Race 6 at Randwick on Saturday (2.35pm AEST) is the time honoured Australian Oaks for three year old fillies, formerly known as the AJC Oaks, and first staged in 1885.
A look at the recent winners of this race (past 13 years), doesn’t help a great deal in the analysis of this edition.
Interesting though that six of them did finish out of the placings at their prior start. I’m relying more on some form and video study to try to ascertain what seem to be the better chances this year.
Race tempo
We should see a truly run race, unlike the ATC Derby last week given that we have horses engaged that led in two of the lead up races- Self Esteem (Vinery), and Zasorceress (Adrian Knox).
I would also expect Believe to race a little more prominently than last start, and Jameka will be hadny to the speed, as she was in the Derby last week. Valley Girl should also be better than midfield in the early stages.
Track surface
It is a bit of a mystery at this stage but if we get no significant rain between now and Saturday then we might be looking at a Soft 5 track at best. So far this week it has been a similar scenario to what transpired in the days leading up to the Doncaster and ATC Derby day last Saturday.
The track didn’t dry out as most racing followers expected, and we may see history repeating this week. It would be very wise to factor in the wet track capabilities of all runners, and I suspect those that have proven they can get through a Slow 6 surface or worse could be advantaged. It may also test the stamina mettle of the whole field though having said that we have seen many recent winners run out a strong 2400m to win this race without any prior runs beyond 2000m.
Analysis
1. Jemeka – Seems a very tough filly who will handle the seven day backup from last week with her trainer Cieron Maher seemingly adamant she goes better the further she gets into her preparation.
He also points out that the Derby last week wasn’t run at a fast pace and probably hasn’t taken a lot out of her. She peaked to win the Crown Oaks at Flemington at her fifth run last preparation, and we see that situation arise again here.
She does have an awkward barrier so might need to find some cover early, but does look the one they all have to beat off her excellent second in the Derby last week.
2. Single Gaze – Scored a bit of a surprise win in the Vinery Stakes last start and seems very much the female equivalent of Criterion who won the 2014 Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby when most punters suspected he was a sprinter miler type given his breeding.
He finished 4.5 lengths astern in the Golden Slipper the previous year, and this filly finished four lengths astern. She wasn’t as dominant in the Vinery as he was in the Rosehill Guineas, but nevertheless she announced herself as an Oaks candidate, and she did win on a Soft 5 track prior at Kembla in the Arrowfield Classic (1600m).
Her sire does throw some good wet trackers, and it’s also interesting that Redaluca’s Gaze, did win at 1900m in her career and started a firm favourite at 2400m at her last racetrack start, where she was injured and finished unplaced. Her two other offspring have as yet been unable to win beyond 1500m. She is in great form and is capable of winning this race, and is going to be generous double figure odds again.
3. Honesta – Honesta was a well beaten second to Jameka in the Crown Oaks last Spring and needs to find a few lengths to win this on what we have seen.
Her run in the Vinery was OK though and she did win fourth up in the Spring. And she should handle a wet track at Randwick being a daughter of Monaco Consul who won the Champion Stakes here on a bog track as a three year old.
She could be the big improver here.
6. Valley Girl – Ran a nice second in the Vinery when positioned a lot closer to the speed than expected. Prior to that she ran a great race in the New Zealand derby beating home last weeks easy Australian Derby winner Tavago.
I’m not totally sure what to make of the form out of that race though given What’s The Story beat her home and finished well back behind Tavago last week. Maybe that horse was disadvantaged by arriving late last week though whereas Tavago had an extra week in the country.
She has won at WFA in New Zealand but it’s interesting that was a career best effort that was on a left handed track. Her record does read better so far in that direction. She also might be a superior horse at 2000m, and certainly so on a Soft 5 or better surface. There is no doubt she can be competitive in this race if she gets a surface to suit, and can run out the distance strongly.
7. Sofia Rosa is owned in the same interests, and carries the same colours as Lucia Valentina who ran third in the 2014 edition of this race.
The similarities don’t end there as both can handle all track conditions with a preference for wet surfaces, both have a slight question mark on them at 2400m and both like to race a little on the fresh side.
The most amazing thing is that both were described as very tough fillies at the same time in their careers, largely due to their ability to bounce back and race well after a fall at their previous start.
Incredibly, both of those falls happened at the same track and distance on the same day (albeit a different race). Lucia went on to run second at her next start in the Royal Stakes, but this filly went one better and won that race five days later.
She thrashed Valley Girl on a wet track in that race, and then went to Hastings and demolished her female rivals in the Lowland Stakes at 2100m.
That made her a very firm favourite for the New Zealand Oaks, and she actually did win that race before having it rescinded on protest.
I’ll be controversial and say it was a little contentious not having seen the head on, merely because she is a bit of a bulldog, and was in for the fight. Regardless it was a good run, on perhaps a drier surface than she would have preferred, and perhaps the winner Fanatic will make a good staying mare in the Spring.
A wet track is really going to suit her and she might just have the wood on the other New Zealand Fillies in this race ,with a seemingly better turn of foot. Hugh Bowman aboard is a bonus as it looks like she requires a strong jockey.
She has a tendency to be a little erratic at the finish of her races, and there is no better rider of 2400m races in the country than Bowman. No stone left unturned here, and she looks the ideal candidate for the race if she can run out a strong 2400m.
Is the fact she has been racing since August 2015 a negative or a positive? She is rock hard fit, but on the other hand her last start defeat could have been due to fatigue rather than the track condition.
10. Capella is the third of the New Zealand fillies in the race and another with a strong hope of winning. Her form is almost identical to that of Valley Girl though she has finished behind her at their past two meetings.
She has been a little unlucky both times though, as she has been further back in the straight, in races largely dominated by on pacers.
She hasn’t shown a lot of dash at her past two starts so I wonder about her ability against the best of her age and sex, and I’m not sure she is best suited on a wet track, so the drier the better for her perhaps. Definitely a winning hope if she gets a surface to suit.
12. Self Esteem isn’t out of the race after a good on pace effort to eventually finish fourth in the Vinery Stakes, beaten less than two lengths. She has won on a Heavy track and her dam Sounds Assertive was a half sister to a 2400m winner.
She also beat home quite a few older male gallopers when second to Ghost Protocol the start prior, so she is battle hardened, and likely to make her presence felt. She is one of two representing the quality stable of Peter and Paul Snowden and is going to be good double figure odds. Capable of surprising if they leave her alone in front.
13. Happy Hannah Is the more fancied stablemate of Self Esteem and has the form and breeding to take this race out.
She is related to 2003 winner Sunday Joy (mother is a half sister), and she was the Dam of the champion mare More Joyous. If she wins she would be the third filly to carry these silks and win since 2003 (John Singleton and Gerry Harvey).
Aside from that her run in the Vinery when third was the eyecatcher of the race. She was finishing off better than any other horse, and was the filly most disadvantaged by the way the race was run (slow overall time but fast last 600m).
She would seem to have all the fillies out of that race covered (in this race), if she handles the prevailing track conditions and runs out a strong 2400m. She is the untapped talent, and seems to be on an upward spiral.
The stable says she will handle a wet track, and it appears more likely than not that she will, given she has already placed on a soft 5 surface. Her chances look very appealing with Blake Shinn aboard.
Conclusion
These would appear to be the best chances. I haven’t analysed any runner out of the Adrian Knox Stakes last start, because it looked a week edition, and the overall time turned out to be well below average. Hopefully that is the right decision.
I find it relatively easy to settle on a top three here, but in what order? As is my normal stance I’ll go with the value chance on top, but it’s a toss of the coin job really, and any of the three could win.
Single Gaze could also surprise at odds (as Criterion did in his Derby), that seem genuine overs. Below is my top four with the odds I think they should be.
1. Sofia Rosa $6
2. Happy Hannah $4.50
3. Jameka $3.50
4. Single Gaze $9
Bet suggestion
I’m not overly keen to have Win or Each Way bets in this race given there is very little between the top three chances on paper. But the $8 odds about Sofia Rosa does seem value while Jameka and Happy Hannah are close to their correct odds.
At least a saver bet on Single Gaze could be recommended, and trifectas and first fours look attainable.
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