The first day of The Championships at Randwick is upon us, with four big Group 1s to be run.
The Doncaster is the main feature on the card, and we’ll get to that tomorrow along with the Australian Derby, but today we’ll look at the TJ Smith and Sires Produce.
The TJ Smith Stakes has quickly gained momentum to become the premier sprint race in Australia, taking the mantle from the VRC Classic at Flemington in Cup week. Both are run over 1200 metres at weight for age, but the Randwick race is worth $1.5 million more than the Melbourne edition.
The TJ Smith also benefits from being run in the autumn, when we are more likely to see some three-year-olds take their place.
One such three-year-old is the favourite, Exosphere, who heads the market despite only having one Group 1 to his name, the Golden Rose back in September, and not having won a race in six months.
Of course, Exosphere’s failures at his last two starts were down the Flemington straight, which trainer John O’Shea has vowed he will never be exposed to again. We’ve seen this powerfully built sprinter produce some awesome trial performances, and it’s time for him to bring it on game-day now.
Some believe him to be the world’s best sprinter, in talent if not yet in feats, so hopefully we get to see his best on Saturday.
Chautauqua currently holds the title of the best sprinter in Australia, and is the defending champ in this race.
In seven starts since his TJ Smith victory last year, he has four wins (two at Group 1 level) and three Group 1 placings, where he’s been beaten by a combined 1.7 lengths. His overall Group 1 record stands at 8: 3-3-2.
We know he’ll get back. We know he’ll blaze home. And we know that if he’s in the finish, which he’s sure to be, then it will have been another exciting race.
English is on the third line of betting behind the two favourites. I was prepared to declare her a false favourite in the Galaxy two weeks ago, and she’s better suited here at weight for age than she was under handicap conditions.
Barrer 14 wasn’t her friend last time, and won’t be here either. She won’t be able to win if she goes right back again, and I can’t see a way for her to beat them all.
There are seven others in this field that are coming from the Galaxy.
Terravista is obviously the most talented of these, but every second run of his seems to be a flop these days. That means he’s due this time though, and if he can bring his A-game at a course that is by far his favourite, he can win.
Shiraz and Fell Swoop will run well again, as they always do, but the class will find them out as winning hopes. Dothraki is itching to win an easier race.
Two horses are backing up from last weeks William Reid, the winner Flamberge and Fast N Rocking who ran his usual great race at the level without saluting. The former will run well again at big odds after finding a nice spot in transit, while the latter is the best of the bolters.
Delectation is back racing in Sydney after his last five starts have all been down the Flemington straight. Given that one of those was a weight-for-age win over Chautauqua, Terravista, Flamberge and Buffering, it’s fair to say he’s a chance if he can re-discover that form, but he was very poor in the Newmarket.
Our Boy Malachi is the other notable in the race, and is at that awkward in-between stage where he’s not well weighted in either handicaps or weight-for-age races. He needs to find a lesser grade Group 1, like the Goodwood in Adelaide or the BTC Cup in Brisbane, a race in which he ran third last year.
For a high quality sprint affair, this race isn’t blessed with many natural speedsters. Our Boy Malachi should be given his head up front, with a number of horses looking to box seat behind him. All eyes will be on James McDonald on Exosphere from his cushy gate four, who won’t want to find the fence nor get too far back.
Selections
1. Exosphere
2. Chautauqua
3. Delectation
4. Fast N Rocking
When it comes to the Sires Produce, all eyes usually turn to the Golden Slipper, to find the fast-finishing horse that is screaming out for 1400 metres. Teleperion and Yankee Rose fit this mould, and are equal favourites accordingly.
While sound in theory (after all, why wouldn’t you look to the best two-year-old race in the country as a form reference?) six of the last ten Sires Produce winners have actually bypassed the Slipper in order to take this race out.
And of the four Sires winners to come from the Slipper in the last ten years, only two, Guelph in 2013 and Sebring in 2008, were horses that ran on significantly from back in the Slipper field.
Yankee Rose was enormous to run second first-up in the Slipper, a remarkable training feat. It also means she should have plenty left to go on with it now as she attacks the Sires/Champagne double.
The similarities to Guelph are stark, as that powerhouse filly ran a first-up fourth in the Slipper before winning both the Sires and Champagne.
Teleperion was a good rough tip in the Slipper and put in an amazing run after going right back to last from a wide barrier. We know James McDonald will give him a gem from a good gate.
Good Standing is the other horse from the Slipper, where more was expected. He was only second-up there after a solid first-up win, and can be in the race.
Yankee Rose beat the other two in separate races back in the spring, if that means anything now they’ve had four or five months more seasoning.
Zamzam is the only horse representing the other major two-year-old race of the season, the Blue Diamond. She was a long way behind Extreme Choice and Flying Artie in third on that occasion, but came out and franked the form with a black type win at Moonee Valley where she didn’t have it all her own way.
The quinella from the VRC Sires Produce, Seaburge and Detective, are here, three weeks between runs. They both continue to improve, and are in the right hands, as David Hayes and Peter Snowden are master trainers of juveniles.
Outside these two, the only other horse in the field with 1400-metre experience is Attention, backing up from the Ballieu. He beat Prized Icon there, which ties him in with Teleperion and thus the other Slipper runners.
The Pago Pago and Magic Night are two other races where runners often come from for this, particularly if they don’t run in the Golden Slipper.
Chimboraa almost got the job done at $71 in the Pago Pago, but this is a tough race to break a maiden in.
In the Magic Night, Omei Sword accelerated well over the concluding stages, emerging from the ruck with a big run. She’ll be hard to beat here. Faraway Town put in more of a grinding effort in the same race, but will strip fitter. She split Yankee Rose and Teleperion back in October, and appeals as the best roughie in the race.
Don’t discount Rivo Boy at 100-1 off a Kembla Grange third either, if only because we’ve all seen Anthony Cummings pull off upsets like this in his time. Sparkle comes from the same race, and has the Waterhouse/Berry combination to recommend her, but is hard to make a case for.
Selections
1. Yankee Rose
2. Omei Sword
3. Teleperion
4. Faraway Town
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