Ahoy Roarers! The grand finals of Australian racing are finally here – The Championships.
It all begins this Saturday at Randwick where we see a bumper ten-race card, with four majors, most notably the Doncaster Mile (1600m) where Winx dominates the betting. I’ll go through the majors in race card order.
I’ll start off the preview by saying I am basing these on a soft five/soft six surface. The first Group 1 is the Inglis Sires (1400m), where I am sticking fat with Yankee Rose (8).
I was keen on her at a price when she resumed in the Slipper and it took a brilliant colt to beat her. I can only see upside with her and I am filled with confidence that Zac Purton was keen to stick with her straight after the Slipper effort.
Outside Yankee Rose, the best run of the beaten brigade was clearly Telperion (1), who was outstanding in running fourth despite ducking and weaving throughout the straight. He was three weeks between runs and now the stable rider goes aboard, so I can understand why he is near the top of the betting. The negative is the form from his first-up win hasn’t stood up at all.
If we do get a wet track, Faraway Town (10) looks the good overs in the race. She resumed in the Magic Night (1200m) and closed off strongly from near last to run fifth to Calliope. Her form from the summer was very good, and take note she was one of only a couple to make up ground on Capitalist in the Magic Millions on a day where it was impossible to run on. Bred to swim, and won on debut on a heavy track, so given the surface will be right up her alley.
The BMW Australian Derby (2400m) looks at the mercy of Tarzino (1). He looks the obvious and the good thing on the program after his brilliant win in the traditional lead up, the Rosehill Guineas (2000m). He made his run in the inferior ground yet was the best through the line. Nothing from that race will turn the tables on him here and I think only bad luck can beat him. Wet will be no issue either.
The main, and perhaps only threat is the Godolphin galloper Tally (4), who comes here after blitzing Palentino, Tarzino’s Australian Guineas conqueror, in the Alister Clark (2040m) at the Valley a couple of weeks ago. Not sure about the depth outside Palentino and Charlevoix, but you had to be impressed by the way he sprinted clear and charged through the line. That win was on a soft six, so he’ll handle a rain affected track here and appears as though he will eat up the 2400 metres.
The horse to watch at a price is Torgersen (6), who was very good in defeat last Saturday in the Tulloch (2000m) behind Old North, a stablemate of Tally. He had to make a long run from the back yet was still finishing off and I don’t think coming extremely wide was the place to be at Rosehill that afternoon. I love Chris Waller horses on the seven-day back-up and now that he has found decent form, he can be competitive.
Chautauqua or Exosphere in the TJ Smith (1200m)? I am a fan of going with the horse that has the runs on the board hence why I am putting Chautauqua (1) on top. He was out of this world to win the Lightning (1000m) fresh before the weight beat him in the Newmarket (1200m), where the form has been high class since. He overcame a double bias to win this race 12 months and he is going much better this time around. Tommy Berry back on can only be a positive too.
Exosphere (14) is the favourite, largely on reputation. The win in the Golden Rose (1400m) was suspect given Press Statement was desperately unlucky and would have threatened, and he beat up a pretty ordinary bunch, outside Japonisme, in the Roman Consul. Failed in the Coolmore behind that horse then resumed and was beaten in the Lightning (1000m) off the back of Black Caviar-like trials. He has done something similar in the trials since, is back in his territory, on a soft gate… he is all hype at the moment. He needs to stand up. And he gets his chance.
The forgotten horse for mine is Terravista (4). Pilot error beat him in the Lightning (1000m) before running in the Galaxy (1100m), where he was very poor behind Griante, so much so that Bowman has jumped off to ride a horse who was beaten nine lengths in the Newmarket. If he is right, he can give this a shake, and he doesn’t deserve to be a $15 pop.
The best is saved for last – the Star Doncaster Mile (1600m). There are two horses I like outside Winx and I have had to split them. I am on the Happy Clapper (10) band wagon. His two runs, both at weight for age, have been outstanding, starting off behind Holler in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) before a closing fifth to Winx in the George Ryder (1500m).
He meets Winx eight kilograms better off at the weights, and interesting to note that in his Villiers win, he ran quicker time in inferior ground compared to Winx and her Epsom win. He is the silly odds in the race and I am convinced he will run a beauty. I just wish the track was firm.
The obvious is Winx (3), and after the race is over, we might be thinking that the $2 was luxurious. Could not have been more impressive in winning the George Ryder, being ridden out of her comfort zone and chasing a hot speed yet drew clear and was getting away from her rivals on the line. Champion mares successfully do what she is about to attempt.
If all things are right, she probably wins, but to take odds on for a horse in the best mile race in Australia, every box has to be ticked, and the weight pull against Happy Clapper is the only box not ticked.
The knockout horse is one of my favourites, Azkadellia (11). She produced some once-in-a-generation efforts in the spring before being spelled. Got a good win at Caulfield two-back despite sitting wide and pulling before going to the Coolmore Classic (1500m) where she beat all bar Peeping.
The big key for her is a track with give in it, because she improves a couple of lengths. Bossy is on, and he knows a thing or two about winning a Doncaster, and this mare is yet to have her grand final yet, there is upside.
In other races on the program at Randwick:
. El Divino looks smart and can win the Kindergarten.
. Tatoosh looks a great each-way bet in the Carbine Club.
. Libran to stamp his Sydney Cup credentials and win the Chairmans.
. Clearly Innocent to win the Country Championship, though big watch on Not A Shadow if it’s a wet track.
. Egyptian Symbol to finally breakthrough in the PJ Bell.
. Alittle Loose to get into the Oaks by winning the Adrian Knox.
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