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The dominance of New Zealand sides in the new Super 18 format is worrying for South Africa and Australia, and threatens to derail the credibility of the entire competition.
New Zealand Herald rugby scribe Wynn Gray believes the “dominance of New Zealand sides highlights a weaker competition.”
On current results, and form, it is difficult to argue against this analysis.
New Zealand sides are, by and large, simply a class above.
The ‘class above’ that the New Zealand teams have shown in pace, and skill from 1-15 and the bench was on full display as the Chiefs utterly dismantled Australian conference leaders the Brumbies, and this was without one of the world’s best players, Brodie Retalick.
Even the lowest ranked New Zealand side on the ladder, the Blues, displayed some of the pace, ball handling and off-loading prowess against Argentina’s Jaguares.
Rene Ranger, fast returning to the imperious form that saw him selected for the All Blacks before he left for Europe, gave a sublime off-load to Ihia West who sprinted 30 metres to score the Blues second try.
The Hurricanes, after a dreadful performance against the Brumbies, have somehow found their mojo in the clubhouse locker room. Their fitness levels are back and even on the rise, no doubt through training sessions that rival the special forces. The result has been three victories on the trot.
The return of All Black hooker Dane Coles has strengthened their defence, scrum, and running game in the forwards, and no one throws the ball into a lineout better than Coles.
The Hurricanes’ immediate resurgence is despite a near season ending injury to All Black winger Nehe Milner Scudder and a naughty boy lay-off for the world’s premier winger Julian Savea. The latter was commanded to get rid of the Christmas pudding, and is set to return next week.
Mind you, it helps when you have a guy like Cory Jane to just step in, and keen to reassert himself after a season ending injury in 2015.
After the Hurricanes thumping at the hands of the Brumbies, I asked the question, “Were the Brumbies that good or the Hurricanes that bad?”
There is no doubt after the drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs, and the subsequent performances of the Hurricanes, all be it, against some of the weaker opposition, that is was largely the latter.
But that defeat at the hands of the Brumbies was one of only two that New Zealand sides have suffered against teams from other conferences. The second was the Chiefs loss to the Lions in a nail-biter.
All other games against opposition from rival conferences have resulted in 14 New Zealand wins and one draw.
If we look at the number of tries scored by the New Zealand sides, it tells a scary story.
Collectively the five New Zealand franchise are in a different league when itcomes to scoring tries against the opposition.
Of the Australian sides, only the Brumbies get a look in in the top five, coming in at number third with 21. The Chiefs are top-of-pops with a staggering 34, followed by the Crusaders with 21.
After the Brumbies is yet another New Zealand franchise, the Highlanders, with 20.
New Zealand franchises have crossed the line a ridiculous 103 times already this season. The combined total of the Australian sides is way below at 63 and the South African sides – I have taken out the lowest as there are six not five – is 74.
This means the New Zealand Conference is scoring almost 25-33 per cent more often than either the Australian or South African Conferences.
The key reasons for the difference is overall superior skill levels, pace across the park from 1-15, and great depth on their benches. So too (the Hurricanes aberration against the Brumbies aside) are their superior fitness levels as illustrated by the Chiefs with 20 minutes to go against the Brumbies.
Like the All Blacks, and perhaps more so this season than in previous years, New Zealand franchises can go up a level with 20 minutes to go that cannot be matched by opposition sides unless there are a lot of stoppages in the game in the second half. The Brumbies were run ragged on Saturday.
Only the Rebels seem to be able to go the distance in an 80-minute, high paced game, and even then, against New Zealand sides they still fall away.
It is also no surprise that four of the top five sides in the competition for off-loads come from New Zealand.
Put simply, from the All Blacks to their Super 18 franchises, New Zealand sides have higher skill levels across their entire squads.
As Rod Kafer stated on Fox Sports Rugby 360 program, “the All Black forwards pass more than any other pack in world.”
These skills are taught at grass roots and continued to be fine turned in their NPC, then into Super competition, and finally, the All Blacks.
On the same show, Phill Kearns was lamenting the lack of skills in Australian sides going as far as to say that “Our skill levels are dreadful”. A bit steep perhaps, but they are certainly not great across entire squads even if we can name certain individuals with good ball skills.
How to fix the problem is a major concern. The only saving grace for Australia is that the rest of the world is also way behind New Zealand in this regard, and even further than Australia, and even perhaps further than South Africa and Argentina as the World Cup semi-finals showed.
The disturbing fact is, and it does no credit to current Super 18 format, is that the biggest danger for New Zealand sides – is other New Zealand sides.
Watching the Conference’s current best side, the Brumbies, get mauled by the Chiefs, cannot have endeared fringe followers to watch the following week.
As one would expect, the skill levels and talent pool of New Zealand sides in the Super 18 competition has not gone unnoticed in the UK either.
Leading sports writer for London’s Daily Mail Chris Foy said “The stark fact is that New Zealand are showing no signs at all of relaxing their rugby stranglehold…The dominance could go on and on”. Foy also claimed performances by sides like the Chiefs “was already blowing the myth that the All Blacks would be in a rebuilding phase during 2016.”
We have heard talk in Australia of New Zealand being ripe for the picking in 2016, and that this season is the best chance the Wallabies have to reclaim the Bledisloe Cup.
On the current form shown by the New Zealand franchises and their endless talent pool of world-class players, I think this is pure wishful thinking, and dangerous at that.
And for those of you – and there are plenty in our Australian newspapers believe me – that claim Super form has no bearing on international form, well then here’s a reality check of the overall picture, not just a given year as some love to truck out as proof positive of this outrageously silly statement.
It is the big picture that really put this claim to the sword.
New Zealand sides have dominated Super Rugby in terms of number of sides making the finals and easily winning hands down, for instance look at the number of times a New Zealand side has won the competition over Australian and South African franchises.
Every New Zealand side has made the final at some point, and only one has never won it, the Hurricanes.
In the same time frame, the All Blacks have dominated the international arena, holding the Bledisloe Cup for 13 years.
They have won three grand slams 2005, 2008 and 2010. Australia did it last in 1984 and South Africa last in 1961.
New Zealand have become the first side to win back-to-back World Cups, and hold Old Bill aloft three times, and let’s not forget they lost only three games between World Cups which is simply mind boggling – even for the All Blacks.
And it is ominous to think the Wallabies recent wins of Tri-Nations 2011 and Rugby Championship 2015 both came in World Cup years when the Spring Boks and All Blacks rested players and tried new combinations.
South Africa even insulted everyone by sending a genuine B-Team down under in 2011 which the Wallabies and All Blacks subsequently spanked out of the park.
The victory in last year at least had a little more going for it than 2011.
So Super Rugby form has no bearing on international form?
And cows have no relationship with beef pies either?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.