Day 2 of The Championships is upon us. Yesterday we looked at the Sydney Cup and Queen of the Turf, and today we get to the big one, the Queen Elizabeth, and the Australian Oaks.
I copped some stick in the comments yesterday for intimating that the Queen Elizabeth wasn’t of the highest quality this year. I stand by it, but this is more due to circumstances than anything else. Outside of Winx, we probably do have the best of what is available.
The favourite, The United States, is a horse that only has one Group 1 victory, which was last start. Prior to that his best win was a Moonee Valley Cup, and he was the sort of horse that couldn’t win races like the Naturalism and JRA Cup when down in the weights over 2000m in the spring.
The second favourite, Criterion, has been beaten by a combined 17 lengths at his last three starts.
Two other horses at single figure odds are Lucia Valentina, who has one win from 14 starts in the last 18 months and has never gone close to victory in Group 1 weight-for-age racing, and Hauraki, who has one stakes win in his career, over a year ago.
So let’s not pretend this is a glittering array of stars reaching a $4 million race in peak form.
The United States has come from nowhere, and improves at every start. Not even in Queen Elizabeth calculations a fortnight ago, he is now the horse to beat.
Criterion supporters think he can get back to his best on a soft track, but hasn’t looked like a horse ready to turn it around. Some horses don’t come back from a Melbourne Cup run, particularly if they are not true stayers.
Preferment should be the rightful horse to beat, if he can handle whatever going is provided. His four Group 1 wins have all been on good tracks, but he did win the Hill Stakes, possibly his most amazing win, on a soft 7. Is dropping back from 2400m ideal for him? It’s a Dundeel won this race coming back from the BMW.
Lucia Valentina has had an unusual preparation, and strikes this second-up. We know she’s capable of a devastating turn of foot when on the fresh side, as well as when there’s give in the track. She’s a player, and 2000m is her best distance.
Hauraki is uber-consistent, but has been a bridesmaid a lot over the last 12 months. He might just be able to pinch this, and whichever horse wins will be made to earn it by beating him.
Happy Clapper and It’s Somewhat are in form handicappers. Do we really want horse from the Villiers in December winning a race that is hoping to rival the Cox Plate as the weight-for-age championship of Australia?
Four horses from Preferment’s Australian Cup win are at big odds, most of which have better weight-for-age credentials than some at half their odds. That race was run at a farcically slow pace, and two lengths covered the first eight horses home.
Awesome Rock was the big surprise in second, only losing the race on an unjust protest after trying to lead all the way. He’s found a new lease of life in his four-year-old autumn, and can provide nuisance value if allowed to dictate from the front.
Rising Romance has been placed four times at Group 1 WFA, as well as in a Caulfield Cup, but she’s a hard mare to catch these days. She’s rarely far away, but only has one win, a New Zealand handicap, from her last 18 starts.
Fenway has a Group 1 win over First Seal at 2000m, has strong formlines through the likes of Preferment, Bow Creek and Azkadellia, and is hugely over the odds at 50-1. She’s closer to a $17 chance in this field, and is a great each-way bet for those that like to back a bolter to run well.
Happy Trails hasn’t had a drink from the keg of glory since his Mackinnon Stakes win in 2014, but he’s still capable of springing a surprise. His run was much better than it reads on paper in the Australian Cup, and he’s big odds for a horse that’s been beaten less than a length in two Cox Plates.
Dibayani was well beaten behind The United States and Hauraki in the Ranvet, but his run behind Winx the start before, when beating home Preferment and Hauraki quite comfortably, says he’s in this race too, and is another at big odds.
Mongolian Khan hasn’t come up, and shouldn’t still be racing. Send him home for rest and recuperation, and see if he can return to his best. If Leebaz or Weary win, we can all go home.
Preferment ticks the most boxes, in terms of class, distance, track conditions, trainer, jockey, and versatility of racing style. There’s some value to be had around him.
Selections
1. Preferment
2. Fenway
3. The United States
4. Lucia Valentina
The Australian Oaks is a worth support feature on Day 2 of The Championships, and in recent years we’ve seen winners that have gone on to become competitive weight-for-age horses.
Jameka is the favourite here, and what a tough and honest filly she is.
She’s never shied away from taking on the boys, doing so in Group 1 races her last three starts, for a series of improving returns as she’s stepped up in distance – fifth in the Australian Guineas, third in the Rosehill Guineas, and second in the ATC Derby. She beat Tarzino in the AAMI Vase in the spring, splitting her Thousand Guineas second and VRC Oaks win. She even beat the boys as a two-year-old, in the VRC Sires Produce.
Her Oaks win was on a heavy track, where she cleared out to win quite easily, so whatever conditions are presented on the day won’t phase her. She’s been handed the visitors draw, but has the professionalism and versatility to overcome it.
After last week’s Derby, Damien Oliver quipped that Ciaron Maher just had to keep Jameka breathing in order for her to win the Oaks. I think he’s right.
The Vinery Stud is the key lead-up race to the Oaks, and eight runners are coming from it.
Happy Hannah was the eye-catcher from the race, finishing fast into third, and looking every bit the filly crying out for further in the last 100m when she looked ready to launch.
The first two horses home, Single Gaze and Valley Girl, both sat in box seats behind the speed and were given every chance. Self Esteem led, and ran well finishing fourth, but couldn’t hold off the others late. To the naked eye, none look likely to beat Happy Hannah home here.
Honesta was good behind those horses, tracking Happy Hannah into the straight, but unable to quite go past her or with her. She ran second to Jameka in the VRC Oaks and can be somewhere there again.
Capella was the less obvious excellent run out of the race. Sitting just in front of Happy Hannah in the run, she took off wide and early to go around the field, rather than through it like Happy Hannah did. She ran on strongly in the straight, tiring in the last 100m as the work told. She can be there.
The Adrian Knox Stakes is the other key lead-up to the Oaks, providing up to five runners, including the first four home there. It’s usually seen as the inferior form reference to the Vinery Stud, which is the case here.
Diamond Made won the race at big odds, decisively from Alaskan Rose, who was too far back. Sacred Eye ran well under a big weight, and meets those fillies up to 5kg’s better at set weights, which brings her back into calculations.
Sofia Rosa has made the trip across the Tasman, and will be respected after narrowly losing the New Zealand Oaks as hot favourite. She’d won three in a row, outside a fall, and is a tough, talented filly.
The Tasmanian Oaks winner, Chabaud, might be a value horse for multiples, coming from a completely different formline and crying out for 2400m. She’s taken on older horses and three-year-old boys with aplomb, disadvantaged at the weights, and is worthy of respect.
Selections
1. Jameka
2. Capella
3. Happy Hannah
4. Sofia Rosa
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