisme should settle one-two at no more than an even tempo, and there is every chance those two will keep going to fight out the race.
Flamberge, The Quarterback and Griante have won the last three sprint Group 1s this season. All are honest, consistent horses that are underrated, and won those races at big odds. I wonder if the trend might continue, and if so, it might just be Fast N Rocking’s turn.
Selections
1. Fast N Rocking
2. Holler
3. Japonisme
4. Lucky Hussler
The William Reid is supported by the Group 2 Sunline Stakes, where the class of Fenway should prevail. If not, Metaphorical is the odds runner to have. She ran a strong second in the Matron Stakes last start, especially given she was eight weeks between starts, and should improve significantly for the run.
Elsewhere on the card, Thames Court looks a great bet at the each-way cut in Race 4. She had good form around top fillies like Badawiya, Don’t Doubt Mamma, Sacred Eye, Silent Sedition and My Popette in the spring, and returned in dominant style first-up to get that winning feeling.
Jumping up from 1200m to 1600m in ten days is unusual enough to inspire confidence that it won’t be a hinderance. She did have two trials before that first-up win, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
