Day 1 of The Championships draws ever nearer, and the excitement is palpable. Four big Group 1s across a range of age groups, distances and weight conditions.
The best of the best coming together to see who can be declared the premier horse of their time or age.
Yesterday we looked at the TJ Smith Stakes and Sires Produce, and today it’s The Doncaster Mile and Australian Derby.
What to make of a Doncaster that hasn’t drawn a capacity field or any three-year-olds, but does possess the one current undisputed star of the turf in this country?
Winx is now two weeks shy of being undefeated for an entire 12 month period, and is looking to record her ninth victory in that time. It’s hardly as if she’s been avoiding the racetrack! (Hello Exosphere, which has run twice in six months.)
Well done to Chris Waller for continuing to put her out there and challenge the record she’s building.
The great mare now has five Group 1s to her name, and it’s been pleasing to see her go on with it this autumn after some doubters (hello Cam Rose) wondered how much the rail bias on Cox Plate day contributed to her stunning win in that event.
To be able to pull off Epsom and Doncaster wins either side of the Cox Plate would be a remarkable feat, and she could then go into the Queen Elizabeth without a blot on her record in the previous year.
So, who can beat her?
Waller has thrown up a couple of stablemates, including last year’s Doncaster winner, Kermadec.
Kermadec is a consistent Group 1 horse, but not an outstanding one, and he has run well without threatening to win so far this campaign.
He has a few things in his favour though – he meets Winx 1.5 kilograms better for being 1.5 lengths behind her in the George Ryder. His two Group 1 wins have both been at the Randwick 1600m on wet tracks, and he is something of a third-up specialist, with two wins (including the Group 1 George Main) and a fourth when he should have won the Australian Guineas.
The third Waller horse, Good Project, won the Group 1 Railway Stakes in Perth where you can tie him into Winx’s Epsom if you like. He’s also got Malaguerra form, so David Gately might be interested.
Thinking on the Epsom, Ecuador ran second to her that day, and he is in the field too, but only filling a role as token Gai Waterhouse runner, and nothing more. His last start was in the Newcastle Newmarket run at Rosehill a fortnight ago, where Aomen also competed.
That horse has no hope in this either.
Back to the George Ryder, which is always the key form reference for ‘the Donnie’. Outside of the Winx/Kermadec quinella, three others from the race are here.
Turn Me Loose and First Seal were both disappointing in the George Ryder, with the former leading as he liked but dropping out a long way from home, and the latter ridden too close to the speed, given her best performances have been from the back of the field.
Turn Me Loose has to carry half a kilo more here than he did to win the Emirates, having won the Futurity Stakes since then. He needs to be ridden aggressively in front to be given his best chance.
First Seal gets a nice 3.5-kilogram weight pull from Winx from the George Ryder, has had blinkers applied for the first time, and she’ll appreciate a big field and genuine tempo. There’s a strong chance the Doncaster could be a mares trifecta, and she’ll be a part of that if barrier one isn’t too big a disadvantage.
Happy Clapper is the weight horse out of the George Ryder, dropping a massive 8.5 kilograms and meeting Winx nine kilograms better off for the five-length defeat. Regular Roar readers will know our man Adam Page has been all over him for this race for a while now.
Although a five-year-old, he’s only had 14 starts and refuses to run a bad race. This is his distance, and it might be his time.
The Doncaster Prelude didn’t really live up to its name this year, given only one horse is backing up from it into the race. Rudy is that horse, and it’s been a while since he greeted the judge ahead of all others. Running a place at odds is more his go these days, but any sort of deluge helps him more than most.
Four horses with most of their form in Melbourne are also in the reckoning.
Azkadellia is the most fancied of these, and will saddle up as second-elect behind Winx. She’s almost the mare equivalent of Chautauqua in the way she gets back and charges home, leaving her supporters short of breath and long on heart palpitations.
Azkadellia had every chance to win the Coolmore Classic last start and get her Group 1, but was beaten fair and square by Peeping. She may need to be ridden even colder than she was there, and saved for one run. She has plenty to recommend her though – 50 kilograms on her back, the memory of her Myer Classic run the last time she was at the mile, and Glen Boss on board.
Bow Creek comes from the Australian Cup off a little freshen. He was given no chance in that race due to a conservative ride and the slow pace, but he ran well despite the lack of tempo.
We’ve seen the best of his acceleration a couple of times in this country, on his Australian debut in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate day, and when he won the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield earlier this prep. There’s no doubting his talent, and he can give them something to think about if he brings his A-game.
He or She and Stratum Star come from the Blamey Stakes, where they ran first and third respectively. The second placed horse there, The United States, has since won the Ranvet Stakes at Group 1 weight for age, so these two look well placed as value runners.
He or She is still improving with every run in his career, and should run a race with only 50 kilograms on his back. He gets four kilograms off Turn Me Loose from the Emirates, where he went down by 2.5 lengths.
Stratum Star is a Group 1 handicap winner, and has twice placed at Group 1 WFA, including two starts back in the Futurity behind Turn Me Loose. He meets that horse a couple of kilos better for that close defeat but meets He or She worse at the weights for running behind him in the Blamey.
The x-factor of the field is Volstok’n’barrell, coming off two Group 1 wins in New Zealand. We never saw the best of the 2015 Rosehill Guineas winner in the Melbourne spring. While he’s never dropped back in distance in a campaign before, he does look attractively weighted with 52.5 kilograms for a three-time Group 1 winner.
Turn Me Loose should run them along, with Ecuador coming across from 14 and the mare Vergara not far away. Stratum Star won’t be far behind them, and Good Project may go forward too, depending on early tempo.
All eyes will be on Winx to see where she gets to from a tricky draw, but we can expect her to display her champion qualities.
Selections
1. Winx
2. First Seal
3. Azkadellia
4. He or She
PS: Don’t forget to check out Brisburgh Phil’s extensive historical look at the Doncaster from earlier in the week.
The Australian Derby could almost be the forgot race on the first day of The Championships given we’ve got Exosphere v Chautauqua in the TJ Smith and Winx taking on all-comers in the Doncaster, but it looks to possess some superstar quality in its own right.
Tarzino could be the best-staying talent unearthed on these shores since Efficient, who claimed the Victorian Derby in 2006 and Melbourne Cup in 2007. That’s the level he’s playing at.
Efficient could only run fifth in the Australian Guineas in his autumn campaign between the Derby and the Cup, and was spelled thereafter. Tarzino went within a nose of winning that Guineas, but then progressed to Sydney to take out the Rosehill Guineas with consummate ease.
Montaigne was well beaten behind Tarzino there, but franked the form with a similar margin fourth in the BMW behind another star (and Vic Derby winner) Preferment.
If Tarzino produces his best, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t, you can make a case that any odds are good odds.
Tally is the legitimate danger, especially coming through a different formline, progressing through the grades nicely this prep. Tally and Tarzino met in the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley in the spring, both running on well against the bias of the day.
Palentino was Tarzino’s conqueror in the Australian Guineas, and Tally whipped that horse soundly last start in the Alastair Clark, so there is a tie-in there for Tally supporters.
The filly, Jameka, actually won the AAMI Vase thanks to a rails-hugging ride. What a form race it’s turned out to be!
She was a couple of lengths behind Tarzino in both the Australian Guineas and the Rosehill Guineas, and that looks about her level. She is very, very good, but Tarzino is a star.
Vanbrugh has been a further length or two behind Jameka in those two Guineas, and again, that seems to be his level.
Vanbrugh won the Spring Champion in the spring, but it’s clear that all the best staying three-year-olds were down in Melbourne, and he was able to pick off a weak field. The horses chasing him home back then have done nothing since.
There are few others to make any sort of case for.
Torgersen put himself on the map last week in the Tulloch Stakes with a barnstorming finish to fall a length short of Old North, and you could have a dollar or two on him, but you wouldn’t waste your money on anything else outside the main chances.
Etymology is building to another nice Derby finish but isn’t in Tarzino’s class, as we’ve seen a couple of times now. The New Zealand Derby form doesn’t look strong this year.
This race looks as cut-and-dried as any on the card, especially given the three favourites all have winning form on rain-affected ground. Horses aren’t robots, of course, but this one should go according to script.
Selections
1. Tarzino
2. Tally
3. Jameka
4. Torgersen
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