Race 9 at Randwick on Saturday (5.10pm AEDT) sees the running of the 2016 Doncaster Mile.

It certainly earns it’s title as ‘time honoured’ given it was first staged at Randwick racecourse in 1866.

Its Spring equivalent – The Epsom handicap, run at the same venue and distance – is actually one year older. Both provide a great spectacle, with capacity fields (potentially 20 runners maximum) run at a spacious track, which tends to give every horse a winning chance.

More often than not wide barriers are actually more of a benefit than a hindrance, and backmarkers quite often prevail as a result of the testing uphill rise in the long Randwick straight.

Punters almost always get value odds on their selection, given the size of the field, and the quality on display. It also pays to keep a close watch on the early April weather in Sydney too.

It often rains and there is plenty of it! That has been the case in four of the past eight editions, so basing your form analysis around wet track runners, can, and has proved fruitful.

Below are the last 13 winners of the race followed by Age, Gender, Barrier, Weight carried and starting price.

• 2015 Kermadec 3c (16) 51kg $8
• 2014 Sacred Falls 4h (13) 56.5kg $10
• 2013 Sacred Falls 3c (4) 53kg $21
• 2012 More Joyous 5m (10) 57.5kg $3.75
• 2011 Sacred Choice 5m (14) 52kg $8
• 2010 Rangirangdoo 5g (10) 55.5kg $6
• 2009 Vision And Power 6g (12) 52kg $11
• 2008 Triple Honour 3g (6) 51kg $7.50
• 2007 Haradasun 4h (1) 53kg $4.25
• 2006 Racing To Win 3g 51kg (12) $4.50
• 2005 Patezza 5g (16) 54.5kg $21
• 2004 Private Steer 4m (13) 53kg $4
• 2003 Grand Armee 3g (5) 51.5kg $13

Pertinent statistics
A) 13/13 had their previous start at Rosehill. Nine of those were in either the George Ryder (1500m), or the Ranvet Stakes (2000m), both of which are Weight for Age races
B) Chris Waller has trained five of the past eight winners, and Gai Waterhouse seven of the past 22 winners. Combined they have produced 12 of the past winners 22 winners (54.5%) of the race
C) 12/13 winners have dropped 2.5kg or more. This is not a surprising statistic, given most horses have carried higher weights in WFA races at their previous start, and the three year old horses drop weight too, given they are meeting older horses at Group 1 level, in a handicap. The average winning weight drop is 4kg during this period.
D) 11/13 finished in the first four placings last start
E) 9/13 have carried 53kg or less, and 22 of the last 35 (63%) winners also had that attribute
F) 12/13 have been aged between 3 and 5
G) 9/13 drew barrier 10 or wider
H) 12/13 aged 3-5.
I) Glen Boss has ridden the winner of the race six times.

The average winning price over this period is $9.50 (app).

Race tempo
We should get a truly run race with Turn Me Loose, Equador and Vergara likely to bid for the lead, with Stratum Star and possibly Good Project just behind them ensuring there will be no loafing up front. When we do get a decent speed in the Randwick mile races, the midfield and backmarker types generally prevail, and that might be the case here.

Analysis
It’s disappointing not to see a three year old in the race this year given their excellent overall record in the race.

Press Statement and Palentino looked a likely pairing that would have given it a mighty shake, and we don’t have a capacity field either which is not the norm for this race.

Maybe the presence of Winx has had that great an effect, but there are still very capable lowly weighted horses, who promise to make this an interesting and competitive race.

I’ll preview what I feel to be the better chances in the race, given history, current form, and the possibility of a wet track.

As I write this, the track is currently rated a Heavy 8 but no inclement weather is forecast in the next few days. I’d be expecting a much firmer track to avail itself on Saturday, but the eventual rating would be too much of a guess at this stage.

#1 Kermadec
Hard to believe he was number 22 in this race last year and only scratchings enabled him to gain a start and eventually win in quite comfortable fashion.

He has only won once since but it was at Group 1 level in the George Main Stakes giving him a 2-2-0/4 record at this track and distance.

He is going to meet Winx 1.5kg better for a 1.5 length deficit in the George Ryder Stakes last start and that is going to make him very competitive.

The wetter the track the better for him but it does look as though he will at least get some give in the surface which is a bonus.

His weight doesn’t look ideal from a historical perspective, but there are no other significant negatives unless his inside barrier proves awkward (would prefer him drawn wider perhaps). He is going to make his presence felt for sure.

#3 Winx
Is approaching Champion status (if not already), having won eight starts in succession. It doesn’t seem that long ago when she started that winning sequence, screaming home from the rear to win the Sunshine Coast Guineas at this distance, before a similarly dominant performance in the QTC Oaks.

From there she has gone from strength to strength, and you have to be impressed by her ability to now stalk the leaders and get the job done in equally devastating fashion. The only real negative for her in this race is the amount of weight she has to concede to some decent horses on the limit weight.

Do they have the ability to bridge the divide in class that she possesses? The 56.5kg she has been allocated shouldn’t present a problem and it compares favourably to the 57.5kg that super mare More Joyous carried to win in 2012.

That year was a 52kg limit though compared to the 50kg here so in essence it’s perhaps akin to her having to carry 58.5kg in comparison.

She did win on a Heavy 9 track as three year old (first up from a spell), and her mother was actually a wet track specialist winning five of her seven starts on Slow to Heavy tracks.

Her last start on a wet track was a 2.5L defeat on a slow surface in the ATC Oaks at 2400m last Autumn, before she really hit her straps.

She is the one they all have to beat, but odds on is just no value whatsoever in my opinion. I think her real price is about $2.40 but I doubt we will see that.

#6 First Seal
Has met Winx six times and beaten her on five occasions, but all those wins were before the real Winx stood up, and she was left 4.7 lengths astern of the great mare in the Ryder Stakes two weeks ago.

That was a little bit disappointing from her perspective, and she has appeared to be a little ‘flat’ at her past two starts since winning first up. She gets Blinkers applied here though, and does meets Winx 3.5kg better for that last meeting.

Those two factors could be the key to her turning the tables, and perhaps she will be ridden a little quieter than last start where she was right on the pace. A wet track might also be advantageous despite a failure the last time she appeared on one (last run before a spell last preparation).

She has a pleasing 3-3/6 record from barriers 1-3, so perhaps some cover in the race will see her produce her best. Definitely a major player in this race if she finds her best form.

#7 Volkstok’n’Barrell
Leave him out out of calculations at your peril. He comes off two consecutive Group 1 race wins in New Zealand and carries 6.5kg less than he would in Weight for Age race.

In effect he meets Winx 6.5kg better than if he met her under that weight scale, and Kermadec 4.5kg better. His Autumn in Sydney last year was excellent, but he couldn’t get near that form in the Spring.

The interesting thing about that factor is that he has a far better record in the Sydney direction (7-4/11), opposed to the Melbourne way (1-0/7), and is three wins from four starts at this distance.

I can’t remember a horse winning a Randwick Group 1 mile straight from New Zealand, but he does have the advantage of having run a close third in an AJC Derby at this track, and he handles all surfaces, wet or dry. He adds some further interest into the race and is twice the odds he should be at $21.

#8 Good Project
Is the third of the Chris Waller horses and the least fancied of the trio. He has some claims being a Group 1 winner at this distance (albeit in Perth) off a similar weight drop.

Those who are fans of the up and coming horse Malaguerra (won six of his last seven starts) might be aware that this horse gave him 4.5kg at Flemington in November and was only beaten two lengths. His first up run this preparation two starts ago was a good effort, and although disappointing last start, he can run better here with 5.5kg less weight, and he has won a barrier trial in preparation.

His second up statistics read poorly at 0/5 and coming in here third up off a 21 day break looks perfect for him. He has won three of his four starts at this distance, and two of those have been here at Randwick.

A wet track probably isn’t in his favour, but on a dry surface he might get first crack at the leaders in the straight and take some running down. Definite place claims and has some hope of winning at $26 odds.

#10 Happy Clapper
He had won six of his past seven starts before he started this preparation, with the only defeat being on a Heavy 9 track which wasn’t at all suitable. His win in the Villiers here at this track and distance last December was very impressive, and his first up run at Weight For Age this preparation was an ominous warning for his opposition in this race.

His beaten margin last start in the Ryder is a slight concern for historical devotees, but he did enough to suggest he can win this.

The big things in his favour are that he meets Winx 8kg better for a 5.5 length deficit, will be better suited at Randwick, and at this distance. He has a 9kg weight drop from last start, and should appreciate a truly run race.

He probably doesn’t want to be conceding the likes of Winx too much of a start, but he should get his chance to run the leaders down in the straight.

His nemesis could be a track rated a Slow 6 track or worse, but his current $13 odds is ridiculous value. He is a $7 chance at best with that weight turnaround and recent good form.

#11 Azkadellia
Is definitely the number one pick in this race on a historical basis, and she has the bonus of having Glen Boss on board to pilot. She also has a Heavy track win to her credit on debut, and a young trainer (Ciaron Maher) that knows how to win Group 1 races.

She ran a nice second in the Coolmore Classic last start, and it’s interesting that the overall time in that race was over a second superior to that of Winx in the George Ryder a week later, at the same track, on a similar surface.

That day she carried 53kg and Winx lumped 57kg. In this race the weight differential is 6.5kg in the favour of this mare, so she has to be at least some chance of beating Winx home in this race.

She has only missed a place once in a 12 start career (5 wins), and gives every indication that the big stretches at Randwick will suit, opposed to the tighter circuit at Rosehill last start. At $10 she is also significant value and is very hard to go past.

#12 He Or She
This former Perth galloper has to be rated a decent hope on his win last start in the Blamey Stakes at Flemington.

He beat a subsequent Group 1 winner there (The United States), and meets Stratum Star 2kg better for beating him home one length in that race. Blinkers have only been on for three starts and the last start win is a positive sign that they are an asset.

He looks excellent historically despite the fact he is having his first right handed track start. That factor and a wet track possibility have me concerned, but he can’t be totally ignored at a healthy $21 price, at probably his ideal distance.

#13 Rudy
Meets Kermadec 6.5kg better for a three-length defeat in this race last year on a wet track. Given similar track conditions this year he has to be considered a chance, and Blinkers going back on for this race could also spark the improvement required for him to be competitive.

He drew close to the inside last year which probably wasn’t the place to be, but this year a wide barrier could actually be an asset to him.

Given the fact he is a big horse his weight carrying record above 57.5kg (2/21) beggars belief, and below that weight his record reads 5 wins from 11, so I see the 50kg he carries here as a bonus.

Backing up from a placing in the prelude last week is a repeat of last year, so he might not have to improve too much on that effort to be a winning chance. Female Group 1 winning jockey Tegan Harrison rides, and although she hasn’t ridden him for quite some time, she is 2-1/4 aboard.

Another one who is in the mix at a silly price of $51 or better.

Summing up
Hopefully I haven’t left out the winner above. Below are how I would rate my top four in three different categories.

Historically
1. Azkadellia
2. Happy Clapper
3. Volkstok’N’Barrell
4. Winx

On a Slow 6 track or worse
1. Azkadellia
2. Rudy
3. Kermadec
4. Winx

Analytically, given no worse than a Dead 5 track
1. Volkstok’n’Barrell
2. Happy Clapper
3. Azkadellia
4. Winx

I have to go for the value once again in this race. Volkstok’N’Barrell could be the real surprise packet given he is a Weight For Age winner dropping 6.5kg under that scale. Being a triple Group 1 winner he seems to have got into this race at least a couple of kilos light, and how can you ignore these factors when he is priced at $23 or better?

Happy Clapper is the going to be hard to beat if he gets a decent surface. I like the weight turnaround he gets from last start on a number of the WFA horses, and he should enjoy getting to Randwick.

Azkadellia picks herself historically and otherwise, and how have I left the great mare out of the placings? She is just a superstar and may well prove it again here.

I just can’t recommend backing her at the cramped odds with so much quality down in the weights. The race doesn’t end there as indicated by the analysis above.

Suggestion
If you like backing double figure chances this is the race for you. I think the top three mentioned above are all great Each Way value at double figure odds, and Rudy also demands attention at $51 if there is significant give in the track.

Boxing the first four above might also provide a nice reward.

I’m not sure I have ever previewed a handicap race with so many well-credentialed lighter weighted horses, at good value prices.

Can Winx stave them all off and really stamp herself as a one of the best horses we have seen in the past decade or so?

I think if she does win she deserves the highest of accolades. This is a fabulous renewal and one that most punters will be looking forward to as a spectacle. I can’t wait for it to come around!