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Ahoy Roarers! The focus will be on Sydney at Rosehill this Saturday for the Group 1 double, starting off with the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m).
I like horses in Group 1 races that are on the back up, so I’ll lean with Jameka. Her effort last Saturday in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) was full of merit when third to the Derby winner Tarzino.
Back to her own sex now, gate one and with Damien Oliver aboard, Jameka should get the run of the race from the good draw. And if the rain comes, that will be no issue because she trounced her rivals on a heavy track in the Oaks during the spring.
The big threat is Risque. She was excellent in the Australian Guineas (1600m) when third to Palentino after covering ground and she was four weeks between runs. Should be noted that in that race, she was comfortably holding Jameka on the line, pulling away late from that filly. She is a query at the trip, but her brilliance may just offset that.
The filly that will relish the extra trip is Honesta, who comes through the Kembla Grange Classic (1600m) where she ran fourth to Single Gaze. On face value, the run doesn’t fill you with confidence, but the tempo was against her and she couldn’t really build momentum, which is her go. I think that should eventuate here, and she did run second to Jameka in the Oaks, yet she is five times the price of Jameka here.
A cracking field has been assembled for the BMW (2400m), where I am going with another horse on the seven-day back-up, Mongolian Khan. Didn’t set the world on fire first-up in the Chipping Norton (1600m) before trialling well. He then went to the Ranvet (2000m) last Saturday and though he only ran fifth to The United States, he was warming up late and ran through the line strongly.
Mongolian Khan did something similar in the Caulfield Stakes before backing up seven days later to win the Caulfield Cup. The speed map indicates he could roll forward and dictate if Opie desires, though he is better when he has something to chase. Nonetheless, I’ll be in his corner.
A beaut steer from Bowman got Preferment home last time out in the Australian Cup (2000m), wearing down Awesome Rock despite interference to eventually win the race in the stewards room. Third-up at 2400m back on his home track looks a lovely recipe, and I can only see upside with this horse. The tempo is the query again, but as we saw last start, he can sit on speed and still produce his best. Deserved favourite.
The horse who could appreciate the slow tempo is Rising Romance. She ran third in the Australian Cup and really had every chance to do that given the farcical speed of the race where nothing changed their position, like a Formula One race. She’ll sit just off the speed, will do no work from the gate and one thing she does have compared to most of these is a turn of foot.
In other races at Rosehill:
. Dragon Flyer, with better luck, can win the opener.
. Moqueen looks hard to beat in the two year old race.
. Centre Pivot, back at Rosehill, can improve sharply in the Neville Selwood.
. Malaguerra looks the horse to beat in the Star Kingdom, but big watch on Target In Sight.
. Balmain Boy looks the big overs in the Tulloch.
. Badawiya looks just about a good thing in the Emancipation.
. Excess Knowledge WILL be winning the Doncaster Prelude.
Best bet of the day: Rosehill, Race 9, Excess Knowledge
I’ll talk more in depth about this horse. His effort first-up in the Ajax (1500m) was an absolute beauty when second to It’s Somewhat given he was first-up since running in the Melbourne Cup and he closed off very strongly. Should only improve off that, draws well, McEvoy remains on and looks extremely well suited at the weights. Already been well backed, and really, only bad luck will beat him.
Trial Watch: Rosehill, Race 9, Beaten Up
I am not sure he can win, but he has been trialling as well as anything in recent times, which is remarkable given he is a stayer and is at the ripe age of eight. Heading towards the Carnival up north, but he draws well with Bowman aboard and I will be shocked if he doesn’t sprint well fresh.
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